Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Holds $67K as Market Eyes $50K Flush or $100K Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – price reset around $67,000 after a late-cycle shakeout

Macro backdrop, jobs shock and why BTC is pinned near $67,000

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades in a tight band around $67,000–$67,500, up roughly 1%–2% on the day but still down about 4%–5% versus a week ago and almost 30% below the cycle peak just under $98,000. The move comes directly after a U.S. jobs report that printed 130,000 new payrolls versus expectations around 65,000, with unemployment at 4.3% instead of the 4.4% most desks anticipated and average hourly earnings up 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year. The initial reaction in rates was clear: the 10-year Treasury yield jumped toward 4.20% from roughly 4.15%, and probabilities for a March cut collapsed from around the low-20% region to mid-single digits. BTC slipped roughly 3% on that release toward the $66,000–$67,000 zone as the market repriced to “higher for longer” once again. Beneath the headline jobs strength, benchmark revisions cut about 898,000 positions from the March 2025 count and dragged the whole 2025 trend lower, which means the historical labor picture is softer than the market believed for most of last year. BTC now sits exactly between a still-solid January print and a downgraded 2025 baseline, which is why price is stuck around $67,000 instead of already breaking either $60,000 or $75,000.

Big-bank roadmap – final flush toward $50,000 before a run at $100,000

One major global bank that has been consistently vocal on digital assets now expects one more capitulation phase before the next leg higher. Its digital-asset desk sees BTC-USD sliding to about $50,000 “or just below” and ETH-USD toward $1,400 in the coming months as macro pressure and ETF fatigue bite. Those downside marks imply roughly a 26% drawdown from the current $67,000 area for BTC and more than 25% from current levels for ETH around $1,950–$2,000. Importantly, those same analysts still carry year-end targets around $100,000 for BTC and $4,000 for ETH after trimming prior projections of $150,000 and $7,500. In other words, the house view has shifted from a straight line higher to a two-step pattern: a controlled washout toward $50,000, then a grind toward six-figure territory as rates eventually fall and ETF flows re-accelerate. The message for BTC is simple: downside toward $50,000 is not framed as structural failure, it is framed as the final entry zone for a march back toward the top of the range and beyond.

ETF flows and liquidity – orderly outflows, not a stampede

The short-term tape in BTC-USD is driven heavily by ETF behavior. Aggregate spot-BTC ETF holdings are now roughly 25% below their peak mark-to-market value for the average holder, and there was a net outflow of about $276 million across all spot products in one of the latest sessions, with another single-day outflow near $122 million cited in derivatives and flow commentary. That is not panic, but it is distinct from the consistent multi-billion inflows that powered the initial rally. With flows now slightly negative and price 4%–5% lower over the week, many ETF accounts are in mild drawdown. That positioning explains why “buy the dip” has not appeared aggressively; marginal holders are more likely to reduce exposure into strength while waiting for better macro clarity. The same institution flagging a path to $50,000 explicitly notes that ETF owners, down around a quarter from peak, are more inclined to sell rallies than to average down while the macro picture is unresolved.

Derivatives, leverage and sentiment – compressed positioning, neutral mood

Derivatives positioning has already absorbed a significant shock. Open interest in BTC futures across major venues has shrunk toward roughly $44–$45 billion from peaks north of $80 billion earlier in the cycle, meaning more than 40% of speculative leverage has bled out. Long liquidations on down days have reached into the hundreds of millions of dollars, but the liquidations are spread across sessions rather than concentrated in a single capitulation candle. Funding rates have normalised from extreme positive prints back toward flat, and the popular crypto fear-and-greed barometer has shifted from “extreme greed” back into a neutral zone. That combination—lower open interest, neutral sentiment and normalised funding—indicates that the aggressive speculative froth has been largely cleared. BTC is no longer sitting on a mountain of leveraged longs that would force a crash on every $2,000 downtick, but it also no longer enjoys euphoric momentum. The structure is closer to a reset midfield position than to either goal line.

Macro risk, CPI and the Warsh factor – why policy timing matters for BTC

Macro is still the primary driver. Inflation for January is expected to print around 0.3% month-on-month for both headline and core, which would translate into roughly 2.5% annualised readings. A softer number would allow rate-cut probabilities later in 2026 to rebuild; a hotter figure would reinforce the current “no cuts under the current Fed chair” narrative and keep BTC under pressure. A major research desk at a large bank has gone as far as saying the latest jobs report is a “feast for the hawks” and makes cuts under the current chair unlikely, pushing the focus to a potential leadership change toward mid-year. From their point of view, a near-term cut path under a new chair such as Warsh narrows if the unemployment rate falls further below 4.3% by June. BTC sits directly inside this debate. A backdrop where the jobless rate drifts higher and inflation cools is one where BTC can push back above $70,000 and re-test $74,000–$75,000; a backdrop where unemployment falls and inflation remains sticky is one where $60,000–$52,000 gets tested before any attempt at new highs.

