Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Stabilizes Near $91,846 as Fed Policy Looms

Bitcoin Price Forecast - (BTC-USD) Rebounds Toward $91,846 as Market Balances ETF Outflows, Liquidity Stress, and Institutional Shifts

The Bitcoin (BTC-USD) price has climbed back above $91,800, recovering from a seven-month low of $82,000, as institutional traders weigh the impact of ETF outflows, Fed policy, and a sharp reallocation from corporate treasuries into regulated funds. The benchmark cryptocurrency remains down nearly 17% for November but is showing early signs of stabilization as Coinbase Premium turns positive and technical momentum builds around the $90,000 zone.

ETF Flows and Treasury Shift Reshape Bitcoin’s Market Structure

A major transformation is underway in Bitcoin’s institutional exposure. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now controls 6.8% of all circulating BTC, representing more than $70.7 billion in assets under management. Across U.S. spot ETFs, November closed with $3.48 billion in net outflows — the steepest withdrawal since July. The structural rotation out of corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and into ETFs has intensified after MSCI proposed excluding firms with over 50% of assets in crypto from its global indexes. If enacted, analysts estimate forced sell-offs of $8.8 billion, with $2.8 billion potentially coming from MSTR alone. These adjustments have redirected capital into ETF vehicles viewed as safer for institutional mandates, deepening Bitcoin’s correlation with Wall Street’s liquidity cycles.

Institutional and Insider Activity Around Bitcoin-Linked Equities

Insider filings show strategic accumulation of Strategy (STRC) preferred stock — a Bitcoin-treasury hybrid issue — despite volatility in its common shares. Director Jane Dietze recently bought 1,100 shares at $95.28 each, increasing her holdings to 2,600 shares worth $251,316 at Friday’s $96.66 close. STRC’s common stock fell 38% in November, while its preferred shares slipped only 2%, outperforming MSTR ( +0.88%) and tracking the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at +0.65%. Such defensive insider positioning signals confidence in long-term Bitcoin exposure through dividend-bearing instruments, even as crypto volatility remains elevated.

Whales, On-Chain Metrics, and Exchange Behavior

On-chain flows confirm that whales continue distributing BTC. The Exchange Whale Ratio rose from 0.32 to 0.68 in late November before easing to 0.53, still within the zone that historically precedes local tops. The Hodler Net Position Change remains negative for a sixth straight month, showing that long-term holders are selling into strength rather than accumulating. Until these metrics reverse, durable upside momentum remains capped near $97,100. A clean daily close above that threshold would invalidate the existing bear-flag structure and re-establish upward momentum toward $101,600 and $108,700.

Macro Headwinds: Fed Policy and Yen-Carry Unwind Drive Volatility

Global liquidity conditions remain the dominant macro catalyst. The Federal Reserve’s December decision carries a 78% probability of holding rates above 3.5%, and traders are bracing for potential ripple effects from Japan’s unwinding carry trade. The collapse of leveraged yen positions has drained global liquidity, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $90,000 on November 18. Author Robert Kiyosaki warned of a “two-front liquidity shock,” calling Bitcoin, gold, and silver the “insurance assets” for the coming financial reset. The macro link is clear — Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) sits above 70%, tying its short-term fate to equity volatility and funding conditions.

Derivatives and Options Positioning Signal Tactical Hesitation

Bitcoin’s derivatives market currently reflects cautious sentiment. Open interest on Deribit totals $13.3 billion, with a put-call ratio of 0.66 and a “max-pain” level near $102,000. The most traded contracts are $80,000 puts, indicating hedging against downside retests. If BTC can hold above $90,000 and push through $93,000–$95,000, momentum traders may re-enter, targeting $98,200 and $103,500. However, a breakdown below $80,400 could open a slide toward $66,800, marking the lower boundary of the current bear flag.

Coinbase Premium and U.S. Demand Revival

The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) versus Binance, has turned positive for the first time in weeks. BTC trades roughly $45–$60 higher on Coinbase, reflecting a revival in U.S. institutional buying. Historically, each transition from negative to positive premium preceded 30–50% rallies within two months. Analyst Valentin Kosanovic notes that U.S. market participation often leads global uptrends, suggesting accumulation by ETF-linked desks and regulated funds.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels

BTC-USD currently trades around $91,846, holding above short-term support at $90,000. The 20-day EMA sits at $92,800, acting as the immediate ceiling. A sustained daily close above that average would shift momentum toward $97,100, the mid-range pivot for the next leg higher. Above that, Fibonacci retracements mark resistance zones at $103,574, $108,753, and $115,000 — the level technicians view as confirmation of a full trend reversal. The RSI has risen from 32 → 41, and a MACD crossover on the daily chart supports gradual recovery. Below $86,000, however, invalidation triggers remain intact, and a retest of the $80,400 base cannot be ruled out.

ETF Resilience and Institutional Capital Rotation

Despite November’s withdrawals, ETF resilience remains notable. IBIT recorded a $21.1 million inflow on Nov 27, demonstrating investor confidence amid macro stress. BlackRock itself increased its IBIT stake by 14%, highlighting its conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term role. Combined ETF assets across U.S. issuers now exceed $100 billion, controlling roughly 9% of the total BTC float. This migration away from balance-sheet-held treasuries into ETFs marks a structural maturation of Bitcoin’s market — from speculative to institutional.

Strategic Assessment and Market Bias

Bitcoin’s current range between $80,400 support and $97,100 resistance defines the battleground for December. ETF dynamics, Fed policy direction, and whale activity will determine breakout or breakdown trajectories. For now, momentum favors cautious accumulation. The shift of capital from treasuries to ETFs, combined with renewed Coinbase demand and technical stabilization above $90,000, tilts sentiment moderately bullish. Traders eye $100,000 as the psychological barrier for early 2026, contingent on a decisive close above $93,000–$95,000 with volume confirmation.

Verdict: BTC-USD — BUY on strength above $93,000, HOLD between $88,000–$93,000, RISK below $86,000.

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