Ethereum Drops to $2,385 as ETH/BTC Slides to 0.0292 and ETHA Bleeds $109.8M — $2,250 Next Unless $2,390 Is Reclaimed

Ether is the weakest major asset in the crypto selloff. ETH-USD traded at $2,384.88 at 10:43 a.m. ET Thursday, down $46.75 or 1.92% on the session. It opened the day at $2,418.43, 3.1% below Wednesday’s open, and slid to $2,360.28 by 7:25 a.m. ET before the US producer price report triggered another leg lower to an intraday low of $2,325.69.

The 24-hour range shows how violent the move was. Ether traded between $2,332.43 and $2,524.82 over the past 24 hours, a $192 spread equal to 8% of the current price. Trading volume hit $17.79 billion. Market capitalization stands at $288.11 billion on a circulating supply of 122.14 million ETH.

The daily candles tell the story of a two-week slide. Ether closed at $2,726.97 on October 4. It dropped 4.52% on October 7 to $2,576.16, slid to $2,474.30 on October 8, bounced to $2,536.88 on October 11, then lost ground again to $2,446.81 on October 12. A brief recovery to $2,498.02 on October 13 failed, and Wednesday’s hot CPI print sent the coin down 3.06% to $2,421.63 after an intraday low of $2,408.03.

That sequence broke a key level. Ether has fallen below $2,390, a support level that had held since mid-August. Thursday’s intraday low of $2,325.69 marks the deepest trade below that floor. The current price at $2,384.88 sits just under it, which makes the next few sessions a test of whether the breakdown sticks.

The longer-term picture is worse than Bitcoin’s. Ether is down 6% from its open one week ago, 3.8% over one month and 41.4% over one year. One year ago, ETH traded at $4,149.18. The all-time high of $4,953.73 from August 2025 sits 52% above the current price.

From October 4’s close of $2,726.97, Ether has lost 12.5% in 11 days. Over the same window, Bitcoin fell less than half that much in percentage terms. Ether is carrying a higher beta to the macro selloff, and the gap is widening.

The year-to-date picture adds context. Ether started 2026 at $2,971.55 and closed the first quarter at $2,101.84, a 29.27% decline. It dropped below $1,800 at its 2026 low before rallying into the $2,700s by early October. At $2,384.88, ETH is down 19.7% for the year and 33% above its 2026 low.

The forecast question is whether Ether holds the $2,325-$2,390 zone or extends the breakdown toward $2,250. The macro, flow and treasury data all lean toward the second outcome in the near term.

6.3% PPI and 3.7% CPI: The Macro Trigger

The selling started with US inflation data. The September Producer Price Index rose 1.3% for the month and 6.3% over 12 months, the largest monthly gain since March 2022 and the biggest annual increase since December 2022. Forecasts called for 0.6% monthly and 5.5% annual. The print more than doubled consensus.

Producer prices showed broad pressure. Final demand goods prices rose 2.6%, the largest increase since the series began in December 2009, with energy up 10.8% and gasoline up 20.3%. Core producer prices, which exclude food, energy and trade services, rose 0.5% for the month and 5.0% over 12 months. Services prices rose 0.8%, the biggest gain since April.

Consumer prices set the stage on Wednesday. September CPI rose 3.7% annually against a 3.6% forecast, with core at 2.6% against 2.5%, up from 3.4% and 2.4% in August. Ether’s 3.06% drop Wednesday came directly from that print, a bigger decline than Bitcoin posted on the same data.

Retail sales offered no relief. Headline sales rose 0.8% in September, beating a 0.3% forecast, but the control group that feeds GDP rose only 0.1% against 0.3%, after 1.4% in August. Gasoline prices drove most of the headline. Rising prices with stalling real spending is a stagflation mix, and stagflation is hostile to any asset priced on future liquidity.

The Fed response is the key channel. Before Wednesday’s CPI, futures priced a 22.1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. After the release, odds jumped above 49% before settling below 45%. December hike odds stood at 89.7%. The Fed’s target range sits at 3.75%-4.00% after September’s hike.

Ether responds to liquidity more than Bitcoin does. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a volatile asset, tighten dollar funding for leveraged traders and push allocators to cut risk. Ether, with a larger share of leveraged and speculative positioning than Bitcoin, takes each of those hits harder.

