Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Stalls Below $3K as On-Chain Records and Staking Boom Collide With ETF Outflows

Ethereum (ETH-USD) compressed below $3,000 into year-end

ETH-USD intraday structure around $2,970–$2,990

ETH-USD is trading roughly in the $2,940–$2,995 zone, with price hovering just under the psychological $3,000 line. Every push toward $3,000 meets supply, and every dip toward $2,950 attracts buyers, which is exactly how a mature range behaves. On the daily chart, Ethereum remains clearly below the 20, 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs, which are clustered between roughly $3,000 and $3,365. That pack of moving averages has been acting as a hard ceiling throughout December, repeatedly rejecting any recovery attempt and marking a dense band of overhead supply. Daily RSI sits in the mid to high 40s, a level that reflects equilibrium rather than collapse or breakout. Volatility has contracted, volume is lighter, and price keeps mean-reverting back toward the middle of the band, which is consistent with digestion of the prior selloff, not a fresh waterfall move.

Medium-term trend: from sharp ETH-USD breakdown to late-stage correction

The preceding move in ETH-USD was a brutal slide from above $4,500 down into the $2,800–$2,900 region. That phase was dominated by forced selling, liquidations and fast loss of levels. That dynamic has changed. The angle of decline has flattened, and the market has started to build a chain of higher lows above the late December trough near $2,850. That behavior is typical of a late-stage corrective phase rather than the middle of a crash. In Wyckoff terms, Ethereum looks like it has already passed the Selling Climax and Automatic Rally, spent an extended period in the choppy Phase B, and is now showing elements of Phase D, with the $2,800–$2,900 band acting as a Last Point of Support. For that bullish interpretation to be fully validated, ETH-USD needs to break convincingly above the compression band around $3,000, stretch toward roughly $3,500, and ultimately accept prices above $3,800–$4,000. If instead the market fails to defend $2,800–$2,850, the structure reverts back toward prolonged sideways drift or another leg lower.

ETH-USD trendlines and descending resistance still capping upside

On the four-hour and other short timeframes, ETH-USD trades under a clear descending resistance line. Each rebound into that line is sold, including a recent sharp spike that was quickly faded and pulled back into the same tight range near support. Trend-following tools like Supertrend or parabolic SAR flip rapidly around price, which is exactly what you expect in a choppy range rather than a trending breakout. As long as Ethereum stays beneath that downward sloping resistance and below the packed EMA zone from $3,000 to about $3,365, the default assumption is that rallies are counter-trend bounces. A meaningful shift requires a decisive reclaim of the $3,000–$3,050 area with follow-through toward $3,200 and a sustained push into the $3,365 region where the 200-day EMA currently sits. Only then can you say with conviction that sellers have lost control of the tape.

Derivatives, leverage and liquidation clusters around $3,000

Derivatives positioning around ETH-USD is heavy and finely balanced. Open interest in futures sits near $37 billion, but rather than trending higher or collapsing, it has flattened while price compresses. That signals rotation and hedging rather than a wave of new one-sided bets. Retail traders skew net long, while larger accounts stay more balanced. The liquidation map is where the risk is obvious. If ETH-USD were to rally by roughly ten percent from current levels, about $4.54 billion in short positions would be forced out. A similar magnitude drop would threaten roughly $4.05 billion in long liquidations. That symmetric leverage explains why price is coiling: both sides are crowded, and neither has yet triggered a full cascade. Until price steps decisively away from this cluster, moves inside roughly $2,850–$3,200 will tend to be fake breaks and range trades. Once one side finally loses and starts to liquidate, the follow-through is likely to be abrupt, not gradual.

Base-layer activity: record Ethereum throughput with negligible fees

While ETH-USD chops sideways below $3,000, the underlying network is showing the opposite of lethargy. Daily transactions recently exceeded about 2.23 million, the highest level in a decade, while fees remained under $0.01 with no meaningful congestion and stable finality. That combination—record transaction counts at negligible cost—confirms that the scaling work on Ethereum is translating into real usage. Activity is shifting back toward L1 for a meaningful subset of use cases because the base layer can now handle it efficiently. The important point for ETH-USD is that there is a widening disconnect between price, which has fallen from above $4,500 to around $2,900–$3,000, and usage, which is at cycle highs. For an asset whose value is tied to demand for blockspace and collateral, that divergence is structurally positive even if it does not immediately reflect in price.

