Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Stalls Near $3,200 As $3,400 Wall And $2,800 Reality Check Split ETH-USD

ETH-USD – Trading Between $3,400 Ceiling And The $2,800 Reality Check

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading around $3,200–$3,220, down roughly 3–4% after a rejection near $3,390–$3,400. That level has now acted as resistance multiple times and sits exactly where several signals converge: the value area high of the recent range, the 200-day zone on some charts and the upper boundary of a large symmetrical triangle. On the downside, price is pinned against a dense support cluster: the 50-day EMA around $3,166, a nearby horizontal shelf near $3,080–$3,100, and a key structural line close to $3,050–$3,000. Below that, the next serious demand zones are $2,800, $2,760, and, in the extreme, the longer-term $1,850 objective of the triangle. The market is no longer in euphoria, but Ethereum is not breaking either; it is compressing between a very clear ceiling at $3,400 and a very clear trapdoor beginning just under $3,050.

ETH-USD – Daily Structure Under The 100-Day And 200-Day Averages

On the daily chart ETH-USD is still in a corrective regime under its key moving averages. Price has been oscillating around a declining 100-day moving average while holding below the 200-day moving average near $3,660 and the 200-day EMA region around $3,336–$3,340. The market has repeatedly defended the $2,700 demand zone, with a deeper structural floor in the $2,100–$2,300 area, but every push toward $3,300–$3,400 encounters supply. One major setup is the large symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframe: ETH was rejected by the 100-day SMA near $3,300–$3,336, then slipped back inside the triangle, with immediate support now at the 50-day SMA near $3,080–$3,166. A rebound from around $3,080–$3,166 would allow another push through the upper trendline near $3,220–$3,300, then back to the 200-day SMA around $3,660 and the psychological $4,000 level. A clean breakout and sustained trade above that zone unlocks the bullish triangle objective around $4,500, roughly 40% above the current $3,200 area. The risk side is equally clear: a daily close below the 50-day band near $3,080, followed by failure at $3,050–$3,000, would shift the pattern toward the bearish triangle target around $1,850, meaning a potential halving from current levels if forced unwinds accelerate.

ETH-USD – 4-Hour Structure, Rising Channel And Value Area Signals

On the 4H chart ETH-USD still holds a constructive set of higher lows from the December drop, with a rounded accumulation base anchored in the $3,000 region. Price has been rotating between that $3,000 support and a $3,300–$3,400 resistance band. The last move into $3,400 printed a higher high on price but failed to confirm momentum, and the rejection from that level was impulsive, not slow. That rejection also occurred near the value area high (VAH) of the recent range, signalling distribution at premium prices rather than acceptance of higher value. Remaining below that VAH means the market is rotating back down toward lower value zones, with $3,080–$3,050–$3,000 acting as immediate checkpoints. As long as the rounded higher-low structure and the $3,000 region hold, the 4H configuration still favours another attempt at the $3,300–$3,400 supply band. A sustained break below $3,000–$3,050 converts the move into a deeper corrective leg, with the next magnet around $2,800 and then $2,760 where high time-frame support sits.

ETH-USD – Momentum: Dual RSI Divergences And Fading Thrust

Momentum on ETH-USD is clearly cooling. On the daily timeframe the RSI slipped from around 64 to about 52 over the last several sessions while price only backed off a few percent from the $3,390–$3,400 region, showing that upside thrust is fading faster than price. Two separate divergences stack on top of each other. First, between early December and mid-January, price struggled against the upper channel while RSI improved, a pattern of hidden bearish pressure: momentum tried to build, price refused to follow. Then, between early January and the mid-January spike near $3,390, price made a slightly higher high but RSI printed a lower high, the textbook bearish divergence that often precedes a local peak. Combined, those structures say the January high near $3,390–$3,400 is vulnerable to becoming a medium-term swing top unless buyers can push RSI back up and retake the upper channel line. On the intraday side MACD lines are converging and losing slope, echoing indecision. If daily RSI rolls decisively under 50 while price breaks $3,050–$3,000, downside momentum will not be theoretical any more; it will be active.

