Copper Price Climbs Toward $10,000 as Dollar Retreats, China Demand Stays Strong

Copper Price Rallies Toward $10,000 on Dollar Weakness and Chinese Demand

HG=F Surges with LME and COMEX Contracts Testing Resistance

Copper futures (HG=F) started September with strong momentum, pushing toward the $10,000 per tonne mark on the London Metal Exchange. LME contracts touched $9,928/t while COMEX futures held at $4.598 per lb, equal to $10,137/t. The move extends a four-week rally, with prices up 3% for August, supported by a softer dollar and persistent demand from China, the world’s largest consumer. The weakening greenback, down nearly 2% in August, has made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers. At the same time, U.S. rate cut bets and legal setbacks to Trump’s tariff policy have further pressured the currency, creating favorable conditions for metals.

Chinese Consumption Keeps Copper Supported Despite Economic Risks

According to Zijin Mining Group, apparent copper consumption in China climbed about 10% in the first half of 2025, highlighting resilient industrial activity even as property markets slump and youth unemployment remains elevated. Cross-regional trips in China reached 11.9 billion in July–August, while self-driving trips climbed to 8.7 billion, signaling consumer demand for travel and by extension infrastructure-related activity. Yet risks linger. Industrial profits fell 1.5% YoY in July, an improvement from earlier months but still reflecting macro weakness. Goldman Sachs cautioned that while Chinese demand remains supportive, consumption growth for copper and aluminum has slowed in recent months, a sign that the second half of 2025 could bring softer momentum.

Support Levels Hold on COMEX as Bulls Test Key Resistance

On COMEX, copper price leaned above its 55-day moving average, trading near $4.5150 per lb. Analysts highlight a bullish trend, with stochastic indicators showing an exit from oversold territory. Near-term support is at $4.26, while upside targets cluster at $4.62 and $4.75. Traders are watching the $4.56 resistance zone closely, as a break above it could signal a reversal of August’s range-bound trade and set the stage for a push toward $4.66. Despite a bullish technical bias, the market remains cautious given heavy inventories—LME-registered stockpiles have jumped 72% since late June to 156,100 tonnes, while COMEX inventories have nearly tripled year-to-date.

Macro Shifts: U.S. Policy and Global Supply Concerns Shape Outlook

U.S. government efforts to classify copper as a critical mineral have improved sentiment, as such a designation streamlines approvals for new mining and processing projects. This development, combined with decarbonization and electrification trends globally, keeps copper positioned as a strategic asset. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut in September could inject additional liquidity into markets, supporting industrial metals. The yuan has also strengthened, making imports into China more attractive, with the Yangshan copper premium holding at $55 per tonne, its highest since early June, reflecting firm import demand.

Short-Term and Long-Term Scenarios for Copper Price

In the short term, HG=F appears locked between support at $4.42–$4.43 and resistance at $4.56–$4.75. A confirmed breakout above $4.75 could open a path toward $4.95, aligning with COMEX contracts reclaiming momentum after the summer slowdown. On the LME side, a close above $10,000 would be a psychological catalyst, potentially extending toward $10,200 if the dollar weakens further. Conversely, failure to hold $4.42 on COMEX or $9,700/t on the LME risks a retreat toward $4.26 per lb ($9,390/t), where buyers would need to step in to maintain the bullish trajectory. Goldman Sachs reiterated its year-end forecast at $9,700/t, underscoring that while near-term bullishness is evident, the bank sees tempered gains given supply-demand imbalances.

Verdict on HG=F: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Copper’s rally toward $10,000 reflects real tailwinds from currency shifts and Chinese demand, yet the surge in inventories and slowing profit data in China argue for caution. With HG=F at $4.59 per lb and LME near $9,928/t, the metal is trading just shy of critical resistance. The technical picture favors bullish continuation if $4.62 breaks, targeting $4.75 and possibly $5.00, but the macro backdrop warns of volatility. For now, HG=F looks like a hold with bullish bias, suitable for traders expecting Fed cuts and strong Q4 seasonal demand, while investors must weigh the risk of a pullback toward $4.26 if China’s data weakens further.

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