Bitcoin Rebounds Above $105K as Ceasefire, Fed Policy Shift Trigger Rally

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Regains Ground After Geopolitical Shock, Eyes Breakout Toward $111K

BTC-USD Rebounds After Geopolitical Volatility

After dipping below the critical $100,000 mark in reaction to heightened geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has reclaimed stability, currently hovering near $105,200 following a sharp 4.3% rebound on Monday. This recovery emerged after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, halting nearly two weeks of escalated military activity. The ceasefire triggered a return to risk-on positioning across global markets, dragging gold lower and lifting speculative assets including BTC.

The digital currency had dropped to a six-week low of $98,000, reacting to Iran's limited strike on U.S. military bases. The missile exchange initially shattered confidence, driving a rapid crypto sell-off. However, the announcement of a "complete and total" ceasefire — confirmed by both Gulf intermediaries and Trump’s direct communication with Israeli and Iranian leaders — reset investor expectations.

Institutional Flows Support BTC Recovery

Bitcoin's stabilization wasn’t just sentiment-driven. Institutional purchases surged alongside ETF inflows. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) added 245 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 592,345 BTC. Metaplanet, the Japanese investment firm, disclosed a new acquisition of 1,111 BTC, now holding 11,111 BTC in total. The Blockchain Group added 75 BTC, reaching 1,728 BTC.

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continued a 10-day inflow streak, attracting $350.43 million on Monday alone, per SoSoValue. These inflows came as Bitcoin crossed above its 50-day EMA at $103,188, confirming technical strength amid geopolitical relief.

Fed's Policy Shift Fuels Broader Crypto Sentiment

In tandem with the Middle East truce, the U.S. Federal Reserve softened its stance on crypto supervision. The Fed announced that "reputational risk" — long a barrier to banking partnerships with digital asset firms — will no longer be part of examination criteria. The policy, previously likened to "Operation Choke Point 2.0," discouraged banks from offering custody services or fiat access to crypto firms.

Senator Cynthia Lummis called the decision "a win" for the crypto industry. The move signals a regulatory thaw, reinforcing Bitcoin's recovery and broader altcoin strength. This pro-crypto pivot from regulators now joins easing geopolitical conditions to offer BTC a twin tailwind.

Technical Picture: Range-Bound but Constructive

BTC price action remains sandwiched between key levels: support at $100,487, $102,199, and $103,965; resistance at $106,000, $107,580, and $109,041. A confirmed breakout above $106K would validate bullish continuation toward the May 22 high of $111,980.

The MACD is flashing a strong buy signal with a bullish crossover, while the RSI hovers just above neutral, suggesting more upside if momentum accelerates. The current candlestick pattern also shows a bullish engulfing setup, supporting further gains if volume holds. Daily trading volume surpassed $64.9 billion, and Bitcoin's market cap currently stands at $2.09 trillion.

Range Compression and Whale Accumulation

Despite low volatility in early Tuesday trade, long-term bullish structure remains intact. The broader range between $100,000 and $110,000 continues to define short-term dynamics. Analysts warn that a breakdown below $100K could expose BTC to the 200-day EMA near $95,000, though current flows and news momentum argue against that scenario.

On-chain data reveals continued whale accumulation. As conflict escalated, large wallet addresses (>10,000 BTC) grew, reflecting a strategy consistent with prior major rallies. This structural demand underpins long-term bullish sentiment and mirrors 400% rallies seen in earlier geopolitical risk cycles.

Altcoin Correlation and Risk Rotation

The BTC rally triggered broader digital asset upside. Ethereum (ETH-USD) soared 7%, XRP (XRP-USD) gained 9%, and Solana (SOL-USD) advanced 7.5%, reflecting renewed risk appetite. With spot Bitcoin ETFs gaining traction and DeFi activity accelerating on L2s, altcoins are riding Bitcoin’s momentum, but leadership remains concentrated in BTC.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin-native L2 project Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) surged past $1.5 million in presale, driven by its Solana Virtual Machine-powered infrastructure. With 91 million tokens staked and projected 577% APY, it reflects expanding Layer 2 dynamics in the BTC ecosystem.

Market Catalysts Ahead: Powell, Confidence Data, ETF Flows

All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Any dovish tone or mention of monetary easing could fuel further crypto upside. Also in focus is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and updates on ETF inflows.

If these align positively, BTC could test the $109,000 to $111,000 resistance zone this week. However, failure at the $106K level or renewed geopolitical escalation could pause the rally and refocus attention on downside supports.

Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Is a Tactical Buy With $111K Target

Bitcoin’s recovery above $105,000 reflects a potent confluence of macro de-escalation, institutional inflows, and regulatory softening. The range remains tight, but momentum and on-chain metrics support a Buy rating for BTC-USD with a target of $111,000. Pullbacks toward $102,000 remain tactical reentry zones, barring a break below $98,000.

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