ETH-USD Claws Back to $1,750 as Soft Jobs Data Sparks a Relief Rally, but a Broken ETF Bid Keeps the Downtrend Alive Below $1,865

Ethereum changed hands near $1,750 into Monday, up roughly 13% over the past week but sitting a punishing 65% below its all-time high of nearly $5,000 set back in August 2025. That's the frame for the entire forecast: a sharp relief bounce inside one of the deepest drawdowns in ETH's history. The second-largest crypto by market cap, valued around $233 billion, has clawed back from a low near $1,500 to $1,750, but it's still down roughly $825 — about 32% — from where it traded a year ago. The recovery is real, and it's meaningful. ETH ripped from the $1,500-to-$1,546 zone that marked the bottom of its recent leg lower, reclaiming ground it had lost during a brutal first half. But the bounce hasn't repaired the damage — it's just lifted the token off its lows. Ethereum rolled over hard from its August 2025 peak, and the path down has been ugly, driven by a mix of recession worries, co-founder Vitalik Buterin selling millions of dollars of ETH earlier in 2026, and a broad crypto de-rating that hit the ETF-driven bid. The $1,750 print is the token trying to build a floor, not charge toward records. The 24-hour tape was actually soft, with ETH slipping from a daily open near $1,568 in some reads and giving back a fraction of a percent, which tells you the weekly bounce is losing steam as it approaches resistance. That's the character of the move — a counter-trend recovery running into overhead supply from the descent. The relief rally came almost entirely on macro, not on anything ETH-specific: the same soft U.S. jobs data that lifted Bitcoin and gold reduced Fed hike fears and sent risk assets higher across the board, and Ethereum caught the same bid. Take that macro tailwind away and ETH is a token in a deep downtrend fighting a wall of resistance overhead, with its own network metrics flashing warning signs. At $1,750, Ethereum is doing one thing above all: trying to prove the $1,500 low was the bottom. The 13% weekly bounce bought the bulls some room, but the burden of proof sits squarely on them, and it starts at the moving averages just overhead.

The 20-day EMA reclaim and the $1,865 wall above

The bounce's first accomplishment was reclaiming the 20-day exponential moving average near $1,708 — the first sign the short-term momentum has shifted from the relentless selling that drove ETH to $1,500. Getting back above the 20-day is the minimum requirement for a recovery to have legs, and ETH cleared it on the weekly bounce. But that's where the good news thins out. Above the 20-day sits a stack of moving averages that define just how deep the drawdown runs. The 50-day EMA sits near $1,865, the 100-day near $2,037, and the 200-day up at $2,317 — and ETH trades below all of them. That's a textbook bearish structure, where every major average sits overhead as resistance rather than beneath as support, and the token has to climb through each one to repair its trend. The $1,865 50-day EMA is the next wall, and it's the level that matters most for the bounce. Reclaiming it would signal the recovery is more than a dead-cat bounce and open the path toward $2,000 and the 100-day EMA at $2,037. Failing there — which is the base case given the overhead supply — caps the bounce and sends ETH back toward its support. From $1,750, the token has to climb roughly 6.5% just to reach the 50-day, and every level in between is populated with sellers who got caught on the way down and are looking to exit near break-even. The gap to the 200-day EMA at $2,317 shows the scale of the repair job — ETH would need to rally about 32% just to reclaim its long-term average, which is the level that separates a bear-market bounce from a genuine trend reversal. That's a long way from $1,750. For the forecast, the moving-average structure is the roadmap. The 20-day reclaim at $1,708 is progress and now acts as support; the 50-day at $1,865 is the wall the bounce has to break to matter; the 100-day at $2,037 and the 200-day at $2,317 are the levels that would confirm the downtrend is over. Until ETH clears the 50-day, every push higher is a rally to fade in a downtrend. The RSI near oversold territory when ETH bottomed at $1,500 supported the bounce, but oversold bounces in bear structures tend to stall at resistance. The 20-day is reclaimed. The $1,865 wall is the test that decides whether this is a bottom or a pause.

