Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Holds Around $95K as Whales Buy 46K BTC and Market Eyes $97K–$100K

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Around $95,000: Controlled Pause in a Bullish but Heavy Zone

BTC-USD Spot Context and Short-Term Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades in a tight $95,000–$96,000 band after failing to hold a push toward the recent two-month high just under $97,000. Across major boards BTC prints roughly $94,400–$95,500, up around 2–3% on the day and about 5.4% over seven days. The rejection from the high came immediately after the U.S. Senate Banking Committee postponed markup of a key crypto market-structure bill, which cooled risk appetite across the sector. As BTC faded from ~$97,000 toward $95,000, ETH-USD held around $3,260–$3,300, XRP-USD hovered near $2.04 with roughly 2–3% intraday losses at one point, and DOGE-USD around $0.136 underperformed with swings beyond 4%, showing classic high-beta behavior. Trading volumes in BTC fell about 13% over 24 hours during this pullback, which is important: price retreated from resistance on declining turnover, signaling a digestion phase around the highs rather than an aggressive unwind.

Daily Structure: Moving Averages and the $95K–$97K Cap

On the daily timeframe BTC-USD sits near $95,318 with the fast moving averages clustered just below spot. The 20-day EMA is around $92,160, the 50-day EMA around $92,204, while the longer 200-day EMA is lodged higher near $99,547. Another widely followed metric, the 100-day moving average, roughly aligns with the $95,000 band. Price above the 20/50-day EMAs but still below the 200-day and pinned under the 100-day tells a clear story: medium-term buyers currently control the tape above $92,000, yet $95,000–$97,000 remains a heavy supply pocket within the broader corrective structure from the peak near $126,000. Until BTC-USD can print and defend daily closes through roughly $97,000–$100,000, the move is best categorized as an advanced counter-trend rally inside a larger consolidation, not a fully confirmed new secular leg.

Momentum Gauges: RSI MACD Bollinger Bands and ATR

Momentum indicators back that view of strength without euphoria. The 14-day RSI sits near 62.9, comfortably above the 50 midline but well below the 80+ blow-off zone. That reading signals a bullish bias with room left on the upside, while still consistent with profit-taking around key resistance instead of constant chasing at any price. The MACD line on the daily chart hovers around 1.478, above a signal line near 0.890, with a positive histogram of roughly 0.589. The spread is positive but not exploding, which matches a maturing upswing rather than the explosive early stage of a new cycle. Bollinger Bands center around $91,457, with the upper band close to $97,007 and the lower band near $85,906. BTC-USD trading near $95,300 places price firmly in the upper half of the band yet not hugging the upper edge, a typical post-rally consolidation state where buyers still dominate but are no longer forcing a vertical breakout. The 14-day ATR around $2,313 implies a normal daily noise band of roughly $2,000–$2,500 at current levels, meaning intraday swings of 2–2.5% are standard, not indicative of panic.

Intraday Price Action: 4H Breakout Retest and Hourly Breather

On the 4-hour chart BTC-USD recently broke higher from an ascending structure and is now moving sideways at the upper boundary of that pattern precisely where a higher-timeframe resistance block around $95,000–$96,000 sits. Momentum is clearly slowing at the top of the range: successive candles shrink, and 4H RSI has rolled over from overbought, forming a bearish divergence that signals local distribution at the highs. If buyers fail to defend the breakout shelf in the $93,000–$94,000 zone, a retreat toward the lower trendline of the former pattern and the more psychological $90,000 region becomes likely. Conversely, if BTC holds that $93,000–$94,000 area on dips and then reclaims $97,000, the current sideways action will be validated as a simple consolidation before another test of $98,000–$100,000. The 1-hour chart shows a controlled pause inside that context. BTC-USD trades around $95,316 while the 20-EMA (H1) sits near $95,693 and the 50-EMA (H1) near $95,599, both marginally above price, with the 200-EMA (H1) substantially lower at about $93,585. That alignment—short-term averages just above spot, long-term average below—marks a short-term cooldown inside a still constructive intraday trend. Hourly RSI near 41 and a slightly negative MACD confirm profit-taking rather than capitulation; the structure only becomes materially damaged if BTC starts closing decisively below that $93,000 handle.

