Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Fights to Hold $2,160 as $1,500 Risk Returns

Ethereum (ETH-USD) price: from failed $3,000 breakout to $2,160 washout

Ethereum (ETH-USD) moved from a rejection in the mid-$3,000s to a full breakdown that erased roughly 37% of value, with price sliding to about $2,160 before rebounding toward $2,300–$2,321 in early February. That decline confirmed the break of the prior ascending structure: ETH now trades well below the former trendline and below the mid-$3,000 supply zone that flipped from support to resistance after the rejection. The current range around $2,200–$2,500 is shaped by a demand band near $2,500 and the local low at $2,160, but the broader daily structure stays bearish as long as Ethereum remains under the key psychological $3,000 level and under its major moving averages. The recent 4.6% bounce off $2,160 is best read as a technical reaction inside a downtrend, not a confirmed reversal.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) long-term holders slash net accumulation by ~90%

On-chain positioning shows a clear drop in conviction from long-term Ethereum holders. The 30-day Hodler Net Position Change peaked near +338,708 ETH on January 18, signaling strong accumulation into earlier strength, then collapsed to roughly +40,953 ETH by February 2 – a reduction of almost 90%. That shift does not signal a panic exodus, but it does mean that the deep-pocket cohort is no longer stepping in aggressively on weakness around $2,200–$2,500. Durable cycle lows usually form when these holders keep adding size while price drops; here they have sharply throttled back their buying during the correction. As long as Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades with muted long-term accumulation, rebounds are vulnerable to renewed supply rather than being the start of a sustained leg higher.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) profitability reset: NUPL signals stress, not yet full capitulation

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for Ethereum has dropped from around 0.25 in late January to roughly 0.007 by February 1, showing that most of the prior paper profits have been wiped but the market is not yet deeply underwater. For comparison, in April 2025 Ethereum’s NUPL sank to about −0.22, marking a clear capitulation phase near $1,472 before ETH later rallied to roughly $4,829 – about a 228% move. Today’s near-zero NUPL level indicates stress and a large reduction in unrealized gains, but not the kind of broad forced-loss environment that historically aligned with major macro bottoms in Ethereum (ETH-USD). If the current pattern rhymes with 2025, the market still has room to push into negative NUPL — likely driven by a deeper price flush — before a high-conviction long-term base is in place.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) exchange flows and leverage: bounces are being sold, not accumulated

Short-term behavior around exchanges confirms that rallies are being used as exits. During the late-January slide toward $2,160–$2,200, daily Ethereum transfer counts fell to roughly 23,000–24,000, signaling that some selling pressure had cooled near the lows. As soon as ETH rebounded, transfers spiked above 37,000 between February 1 and 2 — more than a 50% jump in a single day. That pattern indicates that speculative holders rushed to move coins onto exchanges into strength and likely sold into the bounce instead of adding risk. At the same time, a one-month liquidation heatmap highlights a dense cluster of leveraged positions and stop levels around and especially below $2,500. In a bearish environment, that liquidity pocket becomes a natural downside magnet. A clean break below $2,500 that also takes out $2,160 would put those positions in play and could accelerate Ethereum (ETH-USD) lower by triggering forced liquidations, rather than just organic spot selling.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trend and momentum: corrective uptick inside a strong downside regime

Momentum and trend indicators align with a corrective bounce rather than a trend change. On lower timeframes, MACD has started to print green histogram bars, but the 26-period EMA still sits above the 12-period EMA, so the dominant signal remains bearish even as short-term pressure eases. RSI has recovered from oversold levels but hovers around the mid-30s, far below the neutral 50 mark, showing that sellers still control the tape and that buying power is weak. Structurally, Ethereum continues to print lower highs and lower lows, maintaining a textbook bearish pattern. On the daily chart, Chaikin Money Flow stays firmly negative, confirming persistent net outflows of capital from Ethereum (ETH-USD). The Directional Movement Index keeps the negative directional index above the positive, while the Average Directional Index sits around 39, indicating that the existing downtrend is strong and well-defined rather than turning into sideways noise. Together these signals frame the move toward $2,300 as a dead-cat bounce unless ETH can reclaim and hold much higher levels with visible volume.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) key levels: $2,690 and $2,818 cap upside while $1,540–$1,500 opens on a break

The present map of levels around Ethereum (ETH-USD) is tight and unforgiving. On the downside, the first local support is around $2,250, which has acted as a short-term floor during this bounce. The January low near $2,160 is the critical structural line: a decisive break below both that level and the lower boundary of the falling wedge would invalidate the remaining bullish structure and open risk toward roughly $1,540, a key Fibonacci extension area that aligns with prior major reaction zones. In practical terms, that puts the $1,500 handle back on the table if selling resumes and leverage starts to unwind. On the upside, Ethereum faces layered resistance. The broader demand area around $2,500 has already turned fragile, and any move into the $2,700–$3,000 band is likely to be sold as that region now functions as a stacked supply zone where prior support flipped to resistance. Two pivot levels matter for recovering a convincing bullish narrative: a sustained reclaim of about $2,690 would be the first step, and a break and hold above roughly $2,818 would reopen the path toward $3,200 and the mid-$3,000 range. Until Ethereum (ETH-USD) clears those levels with rising volume, every push higher remains at risk of becoming another exit opportunity.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) derivatives, structure and liquidation zones around $2,500 and below