$1,600 and $1,500: the support that defines the floor

The downside is anchored by two levels: $1,600 and the $1,500-to-$1,512 zone that marked the recent bottom. The $1,600 handle is the near-term support the bounce is building on, and holding it keeps the recovery intact. Below it, the $1,500-to-$1,512 range is the critical floor — the level where buyers stepped in hard enough to spark the 13% weekly bounce, and the line that defines whether the drawdown is stabilizing or extending. That $1,500 low is the make-or-break point. It's where the aggressive selling finally found a floor, and a successful defense of it built the base for the recovery to $1,750. If ETH were to lose $1,500 on a closing basis, the bearish structure reasserts and the next downside targets sit at $1,450 and then $1,400 — levels that would extend the drawdown from the $5,000 peak past 70%. There's little structural support between $1,500 and $1,400 once the floor gives way, so a break there tends to accelerate. The support structure matters more here because the technical picture is already bearish, with ETH below all its major moving averages and its network metrics showing user weakness. In a downtrend, support levels are more likely to break than to hold, and ETH is leaning on $1,600 and $1,500 with the broader crypto flow picture still working against it. The one thing keeping the floor alive is the decisiveness of the bounce off $1,500 — a move of 13% off a level in a week is evidence that real buyers stepped in there, and a support that produces a bounce that sharp becomes a level worth respecting. For the forecast, $1,600 is the near-term line and $1,500 is the level that defines the whole drawdown. Above $1,600, ETH has a foundation for the bounce. Between $1,600 and $1,500, it's a token on the edge. Below $1,500, the road to $1,450 and $1,400 opens and the deep correction extends. Those levels frame every downside scenario. The macro tailwind from soft jobs gives the support a better chance of holding than it had two weeks ago, but the structural headwinds — ETF outflows, weak user metrics, rival-chain competition — mean the floor is under constant pressure. ETH is defending $1,600 with $1,500 as the last line before a deeper leg lower, and the macro is the only thing clearly on its side.

Soft jobs data lit the bounce

The 13% weekly recovery has the same author as Bitcoin's and gold's: the U.S. jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June — roughly half the expected 110,000 and the smallest gain in four months — and that miss lit a fire under risk assets across the board, Ethereum included. In the current regime, where the Fed is debating whether to hike rather than cut, soft jobs data is fuel, because it lowers the odds of another rate increase and eases the pressure on every rate-sensitive asset. The mechanism is the same for ETH as for any risk asset. Fewer expected hikes means a softer path for the dollar and real yields, and a softer rate backdrop is supportive for crypto, which trades as a high-beta risk play tied to global liquidity. When the June print pushed the probability of a September hike down to roughly 50% from around 66%, it took a chunk of tightening risk off the table, and ETH caught the risk-on bid that lifted the entire complex. That's the tailwind that carried Ethereum from $1,500 to $1,750. The catch is that a macro tailwind and a broken flow picture pull in opposite directions. The soft-jobs bounce is real and can extend if the data keeps cooling and the Fed stays on hold, but it's fighting the ETF outflows and the weak network metrics that define ETH's own story. Macro can spark a bounce; it can't by itself restart the institutional demand that drove ETH toward $5,000. That's why this rally has the character of a relief bounce rather than a trend reversal — it's driven by what the Fed might not do, not by fresh money flooding into Ethereum. If the labor market keeps softening and September hike odds keep falling, ETH gets a cleaner runway and the push toward the 50-day EMA at $1,865 becomes more achievable. If the next inflation print runs hot and puts the hike back on the table, the macro prop gets kicked out and the token's own headwinds take over. For the forecast, the soft-jobs story is why ETH is at $1,750 and not testing $1,500 again — the single most important variable that could carry the bounce toward $1,865 and beyond. But it's a borrowed tailwind, shared with every other risk asset, and it can reverse on one data point. The macro lit the bounce. ETH's own fundamentals have to sustain it.