Micro Range: 15-Minute Compression and Mean-Reversion Noise

On the 15-minute timeframe BTC-USD trades around $95,569 while the EMA 20 stands near $95,502, the EMA 50 around $95,591 and the EMA 200 close to $95,640. All three moving averages are nearly stacked on top of price, and the 15-minute RSI prints around 52.7, firmly neutral. Bollinger Bands on this micro view have a midline near $95,548 with a relatively narrow envelope spanning roughly $95,227–$95,869. This is a textbook micro-range where price oscillates around a tight pivot and short-term mean-reversion trades dominate. Quick moves above $96,000 or below $95,000 on this timeframe are highly prone to being faded back toward the center of the band until a stronger catalyst breaks the equilibrium. For traders, the 15-minute chart is currently more noise filter than signal generator; the important information remains on the daily and 4H closes around the $97,000 resistance and the $92,000–$90,000 support corridor.

Short-Term Holders: Profit-Taking Spike at Resistance

On-chain behavior from short-term holders explains why BTC-USD stalled under $97,000. Profit-and-loss data for STH wallets shows a significant spike in profitable transfers to exchanges over the past 24 hours after a prolonged stretch where this cohort was realizing net losses. With BTC up about 5.4% in a week and trading back into the upper part of its recent range, the latest breakout attempt finally gave these late-cycle buyers an exit with green P&L, and they took it. Historically, such STH profit spikes at strong resistance levels mark exhaustion of the immediate momentum burst, not the start of a fresh vertical leg. That behavior lines up exactly with the chart: BTC reached the $95,000–$97,000 pocket, short-term holders dumped into strength, and price slid back into the mid-$90,000s while still holding the broader uptrend.

Whale Accumulation: 46,000 BTC Turn After a 220,000 BTC Drawdown

The larger whale cohort holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has quietly shifted from distributing to rebuilding exposure. After a massive accumulation peak of roughly +400,000 BTC in December 2024, their annual net balance change plunged by around 220,000 BTC, the steepest drop since early 2023, signaling substantial off-loading into the market. That distribution phase has now flipped. Within the latest week, whales have increased their holdings by about 46,000 BTC, a swing of roughly +21% in that yearly change metric, bringing it back into positive territory for the first time since November 2025. In terms of structure for BTC-USD, that means the cohort most associated with initiating major bull legs is again on the buy side near $90,000–$95,000, even as short-term players use the rally to reduce risk. Historically, whales lightening up into euphoria and then quietly accumulating during choppy consolidations has preceded the next medium-term advance.

“Dolphins” and ETF-Linked Flows: Post-Mania Hangover

Wallets in the 100–1,000 BTC bracket—often dubbed “dolphins” and heavily influenced by ETF and mid-size institutional flows—are still in a post-euphoria hangover. From an October high near 972,000 BTC, their aggregate holdings have dropped to roughly 589,000 BTC, a reduction of about 38%. That decline captures the unwind of the earlier ETF-fueled chase for exposure that characterized much of 2025. This group has been a key supply source on rallies in recent months, capping some of BTC’s upside attempts even as long-term believers accumulated. As whales now turn back to net buying and the dolphin cohort continues to normalize from extreme levels, leadership inside BTC-USD is slowly pivoting away from ETF-driven bursts towards deep-pocketed holders who operate on longer horizons. That shift tends to produce a slower, choppier base-building phase before any aggressive trending move resumes.

Exchange Reserves and Supply Overhang

Exchange reserve data reinforces the idea that structural supply pressure is easing even as tactical selling persists. BTC balances on centralized venues continue to trend lower, while spot is trading near the top of the local range. That indicates more coins are being moved to cold storage or held by entities not looking to hit the sell button on every small advance. A low and falling exchange reserve profile does not preclude price corrections into the $90,000 or even $80,000 region if macro or sentiment deteriorate, but it does argue that deeper dips are more likely to be bought than to trigger a full distribution top so long as there is no sudden spike in coins flowing back onto exchanges. As of now, the combination of declining reserves, returning whale accumulation, and only temporary STH profit spikes leans toward a buy-the-dip bias inside the broader structure.

Derivatives Positioning: $320M Liquidations and $65B in Open Interest

Futures and perpetuals positioning around BTC-USD has undergone a healthy reset rather than a collapse. Over the latest daily window, total crypto liquidations reached about $320 million, with approximately 81% of that tied to long positions. The selling pressure therefore came from over-levered bullish accounts being forced out as BTC failed to hold the push beyond $95,000–$97,000. Meanwhile, open interest in BTC futures dropped only about 2.31%, settling around $65 billion in notional value, and funding rates remain positive but far from extreme. That profile reflects reduced but still substantial participation without the imbalance typically seen at speculative blow-off tops. The rejection near $97,000–$98,000 also coincides with the widely watched 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior slide from roughly $126,000 down to $80,000, a level where rallies often pause as the market reassesses trend strength. As long as there is no sharp surge in funding toward overheated territory or a violent spike in open interest through that $65 billion region, the derivatives landscape continues to favor consolidation with upside potential over a leveraged washout.

