Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Falls to $3,650 Despite $294M Institutional Buy

Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Breaks Below $3,700 as Selling Pressure Builds Despite Record Treasury Accumulation

Ethereum (ETH-USD) has fallen sharply to around $3,650, down more than 6% in 24 hours, as the crypto market faces renewed risk-off sentiment following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that another rate cut in December is “far from guaranteed.” This remark immediately shifted market expectations, pushing odds of a December cut from 90% down to 68%, while triggering a pullback across major assets. For Ethereum, this policy uncertainty compounds technical weakness that has persisted since its rejection near the $4,100–$4,200 resistance zone.

Despite the decline, institutional accumulation continues at scale. BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) announced the purchase of 82,353 ETH last week, expanding its total holdings to 3.39 million ETH, equal to 2.8% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. The firm now controls approximately $12.5 billion worth of ETH, second only to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which holds $69 billion in BTC. BitMine’s acquisition—worth about $294 million—was completed at an average price near $3,909, demonstrating long-term conviction even as prices trend lower. However, the market’s reaction has been muted, as traders interpret institutional buying as defensive accumulation rather than speculative entry.

Technical Breakdown: Key Support Levels at $3,470 and $3,300 Under Threat

On the charts, ETH-USD has decisively broken its short-term uptrend, slipping below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and now testing the 200-day EMA around $3,470—a critical pivot that has historically defined long-term trend direction. A daily close beneath this level could open the path to the next structural support near $3,100, representing a 15% correction from current prices. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 38.6, approaching oversold territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator has already dipped into the oversold zone. This suggests that bearish momentum dominates, though it also raises the probability of a short-term technical rebound toward $3,800–$3,900 if buyers defend the 200-day line.

Trading volumes have surged by 80% over the past 24 hours, reflecting forced liquidations and increased volatility. According to Coinglass data, more than $292 million in ETH positions were liquidated in the last day—$269 million of which were long positions. This liquidation spike indicates capitulation by leveraged traders, a phenomenon often seen near local bottoms. Still, market sentiment remains fragile, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging from 62 to 36 after Powell’s speech, marking its sharpest decline in months.

Institutional Activity and Treasury Expansion Highlight Diverging Behavior

While retail traders reduce exposure, institutions continue accumulating aggressively. BitMine Immersion’s “Alchemy of 5%” initiative aims to own 5% of ETH’s circulating supply by 2026, positioning it as the largest public Ethereum holder. The company’s balance sheet now includes $389 million in cash, 192 BTC worth about $20 million, and a $62 million equity stake in Eightco Holdings (ORBS). Although BMNR shares dropped 25% over the past month, the company remains strategically focused on long-term ETH appreciation, mirroring early Bitcoin treasury accumulation models from 2021–2023.

Ethereum-based ETFs are also showing renewed activity. Total inflows last week reached $15.97 million, led by Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), which recorded $56.05 million in new capital. These inflows confirm that institutional demand for exposure remains intact even as spot prices weaken. However, the broader on-chain data reveals mixed signals—stablecoin supply on Ethereum has risen 15% in eight weeks, and application revenues hit all-time highs, indicating that fundamentals are strengthening faster than price.

Macro Pressure: Fed Policy, Trade Tensions, and Liquidity Stress

Macro conditions continue to weigh on digital assets. The combination of high Treasury yields, elevated inflation, and renewed U.S.–China trade frictions under President Trump’s administration has tightened liquidity across risk markets. This pressure is magnified by the fading expectation of immediate monetary easing. Ethereum’s price, often correlated with Bitcoin (BTC-USD), remains vulnerable as Bitcoin itself retraces below $108,000, marking its first negative monthly close in seven years. These cross-asset headwinds suggest that ETH’s rebound may be delayed until the Federal Reserve signals clearer support for risk assets.

Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki’s crash warnings continue to amplify bearish sentiment. His repeated claims of a “massive crash” in November have resonated across social media, though historically, his calls have often coincided with local market bottoms. The juxtaposition between aggressive treasury accumulation by entities like BitMine and fear-driven retail capitulation underscores the current transition phase—a market searching for a durable equilibrium between strong on-chain fundamentals and weak macro momentum.

Technical Outlook and Sentiment: $3,900 Reclaim Needed to Regain Bullish Momentum

To re-establish a bullish structure, ETH-USD must reclaim and hold above $3,900–$4,000 on a daily closing basis. A move above this range would confirm renewed buying momentum and invalidate the short-term bearish trendline. Until that happens, downside risk toward $3,300 remains dominant. Analysts note that trading below $3,470 for several sessions would confirm a breakdown from the multi-month consolidation zone between $3,400–$4,200.

Market sentiment from the Coinbase Premium Index has also turned deeply negative, reflecting that U.S.-based investors are selling rather than buying at current levels. This divergence between U.S. and Asian demand mirrors previous correction phases. In contrast, Asian exchanges continue to show positive net flows, driven by Chinese and Singaporean participants who see value near $3,500. If these regional flows sustain, Ethereum may stabilize before resuming a slow recovery phase into December.

Intermarket Dynamics: Layer-2 Tokens and DeFi Activity Signal Latent Strength

While Ethereum consolidates, Layer-2 ecosystems such as Arbitrum (ARB) and Optimism (OP) have experienced renewed developer activity. Total value locked (TVL) across Layer-2 platforms has remained above $20 billion, highlighting ongoing adoption even during market stress. Analysts suggest that this divergence between price weakness and network growth implies that Ethereum’s ecosystem remains structurally healthy. Additionally, Remittix (RTX)—a PayFi-focused project on the Ethereum network—has raised over $27.8 million and completed sales of 682 million tokens, positioning itself as one of the standout projects expected to benefit once market sentiment shifts.

Outlook for ETH-USD: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish Recovery Expected

Ethereum’s current technical and macro setup points to a near-term bearish phase, with potential tests of $3,470, $3,300, and possibly $3,100 if selling pressure persists. However, the underlying fundamentals—rising network revenues, increasing stablecoin activity, and strong institutional accumulation—support a medium-term recovery toward $4,000–$4,500 once policy and liquidity conditions stabilize. The probability of a return to $7,000 by late 2026, as projected by Tom Lee, remains contingent on renewed risk appetite and broader crypto inflows.

Verdict: HOLD — Bearish near-term bias with accumulation opportunities between $3,300–$3,470; recovery potential toward $4,500–$5,000 once macro conditions ease and demand returns

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