XRP Price Forecast: Whale Buys, ETF Risks, And Why $2.18 May Be Just the Beginning

Whale Confidence, Bearish Momentum, And ETF Uncertainty Shape The Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Landscape

Institutional Whales Signal Confidence With $1.33 Billion XRP Accumulation

Over the past ten days, addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have absorbed more than 610 million XRP, translating to over $1.33 billion in value. This concentrated accumulation by large wallets offers a compelling signal of long-term bullish conviction, even as retail investor sentiment remains shaky. Whale activity has historically served as a precursor to major trend reversals. Their positioning now, amid stalled price action, suggests foundational confidence in XRP-USD’s future value proposition.

ETF Delay and Regulatory Ambiguity Cloud Near-Term Sentiment

The SEC's postponement of XRP ETF approvals—including Franklin Templeton’s proposed vehicle—has hampered bullish sentiment. Ripple’s legal saga continues to inject uncertainty into institutional demand. Wanchain CEO Temujin Louie noted that XRP's classification as a speculative asset, even compared to Bitcoin or Ethereum, makes ETF approval politically risky. Combined with geopolitical volatility and regulatory unpredictability under the Trump administration, this has tempered short-term investor enthusiasm.

XRP Price Action Trapped In Downtrend Channel, Technicals Flash Mixed Signals

Currently trading near $2.18, XRP-USD has struggled to retake the $2.23 resistance, with support tenuously holding around $2.13. Despite multiple intraday rallies, sellers continue to dominate above the $2.20 level. On the 4-hour chart, XRP remains pinned below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs, highlighting technical pressure. The MACD histogram, though showing early bullish divergence with higher highs, remains below zero—hinting at momentum decoupled from price.

A break below $2.00 would expose downside targets at $1.90, $1.80, and $1.61, all tested during past selloffs triggered by macro events and policy shocks. Conversely, a breach above $2.30 could spark a rapid move to $2.65, last seen in mid-June.

Derivatives Show High Conviction But Bearish Lean Continues

XRP’s futures Open Interest (OI) surged to $4.19 billion, up from $3.54B on June 23, signaling growing speculative participation. Daily trading volumes in the derivatives market approached $3 billion, with nearly equal liquidations on both sides—$1.52M in longs, $1.53M in shorts—underscoring market indecision.

Still, SuperTrend indicators on the daily chart remain bearish since May 31, and the RSI has drifted toward oversold conditions. The 200-day EMA near $2.10 offers short-term support, but a break lower would likely accelerate losses. A 7.4% relief rally from current levels could target $2.33, while a 22% upside move would require clearing the mid-June peak of $2.65.

Geopolitical Risks and Lawsuit Pause Fuel Volatility

In June, Ripple experienced heightened volatility tied to international conflict and legal ambiguity. The SEC’s 60-day pause in appeals, combined with U.S. military action in Iran, drove XRP to a low of $1.94. A ceasefire and Ripple's decision to drop its cross-appeal led to a 12% recovery later in the month. If the SEC reciprocates, the legal overhang could finally clear, significantly improving ETF approval odds. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, emphasized that the ETF path could accelerate if legal resolution is finalized soon.

Macro Conditions Complicate Recovery, Despite Historical July Strength

XRP’s median July return of 6.91% could, if replicated, push the token above the $2.23 resistance, possibly to $2.32. However, macro headwinds—tightened monetary policy, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and lingering inflation—remain obstacles. The broader crypto market has stalled in sympathy, suppressing momentum despite XRP-related product inflows of $10.6 million last week and $219M YTD, per CoinShares.

Ripple–Wormhole Partnership Drives XRPL Interoperability Vision

Ripple’s integration with Wormhole expands the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) multi-chain interoperability. Wormhole's infrastructure—already supporting 35+ blockchains and 200+ apps—will facilitate seamless transfers of XRP, IOUs, and MPTs, and allow messaging between smart contracts across ecosystems. Ripple CTO David Schwartz underscored the importance of cross-chain compatibility in enabling mass adoption. As demand for stablecoins and tokenized assets surges, XRPL’s evolving architecture could reinforce XRP’s role in global finance.

On-Chain and Holder Data Reveals Institutional Gravity

Over 70% of XRP’s circulating supply sits within the top 100 wallets—demonstrating growing institutional concentration. These addresses act as long-term anchors, reducing float volatility and shaping price stability. XRP’s market cap currently sits at $138 billion, positioning it among the top three crypto assets globally. The rising dominance of whale wallets has coincided with reduced panic selling during recent dips, reflecting institutional discipline.

Long-Term Forecasts Stretch From $5.81 to $26.50 by 2030

Assuming ETF approval and Ripple's global expansion continue, XRP could reach a base target of $5.81 by 2025. Medium-term scenarios estimate $8.50 by 2026 and up to $26.50 by 2030, assuming adoption across banking, cross-border payments, and tokenized asset platforms. Under aggressive assumptions, one analyst—"Future XRP"—projects XRP could surge to $3,380, extrapolating from a 1,538x increase in transaction volume to as high as $2 quadrillion annually. However, AI model Grok 3 suggests more reasonable targets of $200–$1,000, discounting unrealistic velocity assumptions and capital constraints.

XRP Remains Volatile, But Bullish Catalysts Are Emerging

The short-term technical setup for XRP-USD remains fragile, but institutional inflows, high open interest, whale accumulation, and interoperability partnerships provide medium-term bullish signals. If legal clarity is achieved and macro conditions stabilize, XRP could reclaim its all-time high of $3.84 and test $5+ by year-end.

XRP-USD is a Hold, with bullish skew. Sub-$2 entries remain attractive for high-conviction long-term positions. Near-term catalysts—particularly regulatory clarity and ETF approval—could transform the technical landscape and ignite a breakout past $2.65 toward $3.40 and beyond.

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