The Treasury market sent a mixed signal. The 10-year yield fell 14 basis points to 5.05% Thursday, but the drop reflected a flight to safety from US tech stocks, not easier policy expectations. Falling yields driven by fear don’t help risk assets like Ether. They signal investors are moving away from them.

The next macro catalyst is Friday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks, and monthly crypto options expire. A hawkish tone would likely push Ether below $2,325.

ETH/BTC at 0.0292: Ether Loses the Relative-Value Fight

The ETH/BTC ratio captures Ether’s underperformance in one number. The ratio fell to 0.0292 from 0.0299 a day earlier, a 2.3% drop in Ether’s relative value in a single session. Over 24 hours, Ether fell 6.2% to $2,358 while Bitcoin fell 3.5%, as of the early UTC snapshot.

Market share shifted with it. Ether’s dominance of total crypto market value fell to 10.1%, while Bitcoin’s rose to 57.2%. Total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.84 trillion. Decentralized finance tokens fell 11% over the same period, which shows the selling hit the Ethereum ecosystem harder than the asset alone.

Relative weakness of this kind follows a familiar pattern. In risk-off phases, capital consolidates into the most liquid crypto asset or leaves crypto entirely. Bitcoin’s deeper liquidity, larger ETF base and corporate treasury demand make it the default holding when investors de-risk inside crypto. Ether, with smaller institutional flows and heavier leverage, loses share.

The ratio’s trend over the year matches the price trend. Ether fell 52% from its August 2025 high while Bitcoin fell 36% from its October 2025 high. That gap in drawdowns shows Ether has underperformed throughout the correction, not just this week.

For the forecast, ETH/BTC is a leading indicator. A stabilization of the ratio above 0.029 would signal relative-value selling is exhausting, which usually precedes a broader altcoin recovery. A break toward 0.028 would confirm continued risk aversion, with Ether falling faster than Bitcoin in dollar terms.

The Bitcoin context matters. Bitcoin traded near $80,284 Thursday, down 2.38%, testing the $80,000 level. If Bitcoin breaks $80,000, Ether will likely fall harder in percentage terms given its higher beta. At the current ratio, a Bitcoin move to $77,943, its level one month ago, would imply Ether near $2,275 without any further deterioration in the ratio.

The reverse also holds. A Bitcoin recovery to $84,000 at a stable 0.0292 ratio would put Ether near $2,450. But in recoveries, the ratio usually rises as altcoins outperform, which would add upside. That asymmetry makes ETH/BTC the single most important number to watch alongside Bitcoin’s $80,000 level.

The DeFi drop adds a fundamental layer. An 11% decline in decentralized finance tokens signals lower expectations for on-chain activity, which feeds back into Ether demand through gas fees and collateral use.

$292 Million Liquidated: Ether Leads the Long Flush

Leverage turned the inflation shock into forced selling. Total crypto liquidations over 24 hours reached $973 million, up 588% from the prior day, with longs making up more than $894 million and shorts $78.52 million. Ether led all assets with more than $292 million liquidated, ahead of Bitcoin at more than $200 million.

The ratio is striking. Ether’s market cap of $288.11 billion is a fraction of Bitcoin’s $1.63 trillion, yet Ether liquidations exceeded Bitcoin’s by 46%. That means leveraged positioning in Ether was far heavier relative to its size, and the unwind hit price harder.

This was the third major flush in four days. On Monday, October 12, crypto liquidations hit $820.84 million across 170,649 traders, with Ether at $183.55 million and Bitcoin at $194.28 million. Ether fell 3.55% that day to $2,446.81 after trading as high as $2,579.17. The Tuesday rebound to $2,498.02 rebuilt long exposure, and Wednesday’s CPI print wiped it out again.

Funding rates stayed positive through the selloff. Positive funding during a downtrend means leveraged traders keep paying to hold long positions. Those positions become fuel for the next liquidation wave if support breaks. The healthiest reset would show funding rates falling to zero or negative while price holds above $2,325.

Open interest remained elevated before CPI. Market-wide crypto open interest fell only 2% to $140.9 billion after Monday’s flush, leaving plenty of leverage to unwind on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday’s $292 million Ether liquidation likely cleared more of it, but not enough to call a bottom.

