Ethereum Price Forecast – ETH-USD at $2,9K as BoJ Hike and Ethereum ETF Outflows Pressure Key Support

Ethereum price (ETH-USD) slides toward $2,900 as macro stress and ETF outflows bite

ETH-USD is trading in the $2,900–$2,960 zone on December 19 after touching an intraday low near $2,781, down roughly 18% from last week’s peak around $3,390 and about 39% below its yearly high. The move is driven by a combination of spot ETF redemptions, a hawkish global rates backdrop and heavy derivatives liquidations, all sitting on top of a clearly bearish technical structure rather than a random dip.

Macro backdrop: BoJ and Fed pressure risk assets and spill into ETH-USD

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, the highest level in about three decades. Earlier BoJ hikes in March 2024, July 2024 and January 2025 were followed by Bitcoin drawdowns of roughly 27%, 30% and 30%, setting a repeated pattern of post-decision stress in crypto. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is signalling fewer rate cuts in early 2026, effectively extending a “higher-for-longer” regime for real yields. That combination is negative for long-duration risk assets, and ETH-USD is reacting alongside BTC-USD and XRP-USD, with Bitcoin slipping below a key $85,569 Fibonacci support toward $85,300 and XRP trading near a two-month low at $1.78.

Daily structure on ETH-USD: failed $3,400–$3,600 breakout flips into full downtrend

On the daily chart, ETH-USD has transitioned from trend expansion to a persistent decline. The October rejection in the $3,400–$3,600 band broke the previous sequence of higher highs and initiated a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Price now sits below the entire EMA stack, with the 20-day EMA near $3,030, the 50-day around $3,217, and the 100- and 200-day EMAs grouped just above $3,400. This full “bear alignment” – price under all major averages and the short averages trending beneath the long ones – confirms that downside control is with sellers. Daily RSI has shifted into the mid-30s, clearly below the neutral 50 level, indicating sustained weakness rather than oversold capitulation, while MACD produced a bearish crossover mid-week and continues to slope down, showing that the downtrend still has momentum.

Pattern risk: broadening wedge break and an inverse cup-and-handle around $2,629

Over roughly four weeks, ETH-USD developed an ascending broadening wedge, with higher highs and higher lows but expanding volatility, a structure that frequently resolves lower. Price is now testing the lower boundary of that wedge; a decisive daily close beneath it would confirm a bearish reversal out of the pattern. Beneath that sits a larger inverse cup-and-handle structure with a neckline near $2,629, defined over several months. If ETH-USD loses $2,629 on a closing basis, the market effectively validates that larger bearish pattern, which implies room for a further down-leg and makes a test of the $2,400 area – a major floor throughout 2025 – a realistic scenario rather than a tail event.

Short-term behaviour: compression around $2,900, not a confirmed base

On intraday timeframes, the character of the decline in ETH-USD has shifted from sharp selling to compression. Price flushed into the $2,780–$2,820 band and then rebounded toward $2,950, with short-term trend tools starting to stabilise: a common volatility‐tracking indicator has turned marginally supportive around $2,857, and another trend-following signal has rotated under price, indicating that immediate pressure has eased. The rebound is still capped, however, by the $2,980–$3,020 band, which has flipped from support into resistance, with an additional cap near $3,017 on the daily chart. As long as ETH-USD trades below roughly $3,000–$3,050, these moves should be viewed as back-tests inside a downtrend rather than the start of a new bullish leg.

*Flows and positioning: six days of ETF outflows and $158M in liquidations

The flow picture reinforces the bearish technicals around ETH-USD. US-listed spot Ether ETFs have posted six consecutive sessions of net outflows, removing about $630 million of exposure, which is a direct signal that institutional capital is reducing risk. Spot market data show persistent net outflows over recent months; although the size of daily outflows has moderated, there is still no clean evidence of sustained accumulation comparable to earlier bullish phases in ETH-USD, when steady inflows absorbed sell pressure. In derivatives, both trading volume and open interest have risen, indicating active positioning rather than apathy, while a modest net long tilt is offset by roughly $158 million of positions liquidated in the last 24 hours, hitting both sides as volatility spikes. Trend indicators such as Aroon show readings near 92.86% on the downside line and around 35.71% on the upside line, quantifying a regime in which new lows dominate and attempted rebounds quickly run into supply.