Futures and liquidation data add an important layer to Ethereum’s risk profile. The one-month liquidation heatmap shows a concentrated band of leveraged long exposure under the $2,500 mark, built up during prior attempts to defend that demand zone and during the grind lower from the mid-$3,000 area. As ETH slid roughly 15% on the week and more than 20% from recent highs, many marginal long positions were forced to adjust; however, a significant stack of stops and liquidation triggers remains just below the current structure. If Ethereum (ETH-USD) closes firmly under the $2,500 demand region and loses $2,160, that stacked liquidity can be swept in a single impulsive move, forcing additional liquidations that would drive price quickly toward deeper supports such as $1,540–$1,500. In that scenario, the market would likely see a spike in realized losses, a sharper NUPL flush, and a temporary volatility overshoot before any sustainable base could form.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) on-chain activity and fundamentals: stress in price, strength in usage

Despite the technical damage, network fundamentals for Ethereum (ETH-USD) have not collapsed. Daily transactions recently hit about 2.8 million, while daily active addresses topped 1 million, levels that stand in stark contrast to the deep winter phases of 2018 and 2022 when on-chain activity dropped alongside price. That divergence – falling price with sustained or rising usage – typically marks stress in positioning rather than decay in the underlying protocol. Ethereum’s ecosystem continues to host significant DeFi, NFT and L2 flows, and that base of real transaction demand is one of the reasons high-conviction analysts still see long-term upside even as spot trades near $2,200–$2,300. The structural issue short-term is not a collapse in utility; it is the unwinding of leverage, profit-taking after a strong prior run, and reduced accumulation by long-term holders in the $2,000–$3,000 band. As those forces play out, fundamentals limit the secular bear case but do not prevent a sharp cyclical drawdown into the $1,500 region if technical levels give way.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) whale flows, Vitalik transactions and cyclical relative value vs BTC and metals

Recent large-wallet activity adds nuance to the picture. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin moved 493 ETH — about $1.16 million — and sent roughly $500,000 in USDC to his Kanro biotech charity, part of a broader pattern that also saw him withdraw 16,384 ETH (around $38.5 million) in January to fund ecosystem development and an aggressive roadmap for scaling Ethereum without sacrificing reliability or decentralization. Those transfers are not simple speculative sells; they reflect treasury use and grant flows, but they still add supply to the market during a weak tape. At the same time, the ETH/BTC chart shows a structure similar to the prior cycle: Ethereum’s decline versus Bitcoin bottomed roughly nine months before gold peaked, then suffered a further 30–40% drop before staging a major run that outperformed BTC by about 300%. Today, the ETH/BTC move is again roughly nine months off a gold high, with a current drawdown near 31%, and Ethereum’s market-cap ratio versus silver has pushed its RSI to all-time lows historically seen only at major bottoms in 2018 and 2022. That combination argues that, on a multi-year horizon, Ethereum (ETH-USD) is approaching relative value extremes against both Bitcoin and metals, even if the absolute dollar price still has room to fall in the near term.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) sentiment split: short-term distribution vs medium-term accumulation theses

Sentiment is clearly divided between shorter-term speculative capital and longer-term institutional and high-conviction flows. One camp of analysts warns that the sharp drop in long-term holder accumulation, the near-zero NUPL, and the spike in exchange transfers on rebounds point to a market still in distribution mode, where every bounce toward $2,500–$2,700 is sold. Another camp focuses on the bigger picture, arguing that the current reset is an “attractive opportunity” because Ethereum’s fundamentals — transaction volume, active addresses, ecosystem expansion — remain strong, while price has already fallen more than 20% on the week to around $2,200 at the low. Some high-beta forecasts even call for a 3x–4x move in Ethereum over the next six months based on pattern analogs to an earlier cycle when ETH went from about $56 to $1,151, now combined with a major supply shortage on centralized exchanges. That aggressive upside scenario assumes that once the current flush completes and leverage is cleared, capital rotates back from defensive trades like gold into higher-beta crypto assets led by Ethereum (ETH-USD).

Ethereum (ETH-USD) verdict: high-risk bullish bias, with $1,500 flush risk before a durable base

Putting all of the data together — the 37% drawdown to $2,160, the 90% collapse in net long-term holder accumulation from +338,708 ETH to +40,953 ETH, the NUPL reset from 0.25 to 0.007, the 50% spike in exchange transfers above 37,000 on rebounds, the persistent negative CMF and strong downtrend signal from an ADX around 39, the liquidation clusters below $2,500, and the still-solid usage metrics with 2.8 million daily transactions and over 1 million active addresses — Ethereum (ETH-USD) sits in a classic high-volatility inflection zone. Short-term, the structure is clearly bearish and the risk of a washout into the $1,540–$1,500 region is real if $2,250 and $2,160 fail and the falling wedge finally breaks down. Medium- to long-term, the combination of strong on-chain activity, relative value extremes against Bitcoin and metals, and an ecosystem still expanding makes the long-horizon case bullish. The clean way to frame it: at current levels around $2,200–$2,300, Ethereum (ETH-USD) leans as a speculative Buy for investors with a multi-year horizon who can tolerate a potential drawdown toward $1,500, while tactically it remains a sell-the-rally market below roughly $2,690–$2,818 for traders focused on the next few weeks.

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