Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Holds 50,000 While S&P 500 Steadies and Nasdaq Sinks on Cisco & AppLovin Rout, CPI Looms

Stock Market Today – Dow grinds higher while Nasdaq absorbs AI and software damage

Indices and cross-asset snapshot – rotation with no panic

The equity tape is split but orderly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) trades near 50,180–50,190, up around 0.1%–0.2% after a prior session dip, and clearly outperforms the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC). The S&P 500 sits roughly at 6,930, down about 0.1%–0.2%, while the Nasdaq slips toward 22,930–22,940, off about 0.5%–0.6%. Small caps are essentially flat, with the Russell 2000 around 2,667, down roughly 0.1%. On the macro side, the 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.144%, the dollar index sits around 94.07, and the VIX hovers near 17.5 and is lower on the day. That combination—Dow leadership, softer Nasdaq, calm volatility and a steady 10-year—shows rotation, not risk-off.

Labor market, claims and CPI – growth is firm, cuts get pushed out

The January employment report remains the anchor for the macro narrative. Nonfarm payrolls rose by about 130,000 versus expectations around 65,000, almost exactly double the consensus. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%, instead of staying flat as economists expected. At the same time, revisions knocked roughly 400,000 jobs out of the 2025 total, leaving last year’s average monthly gain closer to 15,000. The latest weekly data confirm that the labor market is still tight rather than cracking. Initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the week ended Feb. 7, slightly above expectations near 223,000–225,000 and a modest decline from 232,000 the previous week. Continuing claims rose to about 1.86 million from 1.84 million, again a touch above forecasts around 1.85 million. The four-week moving average for claims is at its lowest level since early October 2024, which is not a recession signal. This backdrop pushes more weight onto Friday’s CPI release. Economists expect both headline and core to print around 0.3% month-on-month, keeping annual inflation near the 2.5% band. A softer number re-opens the door to two rate cuts later this year; another hot surprise on top of a 130,000 payroll gain and 4.3% unemployment makes a long pause more likely.

Cyclical tilt – Walmart, Boeing and GE Vernova carry the Dow

Inside the Dow, the rotation into economically sensitive names is clear. Walmart (WMT) adds about 2% as markets reward its mix of traffic resilience and value positioning. Boeing (BA) climbs roughly 3%, extending a rebound as the market leans into global travel demand and aircraft replacement cycles despite ongoing headline risk. GE Vernova (GEV) is up around 1%, reflecting demand for grid upgrades and energy-transition infrastructure tied to the same AI and electrification themes that support chip and data-center spending. Those moves matter because they show where capital is going when investors step out of stretched software and high-multiple tech. This is not a wholesale dash into defensives; it is a reweighting into tangible cash-flow stories that benefit from a “no-recession, slower-disinflation” macro path.

AI infrastructure and networking – Cisco punished for guidance and margin math

The earnings tape around Cisco Systems (CSCO) explains much of the Nasdaq underperformance. Cisco actually beat on headline numbers: adjusted EPS around $0.80 versus roughly $0.74 expected and revenue near $15.3 billion versus about $15.1 billion forecast, a top-line increase of roughly 10% year-on-year. Orders tied to AI data centers are real; management is talking about more than $5 billion in AI orders and over $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue to be recognized through fiscal 2026. The problem is the forward curve. Full-year revenue guidance is now $61.2–$61.7 billion, versus prior guidance nearer $60.2–$61.0 billion and Street estimates closer to $62.1 billion. Full-year EPS is guided to $3.00–$3.08, under a consensus around $3.12. The margin commentary is what the tape is punishing. Next-quarter non-GAAP gross margin is guided around the mid-60s, roughly 65.5%–66.5%, against expectations in the high-60s near 68%. Memory costs and mix toward AI hardware are squeezing profitability in the near term. With CSCO already up about 11% year-to-date going into the print, this gap versus expectations triggered a drop of roughly 9%–10%, dragging the stock toward the mid-$70s and putting pressure on peers tied to enterprise networking, including Dell, HPE and Arista, even though those names have not yet reported. The message from the market is simple: AI demand alone is no longer enough; investors now demand upside on both revenue and margins to maintain premium valuations.