There is a constructive angle. Each liquidation wave removes forced sellers from the market. If Ether’s open interest drops meaningfully after Thursday’s flush and price stabilizes, the setup for a relief rally improves. Short liquidations of $78.52 million show that some traders were already positioned bearishly, which provides fuel for a squeeze if price reverses sharply.

The key variable is whether spot buyers step in. Liquidation-driven drops often recover partially once forced selling ends, but sustained recoveries need spot demand from ETFs or treasury companies. This week, both of those channels weakened, which leaves the market dependent on leverage reset alone.

For now, the liquidation data reads bearish in the short term. Ether lost $2,390 on forced selling, and until open interest resets further, the risk of another flush below $2,325 remains high.

ETF Outflows: $129.5 Million Out, ETHA Takes 85%

Institutional flows confirmed the risk-off turn. US spot Ether ETFs posted net outflows of $129.51 million on October 14, reversing $24.84 million of inflows the prior day. Three of the 11 funds recorded outflows: the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with $109.83 million, the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) with $18.76 million and Franklin’s EZET with $0.92 million.

ETHA dominated the selling. Its $109.83 million outflow accounted for 85% of the category total. ETHA’s cumulative net inflows since launch now stand at $12.608 billion. Grayscale’s Mini Trust has cumulative inflows of $2.007 billion.

The broader October picture is weaker. In the week of October 5-9, Ether ETFs posted $542.2 million in outflows, with ETHA responsible for $477.1 million, or 88%. ETHA’s $201.9 million withdrawal on one day that week was the entire category’s loss. Ether funds posted net outflows for nine consecutive trading sessions starting September 29, a streak that drained $700 million before the October 13 inflow briefly interrupted it.

Assets have shrunk with price and flows. Total net assets across spot Ether ETFs stand at $15.2 billion, equivalent to 5.15% of Ether’s market cap. Cumulative net inflows total $13.07 billion. ETHA holds $8.27 billion in net assets, Grayscale’s Mini Trust $2.24 billion and Grayscale’s ETHE $1.72 billion.

Trading activity stayed heavy. Total volume across spot Ether ETFs reached $866.2 million Wednesday, with ETHA at $707.79 million, Grayscale’s ETHE at $56.51 million and Grayscale’s Mini Trust at $41.43 million. Heavy volume on an outflow day signals active repositioning rather than passive drift.

The comparison with Bitcoin ETFs is telling. Bitcoin ETFs lost $261.4 million Wednesday, double the Ether outflow in dollars. But Bitcoin ETF assets are far larger, so as a share of assets, Ether funds are bleeding faster. Combined, US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs lost $390.5 million Wednesday.

The year’s record shows the fragility. Ether ETFs posted inflows on 97 of 197 trading days in 2026, less than half. ETHA accounted for 52% of gross inflows this year, which means its outflows hit the category hardest when they come.

Thursday’s flow data, due after the US close, will show whether the PPI print accelerated redemptions. A second consecutive outflow above $100 million would confirm institutions are cutting Ether exposure into the Fed meeting.

ETHA Through the Cycle: A 29% First-Quarter Drop and What It Shows

The largest Ether fund’s filings show how the asset has traded through 2026. According to the iShares Ethereum Trust 10-Q, the trust’s net asset value fell from $10,300,756,520 at December 31, 2025 to $6,378,405,156 at March 31, 2026, a 38.08% decline. Ether’s price fell 29.27% over the quarter, from $2,971.55 to $2,101.84.

Per-share NAV tracked price closely. ETHA’s financial statement NAV dropped 29.34% from $22.46 to $15.87 over the quarter. The quarter’s high NAV of $25.50 came on January 14, and the low of $14.01 came on February 23. That range implies Ether traded between roughly $3,370 and $1,850 in the first quarter alone, a swing of 45% from peak to trough.

The gap between NAV decline and price decline shows redemptions. Net assets fell 38.08% while the price fell 29.27%. The 8.8-percentage-point difference reflects shares redeemed during the quarter as investors withdrew capital on top of the price decline.

Realized losses came with it. The trust recorded a net realized loss of $737.72 million from Ether sold for redemptions, a $191.02 million realized loss on in-kind redemptions and an unrealized loss of $2.06 billion on Ether held. The net decrease in net assets from operations totaled $3.00 billion for the quarter.