Technical structure – compression between $60,000 support and $74,000 resistance

The technical map on BTC-USD is clean and quantified. After rejecting near the $97,970 swing high, BTC plunged roughly 13% in a historic two-day move, found macro support in the $60,104 region and then bounced hard. The rebound stalled underneath the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around $69,040, which is now acting as the first real resistance pivot. Above that, the next Fibonacci magnets stand near $74,569 (0.382 retracement) and $79,037 (0.5 retracement). Until $69,000 is reclaimed and held, any move into the low-$70,000s is just a test of overhead supply. On the downside, the first near-term line is the $66,000 shelf. This matches the 50-day moving average region and lines up with breakout zones flagged across multiple independent analyses. A decisive break under roughly $65,800–$66,000 exposes $64,000 first and then a broader demand pocket down at $60,000–$60,500. A close below $67,000 on a weekly basis has already forced some Elliott-wave practitioners to reconsider bullish counts, with one read now targeting support around $52,000 as the next structural floor if $60,000 fails. At current prices near $67,000, that $52,000 level is just under 23% lower, a drawdown entirely consistent with late-cycle crypto corrections.

Short-term scenarios – three paths traders are actually pricing

Price action and positioning describe three plausible paths for BTC-USD in the coming weeks. In a “higher-for-longer grind” scenario, jobs remain strong, inflation cools only slowly, and cuts stay off the table. In that environment, the 10-year yield remains anchored in the low-4% range or higher, risk assets de-rate further, and BTC is capped below $69,000 with a wide trading range between roughly $60,000 and $70,000. In a “delayed slowdown” scenario, the nearly 900,000-job downward revision to 2025 proves to be the first sign of broader weakening, later reports show softer hiring, inflation pushes closer to 2%, and cut expectations pull forward. Under that path, BTC has room to reclaim $69,000, accelerate through $70,000 and squeeze shorts toward $74,000–$79,000 as ETF flows stabilise. In a “liquidity squeeze” scenario, growth looks just strong enough to delay easing but just fragile enough to scare risk markets; the result is intermittent spikes in yields, repeated ETF outflows and a modest recession probability premium. That is the path that delivers the bank’s $50,000 target, with BTC slicing through $60,000 support and forcing long-duration holders to absorb another 20%–25% drawdown before the next leg higher.

On-chain and supply dynamics – mild exchange inflows, long-term holders still firm

On-chain metrics confirm a market that is stressed but not broken. Exchange inflows of BTC-USD have ticked higher versus recent months, signalling that some holders are sending coins back to trading venues, which is typically associated with potential selling. At the same time, aggregate supply held off exchanges remains elevated compared with prior cycle peaks, and long-term holder balances are still slowly rising. That combination—more coins drifting toward exchanges while deep-pocketed addresses continue to accumulate—matches a controlled distribution phase rather than a cascade. Miner data also points to resilience. Hash rate is hovering at or near record highs, confirming that mining operators are not shutting down rigs en masse even with price below $70,000. On the ETH side of the ledger, staking participation continues to grow and locks more ETH out of liquid circulation; that dynamic indirectly supports BTC by anchoring the broader large-cap crypto complex.

ETF, CPI and intraday levels – $66,000 and $70,000 as the real intraday battlefield

Short-term, the battle in BTC-USD is happening between two very specific levels. Around $66,000 sits a cluster of supports: the 50-day moving average, prior breakout levels and a region identified repeatedly as the first demand zone by discretionary desks and systematic models. This level has already been tested, with BTC dropping briefly toward that figure before stabilising. Just above, near $68,150, price has hovered while markets position into the January CPI release. On the topside, $70,000 is the first real cap, a level that rejected prior rallies and now marks the boundary between a healthy consolidation and a renewed push toward resistance at $74,000–$75,000. A clean break above $70,000 with volume expansion and improving ETF flows would unlock that higher band; a rejection at $70,000 into another CPI disappointment would push BTC back through $66,000 and down toward $64,000 with $60,000 as the deeper catch zone.