The ETF flow problem

The structural weight on Ethereum is the same one crushing Bitcoin: the ETF bid has broken. Spot crypto ETFs suffered a record wave of outflows in June, with Bitcoin funds bleeding a record $4.5 billion — the worst month since the products launched — and Ethereum's ETF complex has been under the same pressure. The spot-ETH ETFs, including BlackRock's iShares Ethereum offering, were the institutional demand channel that helped drive Ethereum's run, and when that flow flips from inflow to outflow, the marginal buyer becomes a source of supply. The ETF story is the cleanest read on institutional appetite there is, and it's been pointing the wrong way. When Ethereum first got its spot ETFs in 2024, the launch saw large outflows, especially from legacy converted funds, that capped the upside. In 2025, the flows reversed hard, with billions flowing back into the ETFs and driving ETH to recover strongly toward its $5,000 peak. That episode proved institutional inflows can cause powerful price increases — and the current outflows prove the reverse. The 2026 drawdown to $1,500 tracked the ETF flows turning negative, and the bounce to $1,750 came on macro rather than a return of ETF demand. This is why the recovery feels fragile. Soft jobs data can revive risk appetite and spark a 13% bounce, but it can't manufacture the sustained ETF inflows that drove the last leg up. Those flows are driven by allocation decisions, and the recent decisions have been to sell. Until the ETH ETF tape turns green again — until the daily and weekly flow numbers flip back to net creation — every rally has to fight the gravity of an institutional base that's been net-distributing. For the forecast, the ETF flow is the master variable alongside the macro. A relief bounce with ETF outflows is a bounce to fade; a recovery with ETF inflows is a trend change. Right now the flows are the headwind, and it's why ETH sits 65% below its peak despite the strength of its underlying network. The macro gave the token a lift; the ETF flows are the reason it can't hold gains without help. Watch the ETH ETF flows as closely as the price — they're the institutional engine, and the engine has been running in reverse.

The supply squeeze: record-low exchange reserves

Beneath the flow noise sits a genuinely bullish structural dynamic: Ethereum's exchange reserves have hit a record low. On-chain data shows ETH exchange reserves down to around 14.5 million ETH — the lowest on record — as supply continues moving off centralized venues into staking and corporate treasuries. That's a supply squeeze in the making, and it's the strongest structural argument for the bulls. The mechanism is simple. When ETH moves off exchanges, it's harder to sell — coins locked in staking contracts or held in corporate treasuries aren't sitting on order books ready to hit the market. A thinning exchange float means less available supply, and less available supply means price becomes more sensitive to demand: if buyers return in size against a shrinking float, the move up can be violent because there's less coin available to absorb the buying. That's the coiled-spring setup the record-low reserves describe. The supply squeeze is the structural counterweight to the ETF flow problem. The ETF outflows are removing institutional demand, but the shrinking exchange float is removing available supply, and the two are in tension. If demand returns — through a macro tailwind, an ETF flow reversal, or a fresh catalyst — the thin float amplifies the move, and ETH could rip harder than the drawdown would suggest. The 14.5 million ETH exchange reserve is the reason the downside may be more limited than the bearish flow picture implies, and the reason any genuine demand return could produce a sharp rally. The catch is timing. The supply squeeze is a slow-building structural condition, not a catalyst — it sets up the potential for a violent move but doesn't trigger one. Coins moving to staking and treasuries is a multi-quarter trend, while the ETF outflows hit the tape fast. For the forecast, the record-low exchange reserves are the bull's best structural argument: a shrinking float that could turn any demand return into an outsized rally. It's the reason to be constructive on ETH's medium-term setup even as the near-term flows disappoint. The supply side is tightening while the demand side heals, and when they align, the thin float does the rest. The spring is coiling. What it needs is a reason to release, and that reason is a return of the demand the ETF flows have been draining.

Corporate treasuries: BitMine's 5.6 million ETH

The supply squeeze has a face, and it's corporate treasuries accumulating ETH at scale. BitMine Immersion holds over 5.6 million ETH — roughly 4.66% of the entire global supply — a single corporate holder controlling a staggering slice of the float. That's the same treasury-accumulation dynamic playing out in Bitcoin, applied to Ethereum, and it's a structural bid that doesn't flinch on price swings. A corporate treasury holding 4.66% of all ETH is the sticky, price-insensitive capital on the other side of the ETF outflows. BitMine isn't trading the token — it's accumulating and holding, treating ETH as a treasury reserve asset, and every coin it moves into treasury is a coin off the market. That accumulation is a big part of why exchange reserves have fallen to record lows, and it's the structural floor under the drawdown. The treasury bid matters because it's a new source of durable demand that didn't exist in prior cycles. Corporate treasuries adopting ETH as a reserve asset — the way some companies adopted Bitcoin — creates a class of holders who accumulate through drawdowns and lock supply away for the long term. That's the opposite of the ETF flows, which move fast in both directions. Where the ETFs distribute on weak sentiment, the treasuries accumulate on weak prices, and the tension between the two defines the market. The scale of BitMine's holding — 5.6 million ETH, nearly 5% of supply — is significant enough to matter for the float. It's the kind of concentrated accumulation that, combined with the staking lockups, has driven exchange reserves to their record low and set up the supply squeeze. For the forecast, the corporate treasury bid is the reason ETH's downside likely finds a floor rather than falling into an abyss, the same role the sticky holders play in Bitcoin. It's durable, long-horizon capital treating the drawdown as an accumulation window, and it's tightening the float while the ETF flows drain demand. The treasury accumulation and the record-low exchange reserves are the same story told two ways — supply leaving the market for long-term holders. That's a bullish structural setup buried under a bearish near-term flow picture, and it's why the medium-term case stays constructive even as the tape struggles. BitMine's 5.6 million ETH is the anchor, and it isn't moving.