Smart contracts, RWAs and builder activity backing the ETH-USD thesis

Developer behavior reinforces the idea that Ethereum’s fundamentals are strengthening while ETH-USD consolidates. In the fourth quarter of 2025, more than 8.7 million new smart contracts were deployed on the network, the highest quarterly figure on record and far above earlier periods. On-chain value linked to real-world assets is now around $19 billion, and that number has been trending higher. Taken together, these datapoints show that Ethereum remains the primary settlement and execution layer for tokenization, stablecoins and infrastructure, even in a period where price has been under pressure. For ETH-USD, that means underlying demand for gas and collateral is growing, which tightens the long-term investment case even as short-term charts look indecisive.

Staking queues, exchange balances and ETH-USD supply dynamics

Supply-side metrics have quietly shifted in favor of the bullish case for ETH-USD. Earlier in the cycle, netflows were consistently negative, with ETH moving onto exchanges, a pattern that usually implies intent to sell into strength. In recent weeks that picture has reversed. ETH is leaving exchanges at the fastest pace of this cycle, moving into self-custody and staking. Validator queue data confirm that shift in behavior. For the first time in roughly half a year, the entry queue for new validators surpassed the exit queue. At one point approximately 745,000 ETH were queued to be staked, versus around 360,000 ETH waiting to withdraw, and later snapshots show the entry queue climbing toward about 890,000 ETH. That imbalance indicates rising appetite to lock coins into validation and a tightening of the freely tradable float. Combined with reduced exchange balances, this is classic accumulation behavior, even if ETH-USD price has not yet broken out above $3,000.

ETF flows, US-based selling and why ETH-USD is still pinned under $3,000

The main counterweight to the bullish on-chain picture is capital flow through formal products and US channels. Ethereum ETFs continue to show net outflows on both daily and weekly windows, confirming that institutional participation via regulated wrappers is still a net seller of ETH-USD exposure rather than a buyer. There are also signs that US-based investors have been using stability to reduce risk, especially during year-end. At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has struggled to regain momentum during US sessions, and risk appetite across major assets is contained. Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that ETH-USD cannot yet sustain a drive through the $3,000–$3,200 resistance belt, even while on-chain metrics and builder activity strengthen in the background.

Large-holder behavior: BitMine as a reference case for ETH-USD accumulation

Behavior from major treasuries provides a clean check on how serious capital treats current levels in ETH-USD. A large crypto-focused firm recently disclosed that it purchased 44,463 ETH in a single week specifically to exploit year-end selling. That transaction lifted its Ethereum holdings to about 4.11 million ETH, valued around $2,948 per coin at the time and equal to roughly 3.4 percent of circulating supply. Including other crypto assets, cash and strategic positions, the firm now oversees about $13.2 billion, and it is the largest single Ethereum treasury in the market. Management explicitly linked the late-December pullback to thin holiday liquidity, automated trading systems and tax-loss selling, and chose to add, not trim. When an entity controlling more than three percent of supply is accumulating under $3,000, that is a strong signal that this region is viewed as a strategic buy zone rather than a place to exit ETH-USD.

Key ETH-USD levels into early 2026 and structural triggers

The tape has defined precise levels that matter for ETH-USD in the first stretch of 2026. On the downside, $2,900 is the first support that traders are defending. A failure there brings the late-December low near $2,850 back into play. A clean break and weekly close below that pivot opens up the broader $2,700–$2,750 demand band. A sustained weekly close under $2,700 would effectively invalidate the current accumulation framework and force a reassessment. On the upside, $3,000–$3,050 is the first gate. A daily close back above that pocket, together with a reclaim of the 20-day EMA, would be the initial sign that buyers are regaining control. From there, $3,200 becomes the next target, followed by the 200-day EMA around $3,365. A break and acceptance above $3,365 would confirm a transition from corrective chop to advancing trend. If that happens, the next logical objectives are around $3,500, and then the $3,800–$4,000 zone that would complete the current Wyckoff-style structure and reopen the path toward the prior highs above $4,500.

Final stance on ETH-USD: positioning as a Buy with defined risk

Bringing all the data together, the structural picture for ETH-USD is bullish while the short-term tape remains undecided. On-chain usage, record transaction counts, contract deployment, real-world asset tokenization, shrinking exchange balances and swelling staking queues argue that Ethereum’s fundamentals are strengthening beneath the surface. Large holders are accumulating below $3,000, not distributing. At the same time, the token trades under descending resistance and below an EMA wall, with leveraged derivatives balanced around $3,000 and ETF flows still negative. Based on this configuration, ETH-USD is best treated as a Buy on a twelve to twenty-four month horizon, with the $2,900–$3,000 area functioning as an accumulation band and tolerance for downside extension toward $2,700. A weekly close below $2,700 would shift the stance toward Hold or reduction. On the upside, a sequence of confirmed breaks through $3,050, then $3,200, then $3,365, opens a realistic path toward $3,500–$4,000 as the next structural targets for ETH-USD.

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