Since then, ETHA has rebuilt and drained again. Net assets stood at $8.27 billion as of Wednesday, above the March 31 level, reflecting both Ether’s partial recovery and inflows during the summer. October’s outflows, led by ETHA, have started reversing that rebuild.

The pattern matters for the forecast. ETHA holders sold into the first-quarter decline and returned during the summer rally. That momentum-driven behavior amplifies price moves in both directions. When price falls and ETHA redeems, the fund sells Ether into the market, adding to downward pressure.

Cumulative flows still sit well above zero. ETHA’s $12.608 billion in cumulative net inflows means most of its capital came in at higher prices. Many of those holders sit on losses at $2,384.88, which raises the risk of further redemptions if the price keeps falling, especially below the $2,101.84 first-quarter close.

BitMine Holds 6.03 Million ETH and Says Stacking Is Nearly Done

The largest corporate buyer of Ether is close to its target, and that changes the demand picture. BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) bought 12,532 ETH in the week to October 11, taking its treasury to 6,028,946 ETH, or 4.9% of Ether’s 122.1 million token supply. That was the company’s third small weekly purchase in a row, after 15,112 ETH in the week to October 4 and 17,362 ETH the week before.

The pace has slowed sharply. Earlier this year, BitMine bought between 45,000 and 76,000 ETH per week, and in one week acquired 126,971 ETH, its largest weekly purchase of 2026. Three straight weeks below 18,000 ETH mark a structural shift in the biggest source of corporate demand.

Management has signaled the end of accumulation. In a video message filed with the SEC on October 7, BitMine’s chairman said the company built its position over 15 months and needs 100,000 more ETH to reach its 5% target. He added that BitMine is done stacking as a bull market starts.

The math is simple. At recent weekly purchase rates of 12,000 to 17,000 ETH, BitMine would complete its remaining 100,000 ETH within six to eight weeks. After that, the company’s buying would drop to zero, removing a buyer that absorbed millions of ETH over the past year.

At Thursday’s price, BitMine’s position is worth $14.38 billion. The company has staked 5,067,309 ETH, or 84% of its holdings, generating yield rather than holding idle tokens. It also holds 214 BTC, a $180 million stake in Beast Industries and $85 million in Eightco Holdings.

Staking reduces liquid supply. With 84% of BitMine’s Ether locked in staking, more than 5 million ETH are effectively removed from active trading. That supports price stability by reducing the float available to sell, but it doesn’t add new demand.

The timing problem is clear. BitMine’s slowdown coincides with ETF outflows and the macro selloff. In earlier corrections, BitMine bought aggressively into weakness, adding 200,000 ETH in one week after a liquidation wave. This time, the company is buying small amounts while ETFs redeem. The two largest institutional demand channels are pulling back at the same time.

For the forecast, BitMine’s slowdown removes a floor. Without a large, price-insensitive buyer stepping in on dips, Ether’s support levels rely more on leverage resets and spot buyers, both of which are weaker during risk-off phases.

Supply Growth at 0.64%: The Burn Isn’t Keeping Up

Ether’s supply dynamics have turned into a headwind. Through early October 2026, fee burns offset only 2% of new ETH issued, resulting in net supply growth of 0.64%. Ether’s original deflationary narrative depended on high network activity burning more tokens than validators earn. That condition hasn’t held this year.

Low burn rates reflect low on-chain demand. Burns scale with gas fees, which rise when the network is congested. With activity shifting to layer-2 networks that settle cheaply on Ethereum’s base layer, base-layer fees have stayed low, and fewer tokens are burned.

Net issuance adds steady sell pressure. With circulating supply at 122.14 million ETH, 0.64% annual growth adds roughly 780,000 new tokens per year. Validators receiving new ETH as rewards often sell part of it to cover costs, creating a constant supply flow that buyers must absorb.

Staking offsets part of that. Large holders like BitMine stake most of their Ether, removing it from liquid supply. Staking yields, which ran at 2.73% on a seven-day basis earlier this year for BitMine, attract long-term holders who want income. That locks up supply but doesn’t remove it permanently.