Active users at lows, whales accumulating

The on-chain data tells a divided story that captures Ethereum's whole predicament. On one side, the number of active users on the network has reached new lows — a worrying sign for a platform whose value rests on usage and demand for blockspace. On the other, the number of whale addresses holding large amounts of ETH has increased, showing that the biggest holders are accumulating even as everyday usage thins out. That divergence is the bull-bear battle in miniature. Weak active-user metrics are a genuine headwind. Ethereum's fundamental value proposition is as the settlement layer for DeFi, stablecoins and tokenized assets, and that value depends on people actually using the network. Active users hitting new lows suggests the on-chain activity that drives fee revenue and blockspace demand has softened, which is a warning that the drawdown may reflect real demand weakness rather than just macro and flow pressure. That's the bearish read the price at $1,750 partly reflects. The rising whale count is the counterpoint. When large holders accumulate through a drawdown, they're signaling conviction that the long-term case is intact regardless of the near-term usage dip — the same conviction the corporate treasuries and the record-low exchange reserves reflect. Whales accumulating while retail activity fades is a pattern that has historically preceded recoveries, because it's the smart, patient capital positioning ahead of the crowd. The tension between the two metrics is the tension in the whole forecast. Weak active users say the fundamental demand is soft; accumulating whales say the structural conviction is strong. The resolution depends on whether the usage recovers — driven by the network upgrades and institutional adoption — before the patient capital's conviction gets tested. For the forecast, the divided on-chain data argues for a market in transition rather than clear decline. The active-user weakness caps the bullish case and justifies caution, while the whale accumulation supports the medium-term floor and aligns with the supply-squeeze setup. It's a network where the base of everyday activity has thinned but the concentrated, long-term holders are building positions — a setup that can resolve sharply in either direction depending on whether usage returns. The whales are betting it does. The active-user lows are the risk that it doesn't. That divergence is why ETH at $1,750 is a genuine coin flip on the fundamentals, not just the macro.

The Fusaka upgrade and the scaling roadmap

The bull case rests heavily on Ethereum's technical roadmap, and the next major milestone is the Fusaka upgrade. Targeting a launch in the second half of 2026, Fusaka builds on the earlier Pectra upgrade and represents one of the largest protocol updates since the Merge, pushing Ethereum toward its long-term Surge, Verge and Purge goals of higher transaction speeds, greater decentralization, and readiness for over 100,000 transactions per second on Layer 2 networks. That's the scaling vision that's supposed to cement Ethereum's dominance. Fusaka adds tools like block-level access lists to manage data and keep ordinary computers able to run nodes even under heavier load, preserving the decentralization that's core to Ethereum's value while boosting base-layer performance. The upgrade is aimed squarely at the criticism that Ethereum is too slow and too expensive — by enhancing the base layer and empowering the Layer 2 networks that already process the majority of transactions, Fusaka is meant to let Ethereum scale to the throughput that mainstream and institutional adoption require. For the forecast, the upgrade roadmap is the fundamental bull catalyst that the current price isn't crediting. A successful Fusaka launch that meaningfully improves throughput and cements the Layer 2 scaling model would be the kind of development that could reignite the on-chain activity that's currently at lows, and that would address the active-user weakness directly. Better performance means more usage, more usage means more fee revenue and blockspace demand, and that demand — against a record-low exchange float — is the setup for a significant move. The catch is the same as always: upgrades operate on a multi-quarter timeline and carry execution risk. Fusaka has already seen timeline adjustments and gas-limit tweaks, and protocol upgrades of this scale can slip or disappoint. The roadmap is a reason to be constructive on Ethereum's medium-term trajectory, not a catalyst for the next week. For the forecast, Fusaka belongs in the bull-scenario bucket — a potential trigger that could restart the demand the network needs, against a tightening supply, if it delivers in the second half of 2026. It's the fundamental counterweight to the competition and usage concerns, and it's why the long-term case stays intact through the drawdown. The scaling roadmap is Ethereum's answer to its critics. Fusaka is the next chapter, and its success is part of what the bulls are betting on at $1,750.

