EUR/USD Price Forecast - EUR Holds 1.16 as Fed Data Risk Puts 1.1550–1.1400 Zone on the Radar

EUR/USD Price At 1.16 Pivot As Bears Test 1.1550 While Banks Project 1.10–1.22 Range

Short-Term Price Action In EUR/USD: From 1.1750 Failures To 1.1618 Lows

EUR/USD has shifted from a grind higher toward 1.1750–1.1800 into a controlled bleed lower that is now testing the 1.16 handle. After printing a five-week low near 1.1618, the pair managed a rebound toward roughly 1.1698, but every move above 1.1660–1.1700 is being sold. The spot rate is oscillating around 1.1640–1.1650, clearly below the 1.1700 pivot that capped multiple rallies earlier in January.
On the daily chart, price sits under the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 100-day near 1.1660 turning from support into resistance. A weekly close below 1.1600 confirms that the market no longer treats that level as a floor but as a ceiling on rebounds. The message is simple: below 1.1600, sellers control the tape until the market either flushes into the deeper support band at 1.1550–1.1480 or a macro shock knocks the dollar back.

ECB–Fed Divergence: Weak Euro Data Versus Resilient US Numbers

Recent Eurozone data justify the market’s reluctance to pay higher prices for the euro. Growth is slowing, inflation is moderating, and demand indicators do not force the ECB into fresh tightening. That is why traders talk about a “hold phase”: policy is not being eased aggressively, but there is no credible path to higher rates while GDP momentum fades and inflation retreats toward target.
On the US side, stronger-than-expected macro numbers keep the USD structurally supported. Weekly US jobless claims around 198,000 versus expectations near 215,000, firm consumption, and broadly decent activity data have undercut near-term rate-cut hopes. The market pushed back expectations of the first Fed cut, leaving US real yields elevated. That yield premium over the euro area is a direct headwind for EUR/USD every time the pair tries to reclaim 1.1700–1.1750.

Upcoming Data And Event Risk For EUR/USD: GDP, PCE, PMIs And PPI

The next leg for EUR/USD hinges on a dense macro calendar on both sides of the Atlantic. In the euro area, flash PMI surveys for German manufacturing and services will tell the market whether the soft patch is becoming a deeper slowdown. If German manufacturing drops further or service activity slips closer to contraction, growth fears will push the euro lower and make a clean test of 1.1550 more likely.
Eurozone CPI, especially core inflation, remains crucial. A print well below expectations would reinforce the idea that the ECB can sit on its hands or even shift toward cuts later in 2026, removing any residual rate-support for the euro.
For the US, three pieces matter for EUR/USD right now:
– Advanced GDP: If growth tracks firmly above trend, the dollar’s growth premium stays intact and supports more downside in EUR/USD.
– Core PCE inflation: the Fed’s preferred gauge. A reading comfortably above the 2% target range keeps “higher for longer” alive; a downside surprise reopens the door to earlier cuts and would help the euro push back toward 1.1700–1.1750.
– PPI and Retail Sales around 13:30 London time in the signals piece: any upside surprise in producer prices or spending bolsters the dollar and keeps EUR/USD pinned closer to 1.1600 or below into New York trade.

Technical Landscape: 1.1580–1.1550 Support Versus 1.1700–1.1800 Resistance

From a pure chart standpoint, EUR/USD is in a controlled downtrend, not a crash. Price has slipped under a key horizontal area just below 1.1600, with immediate support now mapped between 1.1580 and 1.1550. A daily close below 1.1550 opens the path toward the 200-day moving average near 1.1400, which is the big downside magnet flagged in several technical roadmaps.
On the topside, the market is watching a band between 1.1700 and 1.1800. The 100-day MA sits around 1.1660, and above that sellers cluster near 1.1700, then 1.1730–1.1770, and finally 1.1800 as psychological resistance. These levels also align with intraday sell zones highlighted around 1.1654, 1.1676, and 1.1701 where short setups have been structured with tight stops just above the local swing highs.
Momentum metrics confirm the bias. The daily RSI sits below 40, which signals bearish momentum but not yet an oversold condition. That leaves room for further downside toward 1.1550–1.1480 without requiring an immediate mean-reversion bounce. Only a decisive reclaim of 1.1700–1.1750 with RSI pushing back above 50 would argue that bears are losing control.

Intraday Trading Bands: Signal Levels Around 1.17 And 1.16

Short-term strategies built around EUR/USD are clustering at clearly defined levels. On the sell side, traders have been looking to fade bounces into 1.1654, 1.1676, 1.1701, 1.1700, 1.1730, and 1.1770, often with stops roughly a pip above the prior swing high and first profit targets around 20 pips, before running the remainder toward 1.1580–1.1550.
On the buy side, dip-buyers are probing support between 1.1623, 1.1618, 1.1580, and 1.1551 with tight invalidation just below recent lows and modest upside targets into 1.1750–1.1800. That structure tells you the market sees 1.1580–1.1550 as short-term value for tactical longs, while 1.1700–1.1770 remains the key supply zone where larger players are willing to re-enter shorts as long as US data and Fed pricing support the dollar.

Neutral Zone And Attempted Base: 1.1685–1.1750 As Reversal Gateway For EUR/USD

Some desks frame the current tape as EUR/USD attempting to rebuild a base inside a “neutral zone” between 1.1685 and 1.1750. The logic is that if the pair can stabilize above 1.1685 and sustain closes toward 1.1750, the market would start to treat 1.1800 as a realistic target again, potentially validating a trend shift from bearish back to bullish.
To get there, the pair first needs to reclaim the cluster around 1.1645–1.1698 that has capped rebounds since the latest bout of US inflation data. The daily RSI near 42 and the MACD lines starting to curl higher from depressed levels hint that a corrective bounce is possible, but without a real catalyst—such as softer US inflation or a surprise hawkish hint from the ECB—those signals may remain noise within a broader downtrend.

US Dollar Narrative: Rate Cuts Delayed, Powell Under Pressure, Trump Noise In The Background

The USD leg of EUR/USD is shaped by more than just data prints. Political and institutional narratives are feeding into positioning. Accusations leveled at the Fed Chair and public pressure from the US president for lower interest rates create headline volatility, but so far they have not changed the core trajectory: markets still see the Fed as reluctant to cut aggressively while growth and labor data remain firm.
Producer prices (PPI) and Retail Sales around 13:30 London are the next immediate risk points. A hotter-than-expected PPI or strong retail numbers will harden the view that rate cuts will come later and in smaller size, reinforcing dollar strength. That would validate further pressure on EUR/USD toward 1.1580–1.1550. