Energy Transfer Stock Price Forecast - NYSE:ET $17.46 With 7.56% Yield, $5B Pipeline Expansion, and Insider Buys Signal Undervaluation

NYSE:ET Current Stock Performance and Market Standing

Energy Transfer LP (NYSE:ET) closed at $17.46 on September 26, 2025, up 0.29% on the day, before ticking higher to $17.50 in after-hours trading. The stock remains well off its 52-week high of $21.45, but comfortably above its low of $14.60, positioning it mid-range as investors weigh near-term risks against longer-term growth catalysts. Average daily trading volumes sit near 12.4 million units, reflecting healthy liquidity for a $59.9 billion market cap partnership. Over a one-year horizon, ET has returned 17.95%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 15.64%, while its five-year total return of 377.8% has significantly outpaced the index’s 101.4%, underscoring its ability to compound distributions over time.

Valuation Profile Highlights Discounted Levels

The partnership trades at a trailing P/E of 13.53 and a forward P/E of 10.04, ratios that suggest undervaluation when compared with peers such as Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) at over 11x forward earnings and Enbridge (NYSE:ENB) at roughly 13x. ET’s EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x is nearly 20% below the midstream industry average of 10.4x. With a PEG ratio of 0.74 and a price-to-book value of 1.72, the stock’s metrics indicate embedded upside if execution on growth projects remains intact. Analyst consensus sees ET re-rating into the $20 to $25 range, translating to potential upside of more than 30% from $17.46.

Distributions, Yield and Coverage Ratios

Investors are rewarded with a forward annualized distribution of $1.32 per unit, which equates to a 7.56% yield at the current price of $17.46. ET’s ability to sustain and grow this payout is reinforced by a strong distribution coverage ratio of 1.73x in Q2 2025, backed by $3.87 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.96 billion in distributable cash flow. The partnership increased its quarterly payout to $0.33 per unit, representing a 3% year-over-year hike, continuing its pattern of steady increases. This coverage not only ensures stability but also leaves room for incremental hikes, making ET attractive to long-term income investors.

Expansion Strategy and $5 Billion CapEx Commitment

Management has committed to $5.0 billion in 2025 capital spending, with the lion’s share targeting high-demand corridors like the Permian Basin. The Desert Southwest Expansion—a 516-mile natural gas pipeline capable of transporting 1.5 billion cubic feet per day from West Texas to Arizona and New Mexico—is a centerpiece of this strategy. Beyond pipeline growth, ET’s Lake Charles LNG export project has gained momentum after securing a Department of Energy extension to 2031, ensuring additional optionality in the global LNG market. The partnership has also confirmed agreements to supply over 200 data centers and more than 60 power plants, reinforcing its role as a backbone provider in powering AI infrastructure and electrification.

Financial Performance and Cash Flow Strength

For the trailing twelve months, Energy Transfer generated $80.6 billion in revenue, translating into $4.47 billion in net income and an EPS of $1.29. While Q2 revenue fell 7.2% year-over-year to $19.24 billion, adjusted EBITDA grew 3% to $3.87 billion, showing resilience in the face of commodity headwinds. Operating cash flow reached $11.1 billion TTM, while levered free cash flow came in at $3.6 billion. Leverage remains manageable with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.8x, supported by predictable fee-based revenues that comprise 90% of adjusted EBITDA.

Insider and Institutional Positioning

Insider confidence remains evident. In August 2025, Director Kelcy Warren acquired 2 million units at a cost of roughly $34.7 million, a significant purchase signaling conviction in undervaluation. View insider transactions here. Insiders collectively hold 10.1% of float, while institutions own 31.8%. Short interest is negligible at 0.84% of float, eliminating near-term pressure from speculative bets against the stock. This ownership mix suggests long-term alignment and a solid institutional base supporting the unit price.

Analyst Forecasts and Earnings Trajectory

Consensus estimates point to steady earnings growth. For Q3 2025, analysts expect EPS of $0.34, followed by $0.37 in Q4, bringing the full-year forecast to $1.40 EPS and $1.57 in 2026, implying nearly 10% growth. Revenue is projected to expand from $85.3 billion in 2025 to $92.5 billion in 2026, driven by LNG demand, Permian throughput, and AI-related energy consumption. Price targets range from $20 on the low end to $25 on the high end, reinforcing the case for multiple expansion.

Competitive Position in Midstream Infrastructure

With over 140,000 miles of pipelines and the ability to transport 32 million MMBtu/day of natural gas, ET is among the largest and most diversified midstream operators. Competitors like Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD) and MPLX (NYSE:MPLX) command premium valuations despite similar cash flow predictability. ET’s toll-road model, where 90% of EBITDA is fee-based, insulates it from commodity volatility, strengthening its defensive profile even as it participates in growth from LNG exports and electrification demand.

Final View: NYSE:ET Offers Income and Growth at a Discount

At $17.46 per unit, Energy Transfer LP is trading at a level that does not reflect its forward growth trajectory, income strength, or strategic positioning. A 7.56% yield, consistent distribution growth, insider accumulation, and a potential re-rating to $20–$25 present a compelling total return profile. For investors seeking a blend of high income and capital appreciation, NYSE:ET remains a strong Buy.

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