Ethereum Price Sinks Under $1,800 as On-Chain Metrics Flash Buy Signal
With ETH at $1,790 and Fidelity’s undervaluation indicators in play, could this level mark the launchpad for a bullish upside | That's TradingNEWS
Ethereum Price (ETH-USD) Navigates Undervaluation and On-Chain Strength
Fidelity Signals Hint at a Discounted Entry for ETH
Fidelity Digital Assets’ latest Signals Report casts a spotlight on Ethereum’s quarter-end slump, where ETH-USD tumbled 45 percent in Q1 from its January peak of $3,579 to around $1,965 by quarter close. Despite this sharp drawdown, on-chain metrics point to capitulation and possible value zones. The MVRV Z-Score fell to –0.18 on March 9, dipping into territory that has historically marked market lows. At the same time, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio hit zero, signaling a balance between unrealized gains and losses among holders—classic signs of washout and base formation. With the realized price averaging $2,020, current trading near $1,816 represents a 10 percent discount to the cost basis of existing investors, suggesting longer-term holders may be absorbing sell pressure while short-term speculators exit.
Layer-2 Adoption Surges to Record Highs
Ethereum’s scaling narrative gathered fresh momentum as layer-2 active addresses climbed to an all-time high of 13.6 million, up 74 percent in the past week according to growthepie.xyz. Unichain led adoption with 5.82 million weekly active addresses, eclipsing Base and Arbitrum as developers and users flock to lower fees and faster finality. Layer-2 dominance rose 58.7 percent over seven days, underscoring that on-chain activity and decentralized application usage continue to expand even amid price weakness. Such engagement bodes well for future fee burn and total value locked, reinforcing Ethereum’s network effect.
Technical Landscape Reflects Battle Between Bulls and Bears
On the hourly chart ETH-USD encounters stiff resistance at the $1,810–$1,820 zone, the apex of a contracting triangle anchored by last session’s high at $1,842. A decisive breakout above $1,850 would clear the 100-hour SMA and open a path to $1,920 and potentially $2,000, where value-area selling on the volume profile lies. Conversely, failure to reclaim $1,780 support risks a slide toward $1,750, then the 61.8 percent Fib retracement of the March advance at $1,745. The MACD histogram has turned positive on the hourly timeframe, yet the RSI at 56 sits just above neutral, warning that momentum remains fragile until ETH pushes convincingly above its Ichimoku cloud at $1,828—a barrier it last held in December 2024.
DMI and ADX Point to Waning Trend Strength
Ethereum’s Average Directional Index has plunged from 39 to below 25 in three days, signaling a rapid loss of directional conviction. The +DI indicator has fallen to 22.7 from 31.7, while –DI has climbed toward 17.7, indicating sellers are narrowing the gap. Historically, ADX readings under 20 herald range-bound conditions. The confluence of a weakening trend and mounting bearish pressure suggests ETH may consolidate in a tighter range until fresh catalysts emerge—be they macroeconomic data, Ethereum network upgrades, or renewed ETF inflows.
Macro and Sentiment Drivers Underpin Mixed Outlook
Quarter-to-date, Ethereum ETFs have attracted $104 million in net inflows, reflecting growing institutional comfort with the asset. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index vaulted from 15 to 53 in two weeks, shifting sentiment from extreme fear to neutral. Meanwhile, U.S. rate-cut expectations, now implying over 50 percent odds of Fed easing by year-end, cap the U.S. dollar’s upside and indirectly support non-yielding crypto assets. However, geopolitical headwinds and regulatory uncertainty continue to inject caution into the marketplace.
Strategic Assessment: Bullish on On-Chain Fundamentals, Cautious on Technicals
The amalgamation of Fidelity’s undervaluation signals, record layer-2 usage, and moderate ETF inflows constructs a compelling fundamental case that Ethereum’s persistent price weakness may offer a premium buying window. Yet the technical congestion between $1,780 and $1,850 demands respect—only a clear breach of these levels will resolve the current tug-of-war. For disciplined investors, accumulation in the $1,700–$1,780 band aligns with on-chain support and realized price floors, while a sustained move above $1,850 could mark the resumption of broader up-trends.
Given the data synthesis, Ethereum’s risk-reward profile skews** bullish** over the medium term, contingent upon navigational success through the immediate resistance cluster and supportive macro conditions.