Cross-asset context – BTC lagging equities, but still tracking macro risk closely

Relative performance versus traditional markets matters for BTC-USD because it is no longer an isolated sandbox asset. With BTC near $67,000, large-cap U.S. indices are pointing slightly higher, with Dow futures up over 100 points, S&P 500 futures adding close to 19 points and Nasdaq futures up over 50 points in one of the latest pre-market snapshots. Over the last week, BTC has underperformed those indices, reflecting the impact of ETF outflows, fear readings in crypto sentiment surveys and persistent liquidations in leveraged positions. At the same time, correlation remains positive: when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq catch a bid on easier inflation prints or dovish signals, BTC tends to recover as well. Weakness in high-beta growth and AI-linked tech names has spilled into digital assets as well, because both sit in the same risk bucket when global liquidity is recalibrated. BTC is behaving like a high-beta macro instrument rather than a pure “digital gold” hedge in this environment.

Altcoin and crypto-equity signals – how ETH, XRP, MSTR and COIN frame BTC risk

Price action in other majors and in crypto-exposed equities reinforces the idea that BTC-USD is in a controlled correction rather than a collapse. ETH-USD trades around $1,950–$1,990, up about 1.9% in the latest session, with clear support at $1,850 and a resistance band at $2,000–$2,100. A break above $2,100 would signal renewed momentum; a drop below $1,850 opens $1,750 and then roughly $1,690 near the lower Bollinger Band. XRP-USD changes hands near $1.38–$1.40, up roughly 2%, hugging support around $1.35 with upside potential toward $1.60 if the $1.45 area gives way; failure of $1.35 would turn the focus to about $1.28. In listed proxies, MicroStrategy (MSTR) trades in the mid-$120s around $126.14 with a modest pre-market gain near 1.1%, while Coinbase (COIN) sits near $153–$154, up roughly 0.7% in pre-market quotes. Those stocks remain tightly coupled to BTC direction. MicroStrategy’s plan to issue additional perpetual preferred stock is effectively a leveraged bet on the BTC balance sheet, and continuing demand for those securities shows institutional capital is still comfortable with long-term BTC exposure despite near-term volatility.

Sentiment, fear and structural resilience – why this drawdown is different from 2022

Even the more bearish institutional commentary stresses that the current downturn in BTC-USD is structurally gentler than the 2022 washout. There has been no blow-up of a major exchange, no collapse of a flagship lending platform and no systemic de-pegging of a core stablecoin in this episode. Crypto sentiment indices have slid from greed into neutral and in some cases into “fear,” but not into the extreme panic seen during prior crises. A smaller lender has halted withdrawals, which is a reminder that credit risk is still part of the landscape, yet the core market infrastructure has remained intact. The total crypto market capitalisation is still around $2.4 trillion, with BTC near $67,233, ETH near $1,975 and XRP under $2. Long-term research desks continue to discuss end-of-cycle BTC targets in the $85,000–$100,000 zone rather than slashing projections back to $20,000–$30,000. That tone reflects a maturing asset class that can absorb a 20%–30% correction without triggering existential questions every few months.

Medium-term forecasts – model targets and late-cycle upside potential

Quantitative models tracking BTC-USD from a factor and alternative-data angle are broadly consistent with the big-bank roadmap. One AI-driven framework pegs a one-month fair-value target near $71,400 and a 12-month target just under $97,800, while assigning BTC a mid-range quality score around the high-50s on its internal scale. Those numbers align closely with discretionary calls for BTC around $100,000 by the end of 2026 once the current drawdown has run its course. Put simply, the systematic world sees room for a roughly 6% upside pop toward the low-$70,000s over the next month if support levels hold, and potential upside of about 45% from current prices over a 12-month horizon. That upside is not guaranteed; it depends on ETF flows stabilising, CPI prints behaving and global liquidity cycling back into risk assets. But it shows that model-driven capital has not abandoned BTC; it has simply lowered its trajectory from “straight-line parabolic” to a more realistic step pattern with deeper corrections.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – Buy, Sell or Hold and bias: bullish or bearish?

Putting price, macro, flow and positioning together, the stance on BTC-USD is as follows. With BTC around $67,000, support at $66,000 and deeper support at $60,000–$60,500, the risk of a further slide into the low-$60,000s or even toward $52,000 on a weekly break is real and quantified. ETF outflows, slower inflows, a 10-year yield cycling around 4.2% and a March cut probability near zero keep pressure on all high-beta assets. At the same time, leverage has already been flushed down from over $80 billion to about the mid-$40 billions in open interest, sentiment has cooled from euphoria to neutral, exchange supply remains muted versus prior cycles, and credible desks still see BTC at $97,000–$100,000 on a 12- to 18-month horizon. That mix argues against panic selling at current levels and against chasing every short-term bounce. The rational stance at these prices is HOLD with a medium-term bullish bias, treating any deep extension into the $60,000–$52,000 band as a high-risk, high-reward accumulation zone rather than a reason to abandon the asset. BTC is not in a fresh euphoric uptrend, but it is not in a structural bear market either; it is in a late-cycle shakeout where patience and precise level-based execution matter more than narratives.

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