Key ETH-USD levels: $2,900 pivot, $2,749 Fibonacci, $2,629 neckline, $2,400 floor

The immediate roadmap for ETH-USD is defined by a cluster of concrete prices. The $2,900 region is the current pivot and coincides with an earlier consolidation base from this year, where selling has slowed but not reversed. The broader $2,800–$2,900 band is the zone that has historically attracted demand; losing that area with strong volume would be a clear signal that the market is prepared to price in a deeper reset. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest impulse stands near $2,749; a daily close below that level would confirm that this is more than a shallow correction. The multi-month inverse cup-and-handle neckline around $2,629 is the structural line that separates extended pullback from full trend break. Beneath that, $2,400 is the key floor that has held repeatedly through 2025; if price trades into this region after losing $2,629, it becomes the last credible support before a more aggressive repricing lower. On the topside, intraday resistance remains around $2,980–$3,020, with a nearby daily cap at $3,017. A sustained move back over $3,100–$3,200 would be the first serious indication that bears are losing control of the tape, while reclaiming $3,400–$3,600 and the 100- and 200-day EMAs would be required to re-establish a clear uptrend.

ETH-USD in the wider complex: Bitcoin and XRP under the same BoJ shadow

The broader crypto complex gives additional context for ETH-USD price action. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was rejected at the $90,000 psychological barrier earlier in the week, initially held the $85,569 78.6% retracement level and then closed below it, now trading near $85,300 with daily RSI also around the mid-30s and a bearish MACD cross, leaving $80,000 as the next obvious downside reference. XRP (XRP-USD), meanwhile, broke below key daily support at $1.96, extended its two-week decline to roughly 3.22%, and printed a two-month low near $1.78, with daily RSI near 30 and a negative MACD signal still in place. Historically, the BoJ’s hiking cycle has been followed by repeated 30%-type drawdowns in BTC-USD, and given ETH-USD’s high beta to Bitcoin, a renewed wave of deleveraging in BTC would likely drag Ethereum toward the $2,629 neckline and potentially the $2,400 floor, especially if ETF outflows and weak spot demand persist.

BMNR as an ETH-USD proxy: large ETH treasury, staking plan and dilution overhang

The ETH-USD story is also embedded in publicly listed balance sheets, and BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is effectively trading as a leveraged proxy on the Ethereum cycle. Company disclosures indicate that BitMine holds about 3,967,210 ETH, valued using an internal reference price near $3,074, alongside roughly 193 BTC, around $1.0 billion in cash and a portfolio of smaller “moonshot” positions, which management frames as approximately $13.2–$13.3 billion of crypto, cash and speculative stakes. The firm estimates that this represents more than 3.2% of total ETH supply and has publicly targeted 5%. That strategy turns BMNR into a listed ETH balance sheet whose equity value is highly sensitive to ETH-USD. The next strategic step is the rollout of the MAVAN staking platform in early 2026, which would convert a significant slice of that ETH into yield-bearing staked assets and tie cash flow directly to staking rewards and slashing risk. At the same time, the capital structure introduces substantial dilution risk: proxy materials for the January 15, 2026 annual meeting include a proposed charter amendment authorising 50 billion common shares and 20 million preferred shares, for a total of 50.02 billion authorised shares. Even if the company never approaches that ceiling, the size of the authorisation creates a constant overhang for equity holders. Recent filings also detail a CFO transition, with the current finance chief due to depart around January 16, 2026 after a defined transition period and a prior resignation from the board, while a law firm has announced a shareholder investigation into recent corporate actions. Trading data show that BMNR has cited a five-day average dollar volume near $1.9 billion, with the stock recently around $28.43, down about 3.02% at that snapshot, and external consensus price targets clustered in the high-40s to low-60s bracket, with an average near $54.57. For ETH-USD watchers, the implication is clear: as long as ETH trades in the $2,600–$3,200 range, BMNR behaves like a high-beta, governance-loaded proxy on that band; a break toward $2,400 would compress BitMine’s treasury value and stress any valuation model that leans on clean staking execution, whereas a sustained ETH recovery back above $3,200 and then $3,400–$3,600 would support the case for BMNR as a geared way to ride an Ethereum rebound.

ETH-USD verdict: Hold with a bearish bias while $2,400 stays intact

Combining macro, technicals, flows and cross-asset context, ETH-USD sits in a controlled but vulnerable correction. The BoJ’s move to 0.75% and a cautious Fed path keep global liquidity tight, the daily chart is clearly bearish with price below all major EMAs and momentum pointing down, ETF and spot flows show net outflows and derisking rather than accumulation, and key levels such as $2,749, $2,629 and $2,400 define a downside corridor that is still very much in play. At current levels around $2,900–$2,960, ETH-USD is best characterised as a Hold with a clear short-term bearish bias, with elevated risk of a test of the $2,629 neckline and potentially the $2,400 floor before a durable base develops. For aggressive traders, the structure still favours selling rallies into the $2,980–$3,200 area rather than chasing upside, while longer-term participants already positioned in ETH-USD do not have enough confirmation yet to justify upgrading this to an outright Buy, nor enough structural damage while $2,400 holds to warrant a blanket Sell. The next decisive signal will be either a clean daily close above $3,200, which would show bears finally losing control, or a confirmed break below $2,629, which would validate the inverse cup-and-handle and force the market to discover a lower equilibrium.

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