ETH-USD – On-Chain Usage: 2.89M Daily Transactions, 1.03M Active Addresses And 450K New Wallets

On-chain, ETH-USD looks much stronger than the chart alone suggests. On 16 January the network processed 2,885,524 transactions in a single day, the highest daily count on record. The 7-day moving average near 2.5 million is almost double the level from the same period in 2025, marking a sharp reversal from the prior downtrend that persisted into mid-December 2025. At the same time, average gas fees have collapsed to around $0.15, with some swap transactions costing as little as $0.04, the cheapest environment in modern Ethereum history. This spike in usage against a backdrop of low costs has driven daily active addresses to about 1.03 million on January 16, with total active addresses nearly doubling over the month toward 8 million. New address creation hit an all-time high of roughly 450,000 wallets on January 11, a 130% increase since the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025. That upgrade, along with the recent “BPO” hard fork, materially improved scalability and reduced transaction costs. The combination of exploding transaction counts, record new wallets and higher active-address retention over 30 days signals real organic growth rather than speculative noise. Price remains well below the previous cycle peak, so there is a clear bullish divergence between fundamentals and chart, with network usage already in a new expansion phase while ETH-USD is still battling the $3,400 lid.

ETH-USD – Institutional Demand: $479M Weekly ETF Inflows, $12.91B Net Since Launch, $20.42B AUM

Institutional flow into ETH-USD has turned decisively positive again. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $479 million of net inflows in the last week, the strongest weekly figure on record and the first clearly positive week since October 2025. Cumulative net inflows now total around $12.91 billion, with total assets under management near $20.42 billion. One flagship product, BlackRock’s ETHA, pulled in about $219 million in a single week, almost half of the total flows, while vehicles from other asset managers added to the momentum. Weekly trading volume across Ethereum ETFs reached about $7.74 billion, indicating that traditional finance desks are not just passively holding but actively repositioning around ETH-USD. Independent flow analysis shows that institutional buying is now outpacing new ETH supply issuance, which tightens effective float just as spot holders remain largely inactive on-chain. These flows signal long-only allocators re-entering via regulated wrappers, a structurally supportive force if it persists while price sits in the $3,000–$3,400 band.

ETH-USD – Derivatives Positioning: $3.36B Longs Versus $1.93B Shorts And A Liquidation Wall Below $3,050

Derivatives are where ETH-USD carries its most obvious risk. On one major exchange’s ETH-USDT perpetual market, notional long leverage over the next 30 days stands near $3.36 billion, while short exposure is closer to $1.93 billion. That skew means roughly 80–90% of directional leverage is leaning long. Liquidation heatmaps show the heaviest cluster of long liquidations sitting below $3,050. Above that band, liquidation pressure is manageable; below it, a large chunk of the $3.3 billion long stack becomes exposed. Structurally, $3,050 lines up with a key horizontal, the lower area of the recent short-term value range and just above the $3,017 daily support level referenced on some charts. A daily break below $3,050–$3,017 would not just be a technical breach; it would flip a switch on leveraged positions, potentially triggering a cascade that drags ETH-USD quickly toward $2,800 and then $2,760 as margin calls and forced selling hit in sequence. As long as ETH-USD stays above $3,050, leverage remains stretched but stable. Once that line goes, the sell-off can accelerate without any change in fundamentals.

ETH-USD – Holder Behaviour: NUPL At 0.30 And Spent Coins Down 74%

Despite elevated prices and obvious profit potential, longer-term ETH-USD holders are not rushing for the exit. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Ethereum, aggregating both short- and long-term holders, sits near 0.30, just shy of its highest monthly level. After a drop of more than 6% from the January peak near $3,390, NUPL eased only slightly from about 0.31 to 0.30, a decline of roughly 3%, which means most investors remain comfortably in unrealized profit. That configuration usually increases the incentive to take gains, especially when technical signals turn cautious. Yet spent-coins data tells a different story. The Spent Coins Age Band metric shows on-chain spending collapsing from around 318,000 ETH to about 84,300 ETH, roughly a 74% decline in actual coins moved since January 14. Fewer coins are changing hands despite price pressure, which indicates a lack of aggressive distribution: long-term holders appear content to sit through the pullback rather than accelerate it. The combination of high unrealized gains, low realized selling and a broadly calm spot base means the marginal seller in this phase is more likely to be a leveraged trader than a fundamental investor.