The DeFi decline compounds the issue. A 11% drop in DeFi tokens Thursday signals weaker expectations for on-chain lending, trading and collateral use. Lower DeFi activity means lower gas fees, lower burns and higher net supply growth. That loop reinforces Ether’s underperformance during risk-off phases.

Compare that with Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s supply grows at a fixed, declining rate set by protocol, and its issuance after the 2024 halving runs below 1% a year. Bitcoin also has no equivalent of staking yield, which makes its supply profile simpler for institutions to model. Ether’s variable supply, dependent on network activity, adds uncertainty that allocators discount in volatile markets.

The upside case for supply is activity recovery. If on-chain demand rebounds, through a DeFi recovery or new applications, burns would rise and net supply growth would fall. That would restore part of the scarcity argument and support a rerating of Ether against Bitcoin.

For now, supply is a slow-moving headwind rather than a trigger. It doesn’t cause sharp drops, but it removes a source of support that previously helped Ether outperform during recoveries.

The AI Selloff and Crypto: Where Ether Fits

The broader market context explains why Ether is falling with tech stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.05% to 26,411.88 Thursday after a 1.9% drop Wednesday, as chip stocks lost ground for an eighth straight session. South Korea’s Kospi fell 7.57% overnight, with SK Hynix down 11% and Samsung down 9%.

The AI credit scare spread across risk assets. CoreWeave fell 6.89% to $61.25 at Thursday’s open after a 15.46% drop Wednesday, on concerns about its debt load and rising bond yields. Bitcoin miners that converted to AI hosting, including Cipher Digital, IREN, Core Scientific and TeraWulf, fell more than 12% Wednesday.

Ether trades inside that risk basket. Institutional crypto holders often own Ether alongside high-growth tech stocks, and when risk budgets get cut, they sell across the board. Ether’s 41.4% decline over one year reflects that correlation with the most speculative parts of the equity market.

Safe havens took the other side. Gold futures rose 1.79% to $4,181.30 Thursday, and silver gained 1.62% to $56.78. Long-dated Treasuries rallied. Investors cutting exposure to AI stocks and crypto moved into the traditional havens, leaving Ether with sellers and few new buyers.

The volatility index stayed moderate. The VIX traded at 17.70, up 4.9%, elevated but well below crisis levels. A moderate VIX alongside heavy crypto liquidations suggests the selling is concentrated in leveraged, speculative positions rather than a broad market panic.

The correlation creates both risk and opportunity. If the AI selloff deepens, Ether is likely to fall further, potentially faster than Bitcoin given its higher beta. If tech stocks stabilize and AI credit fears ease, Ether stands to rebound sharply as liquidated longs re-enter and short positions get squeezed.

The miner contagion is a link to watch. Bitcoin miners turned AI hosts sit at the intersection of crypto and AI infrastructure. Their recovery would signal easing stress in both markets. Their continued decline would point to more pressure on crypto overall, including Ether.

For Ether specifically, the AI selloff adds a second layer of pressure on top of the macro data. Inflation pushes rates higher, and AI credit fears push risk appetite lower. Both forces hit high-beta assets hardest.

Technical Map: $2,325 Floor, $2,390 Pivot, $2,570 Ceiling

The chart has a clear structure after Thursday’s breakdown. The former support at $2,390, which held since mid-August, is now the pivot level. The current price at $2,384.88 sits just below it, which makes the next daily close critical.

Support starts at Thursday’s intraday low of $2,325.69. The 24-hour low at $2,332.43 sits just above it. Below that, the next downside level is $2,250, a 5.7% drop from the current price. A break below $2,250 would expose the first-quarter close at $2,101.84, a level where ETHA saw heavy redemptions earlier this year.

Resistance is layered above. The first ceiling is $2,390, the broken support. Above that, Wednesday’s open near $2,500 and the October 13 close at $2,498.02 form the next barrier. The October 14 high at $2,528.19 and the 24-hour high at $2,524.82 add to resistance in that zone. Beyond that, $2,570 marks the top of the range Ether traded in since August.

The scenarios from that structure are clear. Recovering $2,390 and clearing $2,570 would open a move toward $2,800. Reclaiming $2,390 would restore trading between $2,390 and $2,570. Continued rejection below $2,390 would send Ether toward $2,250.