Solana and the competition problem

Ethereum's biggest fundamental challenge isn't the macro — it's the competition, and the numbers show it. Ethereum's share of overall crypto total value locked has compressed to around 53-54%, down from the near-total dominance it once held, as rival chains led by Solana have gained ground in specific use cases. That erosion is the bear's strongest fundamental argument, and it's a genuine threat to the long-term thesis. The competition problem is real. Faster, cheaper blockchains like Solana have chipped away at Ethereum's DeFi and application dominance, capturing use cases where speed and low fees matter most, and that's part of why Ethereum's TVL share has slipped even as its absolute figures remain large. Every point of market share ETH cedes to a rival is a point of demand for its blockspace that goes elsewhere, and in a world where the value of the token rests on demand for the network, share loss is a direct threat to the price. The counterpoint is that Ethereum's absolute dominance remains substantial. It still holds the largest share of DeFi total value locked at roughly $45 billion, and it remains dominant in stablecoins, decentralized exchange volume, and tokenized real-world assets — the categories that matter most for institutional adoption. The share has compressed, but Ethereum still sets the standard, and its ecosystem depth, developer base and first-mover advantage are hard to replicate. Rival chains have gained ground in specific niches without dethroning ETH from its position as the primary settlement layer. For the forecast, the competition problem is the fundamental headwind that caps Ethereum's premium and justifies part of the drawdown. A world where ETH's TVL share keeps eroding is a world where the token deserves a lower valuation, and that's part of what the 65% drawdown from $5,000 reflects. But the scaling roadmap is Ethereum's response — Fusaka and the Layer 2 model are aimed directly at closing the speed-and-cost gap that let Solana gain ground. The resolution of the competition problem depends on whether Ethereum's upgrades let it reclaim the share it's ceded, or whether the rivals keep chipping away. At $1,750, the market is pricing a real competitive threat against a still-dominant franchise. The 53-54% TVL share is both a warning — down from the highs — and a reassurance — still a majority. Ethereum's answer to Solana is execution on the roadmap, and that's the fundamental bet beneath the price.

Ethereum Institutional and the Wall Street bid

The structural bull case got a new pillar on July 1, when a nonprofit called Ethereum Institutional launched to serve as a neutral point of contact for institutions engaging with the network. That's a signal that the institutional adoption story — the one that's supposed to drive the next leg of demand — is being formalized and professionalized, and it aligns with the corporate treasury accumulation and the ETF infrastructure. The institutional thesis rests on Ethereum's unique position. Its move to Proof-of-Stake means holders can earn staking yield, which makes ETH appealing to institutions that want a productive asset rather than a non-yielding one — a structural advantage over Bitcoin for yield-focused allocators. Combined with Ethereum's dominance in stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets and DeFi, that staking yield is the hook for the Wall Street capital that's been slowly building blockspace and infrastructure on the network. The new Ethereum Institutional body is the connective tissue for that adoption — a neutral organization that gives institutions a clear entry point, reducing the friction that's kept some large allocators on the sidelines. That matters because friction and uncertainty have been part of what's held institutional demand back, and lowering those barriers is exactly the kind of development that could help restart the ETF inflows that have been draining. For the forecast, the institutional infrastructure build-out is the slow-burn bullish story running beneath the near-term flow weakness. Staking yield, tokenized assets, stablecoin dominance and a formalized institutional on-ramp are the ingredients for a sustained demand recovery — and against the record-low exchange float, that demand would have an outsized effect on price. The catch is the same as the other structural bull points: this operates on a multi-quarter timeline, not a weekly one. A nonprofit launching on July 1 doesn't move the price the next week; it builds the foundation for demand over quarters. The institutional story is the reason to be constructive on Ethereum's medium-term trajectory, and it aligns with the treasury accumulation and the supply squeeze to form a coherent bull thesis: tightening supply, building institutional demand, and a staking-yield advantage that Bitcoin can't match. That thesis is intact through the drawdown, even as the near-term ETF flows and active-user metrics disappoint. Ethereum Institutional is Wall Street's on-ramp getting built. It's part of why the long-term case survives the 65% drawdown, and part of what the bulls are underwriting at $1,750.