App economy and ad-tech – AppLovin’s growth story collides with multiple compression

The other big loser on the day is AppLovin (APP). The numbers on their own are strong. Quarterly revenue came in around $1.66 billion, roughly 66% higher than a year earlier and above estimates closer to $1.60 billion. Adjusted EPS of about $3.24 beat expectations under $3.00 and nearly doubled on a year-over-year basis. Free cash flow surged toward $1.3 billion. Guidance for the next quarter points to revenue roughly in the $1.745–$1.775 billion band, broadly in line to slightly ahead of consensus. Despite that, APP trades down around 18% on the session, near $371, and is off close to 30%–40% over the past month. High-multiple ad-tech and software names are now being re-rated aggressively on any hint that growth might normalize, that AI-based disruption of the ad stack could redistribute profits, or that competition could cap margin expansion. The reaction to AppLovin is a direct extension of the same theme seen in Cisco: markets have moved from rewarding raw growth to demanding clean visibility on sustainable profitability and competitive positioning in an AI-saturated narrative.

Global consumer and QSR – McDonald’s, Restaurant Brands and AB InBev vs Magnum and Kraft Heinz

On the consumer side, numbers separate winners from names still on the wrong side of structural shifts. McDonald’s (MCD) posted quarterly revenue of about $7.01 billion, up 10% year-on-year and ahead of expectations near $6.84 billion. Adjusted EPS landed around $3.12 versus roughly $3.05 forecast. Global same-store sales growth of about 5.7% shows that the combination of value menus, digital ordering and loyalty remains powerful. Loyalty-driven system-wide sales reached roughly $37 billion last year, up around 20%. The stock is oscillating around flat to marginally up because investors are balancing those metrics against a rich valuation and a heavy capex program of roughly $3.7–$3.9 billion to open about 2,600 new locations, with operating margins guided in the mid- to high-40s versus 46.1% in 2025. At the same time, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) delivered revenue of about $2.47 billion against a $2.41 billion consensus and EPS of roughly $0.96 per share versus expectations near $0.95, lifting the stock modestly as Burger King’s parent continues to execute on menu and operational upgrades. Beverages tell a similar story. Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) beat with underlying EPS around $0.95 versus $0.90 expected and revenue about $15.56 billion versus roughly $14.95 billion forecast. Critically, no- and low-alcohol beer revenue grew about 34% in 2025 while mainstream beer revenue was flat, confirming that the internal portfolio is shifting toward formats aligned with changing consumption patterns. In contrast, Magnum Ice Cream (MICC)—the pure-play ice-cream group spun from Unilever—dropped roughly 12% after reporting a 3% sales decline and lower 2025 profit. That miss immediately reignited GLP-1 concerns for a category heavily tied to indulgence rather than functionality, even as management points to low-calorie and high-protein options and portion-controlled formats like Magnum Bonbons. Staples face pressure in another corner as well. Kraft Heinz (KHC) was cut to underweight by JPMorgan with a new price target of $22 against a current price around $24.41. The downgrade cites persistent growth challenges and execution questions, even though the stock is up about 3% since January but down roughly 13% over twelve months. The read-through is that brand strength alone is no longer enough to defend multiples in slower-growth staples when rate cuts are being pushed out.

Healthcare and pharma – Baxter guidance shock and Sanofi leadership surprise

Healthcare is not acting like a safe haven. Baxter International (BAX) dropped around 11% after issuing 2026 adjusted EPS guidance between $1.85 and $2.05 per share, well below the Street average near $2.25. Hurricane-related problems at a key manufacturing plant are weighing on production and margins; the result is a valuation reset that reflects lower earnings power and operational risk. In big-cap pharma, Sanofi (SNY) slid roughly 6% after the board removed CEO Paul Hudson unexpectedly and thanked him for his contributions without providing a detailed explanation. For a large, globally exposed drug maker grappling with U.S. price pressure and European cost controls, a surprise leadership change introduces another layer of uncertainty on pipeline prioritization, cost programs and potential negotiations with governments. The sector is still defensive at the index level, but these individual disappointments show that stock selection inside healthcare is now critical.