Macro Backdrop: Equities, Rates, Dollar and Oil

Macro and cross-asset signals neither scream crisis nor full-throttle risk-on. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 49,292.57, down about 0.30%, the S&P 500 hovers around 6,933.81, lower by roughly 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite stands near 23,500.15, off around 0.13%. In contrast, the Russell 2000 at about 2,683.31 is up roughly 0.33%, showing that smaller, more domestic names can still attract capital. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holds around 4.192%, up about 0.335 percentage points, while the U.S. Dollar Index stays near 99.33 and front-month crude oil trades close to $59.79, about 1.01% higher. Recent U.S. jobless claims beat expectations, geopolitical tensions around Iran have cooled, and broader markets are absorbing headlines without tipping into a full drawdown. This environment is best described as cautiously constructive for risk assets, a backdrop where BTC-USD can continue to function as a high-beta expression of global risk appetite rather than being at the center of a systemic de-risking.

Corporate Flows: Miners Treasuries and Real-World Pivot

Corporate and treasury-like behavior adds nuance to the current BTC-USD dynamics. One prominent example is Riot Platforms (RIOT), which recently sold nearly $100 million worth of BTC to fund a $96 million land purchase at its Rockdale site in Texas, and simultaneously signed a leasing deal with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) that could deliver around $1 billion in revenue as it pivots deeper into AI data-center infrastructure. That transaction injects real BTC supply into the market in the short term, but channels the capital into assets and contracts tied to the same AI and high-performance computing narrative that underpins much of the risk appetite driving crypto. At the other end of the spectrum, highly leveraged corporate BTC holders such as the rebranded “Strategy” profile—the MicroStrategy-style balance sheet trade—illustrate how financial engineering can quickly flip from genius to vulnerability if BTC spends too long under key thresholds like $100,000. For BTC-USD, these flows mean that balance-sheet buyers remain influential but are no longer a one-way source of demand; some are now forced sellers or reallocators, which injects more two-sided volatility around key levels.

Key Zones for BTC-USD: Support Risk Band and Upside Targets

All of these signals converge into a sharp set of levels for BTC-USD. On the downside, the $92,000–$90,000 region, anchored by the overlapping 20-day and 50-day EMAs near $92,160–$92,204, is the first structural defense. A clean daily close below $92,000 would be the initial red flag that the current bullish consolidation is breaking down, and a consecutive daily settlement under $90,000, particularly if it flips the Bollinger midline around $91,457 into resistance, would mark a transition from digestion to full distribution. In that scenario, the prior $80,000–$90,000 support pocket becomes the natural magnet. On the upside, BTC must first reclaim and hold the $96,500–$97,000 band intraday, then convert the $97,000–$98,000 zone into a firm floor to confirm that the 61.8% retracement barrier has been decisively cleared. That would open a path back toward the psychological $100,000 mark and then into the $106,000 area where higher moving-average and resistance clusters lie. For now, BTC-USD sits almost exactly between a robust $92,000–$90,000 support shelf and a heavy $97,000–$98,000 cap, with on-chain and technical data slightly tilting the odds toward an eventual break higher.

BTC-USD Verdict: Bullish Bias and a Buy-Stance with Defined Risk

Weighing the full picture—BTC-USD trading around $95,000, daily closes above the 20/50-day EMAs, resistance locked in at $95,000–$97,000, momentum readings like RSI at ~62.9 and positive MACD, a $2,313 ATR confirming but not exaggerating volatility, STH profit-taking flushing recent chasers, whales switching from a 220,000 BTC balance drawdown to +46,000 BTC accumulation, “dolphins” still unwinding a 38% overextension, exchange reserves drifting lower, open interest holding near $65 billion after $320 million in mostly long liquidations, and a macro tape where equities, rates and the dollar remain in a balanced risk regime—the bias is clearly tilted toward strength, not topping. The market is not in a euphoric blow-off, but it is also not pricing in a macro or structural collapse. Under these conditions, BTC-USD around the mid-$90,000s screens as a Buy with a bullish stance, with risk defined against the $92,000–$90,000 band and upside potential toward $100,000–$106,000 if the $97,000–$98,000 ceiling finally breaks and holds.

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