Scenarios: where ETH goes from $1,750

Three paths run out from $1,750, and the moving averages define each one. The bull case: ETH holds the 20-day EMA at $1,708 as support, clears the 50-day EMA at $1,865, and pushes toward $2,000 and the 100-day EMA at $2,037 as the soft-jobs macro extends and demand returns against the record-low float. A break above $2,037 would open the path toward the 200-day at $2,317 — a full trend reversal — with the CoinCodex end-2026 target of $2,043 and higher bull-case ranges in play. This path needs the macro to keep cooperating, the ETF flows to stabilize, and the supply squeeze to amplify any demand return. The base case: ETH ranges between $1,600 support and the $1,865 50-day EMA resistance, chopping sideways as the soft-jobs tailwind keeps a floor under price while the broken ETF flows and weak active-user metrics cap the upside. The corporate treasury accumulation and record-low reserves hold the floor while the overhead moving averages cap rallies, producing a grinding consolidation in the $1,600-to-$1,865 band. This is the most probable near-term outcome given the standoff between tightening supply and draining demand. The bear case: ETH loses $1,600, retests the $1,500 low, and breaks it as ETF outflows and weak usage overwhelm the support bid, opening the deeper downside toward $1,450 and $1,400 and extending the drawdown past 70% from the $5,000 peak. This path needs the macro tailwind to reverse and the flow gravity to take over. The distances frame the risk: about $115 of upside to the $1,865 50-day EMA that caps the bounce, roughly $150 of cushion to the $1,600 support, about $250 of downside to the $1,500 low, and a long climb of $287-plus to the $2,037 100-day EMA that would signal a trend change. The near-term asymmetry favors caution — the flows are draining and the moving averages are overhead — but the structural setup of a record-low float plus treasury accumulation means any genuine demand return could produce an outsized move. That's a market to trade with defined levels: buy near $1,600 support, fade rallies into $1,865, and watch for a reclaim of the 50-day to confirm the bounce is real. ETH at $1,750 is balanced between a coiled-spring supply setup and a broken demand picture.

The forecast: fade $1,865 until it breaks, defend $1,600

Put it together and Ethereum's near-term stance is neutral-to-bearish with a pivot at $1,600 and a coiled structural setup underneath. ETH at $1,750 is a 13% relief bounce inside a brutal drawdown — up sharply off the $1,500 low on the soft-jobs macro that lifted all of crypto, but still 65% below its nearly $5,000 August 2025 peak and down about 32% year-over-year. The bounce reclaimed the 20-day EMA at $1,708, which is progress, but ETH sits below the 50-day at $1,865, the 100-day at $2,037 and the 200-day at $2,317 — a bearish structure that argues for fading rallies until the token proves it can climb through the averages. The near-term picture is a wash of opposing forces. Bearish: the crypto ETF outflows that hit a record in June are draining the institutional bid, active users are at new lows, and rival chains like Solana have compressed Ethereum's TVL share to 53-54%. Bullish: the macro tailwind from soft jobs, the record-low 14.5 million ETH exchange reserves setting up a supply squeeze, BitMine's 5.6 million ETH treasury, the Fusaka upgrade due in H2, and the new Ethereum Institutional on-ramp. The levels are clean. $1,865 is the wall the bounce has to break to matter — clear it and $2,000 and the 100-day at $2,037 come into play; fail there and ETH rolls back toward support. $1,600 is the near-term floor and $1,500 is the level that defines the drawdown — lose it and $1,450 and $1,400 open up. The structural setup is the reason for medium-term constructiveness: a tightening float plus corporate accumulation plus the staking-yield institutional case means any genuine demand return could produce an outsized rally. The near-term flows are the reason for caution: until the ETH ETF tape turns green and active users recover, every rally fights the gravity of a draining institutional base. The verdict into the week: fade rallies into $1,865 until ETH proves it can reclaim the 50-day, defend $1,600 with $1,500 as the last line, and watch the ETF flows and the Fusaka progress for the trend change. Neutral-to-bearish near term on the flow and usage headwinds, constructive longer-term on the supply squeeze and the roadmap, and entirely dependent on whether demand returns to meet the coiling float. ETH at $1,750 is a bounce that has to prove itself — respect $1,600, fade $1,865, and let the flows lead.

That's TradingNEWS