Tariffs, autos and trade-sensitive staples – Mercedes-Benz, Scotch whisky and the broader policy drag

Trade and tariff policy are producing visible losers. Mercedes-Benz Group reported that last year’s profit almost halved under the combined weight of U.S. tariffs, intense EV competition in China and the cost of reducing its German workforce. The company expects another difficult year in 2026 as a full twelve months of tariff costs roll through the P&L and Chinese demand remains pressured, even as other regions grow. Its stock is weak in Frankfurt trading as investors recalibrate margin and free-cash-flow assumptions. Tariffs are also hitting consumer staples in more subtle ways. U.S. imports of Scotch whisky fell more than 9% by volume and 4% by value last year, according to the Scotch Whisky Association. That drop speaks directly to how quickly targeted tariffs can erode demand in premium discretionary categories. The winners, again, are diversified beverage names with multiple levers—like AB InBev’s low- and no-alcohol beers—rather than single-category exporters tied to tariff-sensitive markets.

AI build-out vs infrastructure limits – Micron, Samsung and the power-grid bottleneck

Underneath today’s price action in semiconductors and hardware is a growing policy and infrastructure problem for AI. Federal and state lawmakers are beginning to push back against runaway data-center power and water usage. A bipartisan Senate bill sponsored by Josh Hawley and Richard Blumenthal is designed to prevent AI data-center electricity demand from being passed through to residential consumers. At the state level, New York is now at least the sixth state where legislators are considering a pause on new data-center construction, a move that would effectively lock the state out of the next leg of AI-infrastructure investment if enacted. For the companies building the AI stack, this marks a transition from pure opportunity to a more complex environment where location, regulatory risk and energy sourcing become central to valuation. Despite that, hardware suppliers at the heart of the memory cycle are trading firm today. Micron Technology (MU) is up around 3% as its CEO plays down competitive threats and reiterates confidence in the demand outlook for high-bandwidth memory. In Asia, Samsung Electronics rallied after becoming the first vendor to ship a new generation of advanced AI memory chips to Nvidia (NVDA), helping to push South Korea’s Kospi to another record high. The direction is clear: AI-driven capex remains a powerful engine for earnings, but markets are beginning to price in the real-world constraints—the grid, water and local politics—that will shape the pace and location of that expansion.

Commodities and digital assets – oil, gold and Bitcoin digest mixed macro signals

Energy and metals are trading around macro headlines rather than setting them. Brent crude (BZ=F) trades near $68.68 a barrel, down roughly 1.0% on the day, while WTI (CL=F) sits around $63.97, off about 1.02%. Even with today’s dip, crude has risen in most weeks so far this year, supported by geopolitical risk premia tied to U.S.–Iran tensions and U.S. involvement in Venezuela, coupled with protests and uncertainty in key producing regions. At the same time, fundamentals are far from tight. U.S. crude inventories jumped about 8.5 million barrels last week to the highest levels since June, and the International Energy Agency is expected to again highlight a looming surplus in its latest report. Gold is adjusting to the same rate narrative that is pressuring high-duration growth stocks. April 2026 COMEX gold (GC=F) sits around $5,088–$5,089 per ounce, down roughly 0.2% after a 1.2% gain in the previous session. The metal remains well above $5,000 and has recovered about half of the 13% plunge that followed the late-January spike to record highs above $5,595. Stronger jobs data and the resulting delay in rate-cut expectations are capping the upside near term. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades close to $67,800, up around 0.4%. That price, alongside a modest drop in the S&P GSCI commodity index to around 591.10 (down about 0.39%), confirms that cross-asset risk sentiment is constructive instead of euphoric. There is no broad inflation scare, but there is also no rush back into defensive metals.