ETH-USD – Macro And BTC-USD Context Around $93,000 And Trade-War Risk

The latest leg down in ETH-USD did not happen in isolation. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rolled over from a near two-month high around $97,800, sliding to retest its 50-day EMA near $92,396 and flirting with the key $90,000 support zone. At the same time, macro headlines around an escalating EU–US trade conflict triggered a broad risk-off move: global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, saw over $800–$900 million in liquidations within 24 hours on some tallies. In that environment ETH-USD slipped from around $3,336–$3,390 back toward $3,200, with its own 50-day EMA at roughly $3,166 coming into play. If BTC-USD closes decisively below its 50-day EMA and then $90,000, the probability of a deeper cross-asset correction rises, and ETH-USD is unlikely to defy that gravity in the short term. Conversely, if BTC-USD regains the $95,000–$100,000 zone quickly, that would ease macro pressure and give Ethereum more freedom to respect $3,050–$3,080 and retry the $3,300–$3,400 band.

ETH-USD – Scenario Map From $1,850 To $4,500 With $3,050 As The Pivot

The map for ETH-USD is narrow on timing but wide on distance. On the upside, the bullish path requires three things in sequence: first, hold the $3,166–$3,080–$3,050–$3,000 cluster with daily closes above the 50-day EMA; second, reclaim the triangle’s upper trendline around $3,220–$3,300 and retake the 200-day EMA near $3,336–$3,340; third, break and hold above the January peak at $3,390, then push past $3,480 and $3,650–$3,660. Once that zone is absorbed, the psychological $4,000 level and the symmetrical triangle target near $4,500 come into view, implying about 40% upside from $3,200 and significantly more if ETF flows and on-chain metrics stay on their current trajectory. On the downside, the trigger is much simpler: a clean daily close below $3,166, then $3,080, then the $3,050–$3,000 band. That break would likely unleash leveraged liquidations, dragging price first to $2,800, then potentially $2,760, where high time-frame support and untapped demand converge. Failure at $2,800–$2,760 reopens the lower objectives of the bigger patterns, including the $1,850 bearish triangle target. Given how crowded long leverage is, once downside momentum gets going it can travel fast through those levels even if ETF flows and on-chain use remain positive.

ETH-USD – Final Stance: Structurally Bullish, Tactically Cautious, Overall A Buy With Better Entries On Dips

Pulling everything together, ETH-USD shows a rare mix: record on-chain usage with 2.89 million daily transactions, 1.03 million daily active addresses and 450,000 new wallets in a single day; spot ETFs absorbing about $479 million in a week and holding roughly $20.42 billion in assets; institutional buying outpacing new issuance; NUPL near 0.30 with spent coins down 74%; and yet a chart that is capped at $3,400, sitting under key moving averages and loaded with $3.36 billion in leveraged longs that become vulnerable below $3,050. That combination argues for a bullish long-term view but tactical caution around current levels. With this data, the verdict is clear: ETH-USD is a Buy, but the optimal strategy is to treat the $3,050–$3,000 band and especially the $2,800–$2,760 zone as the primary accumulation areas rather than chasing every bounce toward $3,400. As long as the network continues to hit record activity, ETFs keep attracting capital and the market defends the higher-timeframe supports above $2,800, the balance of probabilities favours eventual resolution toward $4,000–$4,500 rather than a full collapse to $1,850. The risk is real and sits exactly where the data points: loss of $3,050 for the short term and loss of $2,800 for the medium term.

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