The pattern of the past two weeks is a series of lower highs. Ether peaked at $2,774.01 on October 2, failed at $2,738.75 on October 4, reached $2,700.08 on October 7, $2,588.35 on October 8, $2,579.17 on October 12, $2,538.46 on October 13 and $2,528.19 on October 14. Each rally has stalled lower than the last.

The lows have fallen too. From $2,651.74 on October 2 to $2,543.77 on October 7, $2,408.36 on October 8, $2,408.03 on October 14 and $2,325.69 on October 15. The structure is a clean downtrend with no sign of a higher low yet.

The daily close sets the bias. A close above $2,390 would signal the breakdown was a liquidation wick rather than a sustained move. A close below $2,325 would confirm the downtrend and target $2,250 within days.

Scenarios Into October 28: $2,250 Downside, $2,800 Upside

The base case is a weak range with a downward tilt. If Fed hike odds stay elevated, ETF flows remain mixed and BitMine keeps buying in small size, Ether trades between $2,250 and $2,500 into the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Rallies toward $2,500 meet sellers, and dips toward $2,300 attract short-term buyers after liquidations clear. Ether ends October near $2,350-$2,450.

The bearish case requires a hawkish Fed and continued risk-off. If Warsh signals that October is live, Bitcoin breaks $80,000 and Ether ETF outflows extend past $100 million a day, Ether breaks $2,325 and targets $2,250. A Fed hike on October 28 would likely push the coin toward the first-quarter close at $2,101.84, a 12% drop from current levels. In that scenario, ETH/BTC would likely fall toward 0.028.

The bullish case needs a reversal in macro and flows. If Warsh signals patience, AI credit fears ease and Ether ETFs return to inflows above $100 million, Ether reclaims $2,390 quickly as short positions get squeezed. A daily close above $2,570 opens a move toward $2,800, a 17% gain from current levels. A Fed hold on October 28 combined with a rebound in the ETH/BTC ratio above 0.030 would provide the fuel.

The probabilities favor the base and bearish cases. Ether has broken a two-month support level, ETF flows are negative for October, the largest corporate buyer is near the end of its accumulation program, supply is growing at 0.64% a year and the macro backdrop is hostile. Each factor alone would be manageable. Together, they point toward further weakness before any durable recovery.

Three triggers will decide the path. First, Bitcoin’s $80,000 level, since Ether falls harder when Bitcoin breaks support. Second, daily Ether ETF flows, where a return to inflows on a down day would signal dip buying. Third, the ETH/BTC ratio, where stabilization above 0.029 would be the first sign of relative strength returning.

The longer-term case remains intact for patient holders. Ether ETFs hold $15.2 billion in assets, BitMine has staked 84% of its 6.03 million ETH, and Ether trades 33% above its 2026 low. But the near-term setup favors caution.

Verdict: Bearish Into the Fed, $2,390 Is the Line

Ether is the weakest major crypto asset in this selloff. ETH-USD traded at $2,384.88 Thursday after losing $2,390, a support level that held since mid-August, and printing an intraday low of $2,325.69. The coin has fallen 12.5% since October 4, 41.4% over one year and 52% from its all-time high of $4,953.73.

The pressure comes from every direction. A 6.3% US producer price print and a 3.7% CPI pushed October Fed hike odds from 22.1% to as high as 49%. Ether led crypto liquidations with more than $292 million wiped out in 24 hours, exceeding Bitcoin’s total despite a market cap less than a fifth of its size. Spot Ether ETFs lost $129.5 million Wednesday, with ETHA accounting for 85%, after $542.2 million in outflows the prior week. The ETH/BTC ratio fell to 0.0292, and Ether’s market share slid to 10.1%.

The demand backstop is weakening. BitMine, the largest corporate holder with 6,028,946 ETH, bought just 12,532 ETH last week, its third straight small purchase, and needs only 100,000 more to reach its 5% target. Net supply is growing at 0.64% because fee burns offset only 2% of issuance. DeFi tokens fell 11%.

The forecast is bearish in the near term. Expect Ether to trade between $2,250 and $2,500 into the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with a daily close below $2,325 opening a path to $2,250 and then $2,101.84. Only a daily close back above $2,390, followed by a break of $2,570, would flip the setup and target $2,800. Until then, $2,390 is the line that defines Ether’s direction, and the bias leans toward a retest of the lows rather than a recovery.

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