Global equity markets – DAX and Kospi set the pace while FTSE 100 fades from a record

Outside the U.S., equity indices are putting in strong sessions. Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) trades above 25,100, up around 1.1%, supported by a roughly 6% jump in Siemens (SIE.DE) after the company raised its 2026 earnings guidance on robust demand for data-center infrastructure and factory automation. France’s CAC 40 (^FCHI) is up about 1%, helped by more than a 6% rally in EssilorLuxottica (EL.PA) after it flagged strong revenue potential in smart glasses and expanded its partnership with Meta Platforms (META). The pan-European Stoxx 600 adds around 0.3% after hitting a record in the prior session, and the Euro Stoxx 50 and Swiss SMI also push to new highs. In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi jumps roughly 3% to another all-time high, powered by Samsung Electronics on the back of AI-memory shipments. Japan’s Topix index notches a new record even as the Nikkei 225 moves sideways. The one laggard is the FTSE 100, which touched a fresh record but then backed off as earnings from consumer staples heavyweights like Unilever and British American Tobacco disappointed. The net read is that global risk appetite remains strong, with Europe and Asia now outpacing the U.S. in terms of making fresh highs, largely because their indexes are more heavily geared to industrials, exporters and AI-infrastructure suppliers rather than crowded software and ad-tech names.

Earnings on deck – Coinbase, Applied Materials and Rivian set the tone for growth and AI capex

The next catalyst set is concentrated in three names. Coinbase Global (COIN) will report against a backdrop where BTC-USD is near $68,000 and spot Bitcoin ETFs have captured a meaningful share of institutional flows. The key question is whether trading volumes, take rates and cost discipline are strong enough to support further rerating after this year’s crypto rally. Applied Materials (AMAT) is the critical print for the AI-hardware supply chain. Order trends and commentary around wafer-fab equipment, leading-edge nodes and high-bandwidth memory tooling will either confirm the multi-year AI capex investment cycle or trigger a round of profit-taking across the semiconductor complex. Rivian (RIVN) faces scrutiny on cash burn, production guidance and pricing discipline in a saturated EV market. Any sign that scaling to positive gross margins is slipping will feed directly into sentiment on unprofitable growth names more broadly. These three reports collectively will influence how investors treat high-beta growth, AI-linked hardware and speculative thematics over the next leg.

Cross-asset signals – banks, volatility and whether the rally is exhausted or just rotating

Breadth is mixed but not signaling a top. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index trades near 169.93, down roughly 0.86%, reflecting mild pressure on financials as the market pushes out its rate-cut timetable. That weakness is modest, not disorderly. The 10-year yield at about 4.144% and a VIX near 17.50 are consistent with a market that is consolidating gains rather than reversing trend. At the same time, the S&P 500 around 6,930 and the Dow above 50,000 already discount a soft landing with moderate earnings growth. The way the tape is trading—Dow strength, Nasdaq softness, selective pain in overly crowded AI and software names and resilience in quality cyclicals—shows that investors are refining exposure rather than abandoning risk.

Trading News stance – Buy, Sell or Hold for the major U.S. indices

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the combination of cyclical leadership from names like WMT, BA and GEV, a macro backdrop with 130,000 payroll gains and 4.3% unemployment, and a contained VIX around 17.5 supports a BUY-to-overweight bias on pullbacks. The index is aligned with the current environment: modest growth, delayed cuts, demand for tangible cash flows and less sensitivity to AI-software multiple compression. For the S&P 500, levels around 6,930 with an index composition that blends mega-cap tech, industrials, financials and healthcare argue for a HOLD stance. Upside exists, but it is increasingly stock-picking driven. Index exposure still makes sense, but the easy beta trade is behind and further appreciation depends on continued delivery from earnings and a CPI path that keeps rate-cut hopes alive. For the Nasdaq Composite, the violent reaction in CSCO, ongoing pressure in APP and the broader derating of growth names driven by AI anxiety and regulatory rumblings around data centers justify a tactical HOLD with a defensive tilt, closer to underweight than overweight at the index level. High-quality chip names and profitable platform companies remain attractive on their own merits, but paying full price for the entire growth complex through the index is less compelling while Washington and state capitals start to regulate AI infrastructure and investors demand cleaner proof of margin durability. The tape is rewarding rotation into quality cyclicals and select value rather than rewarding blind momentum in AI narratives. Positioning aligned with that rotation is the rational stance for this market setup.

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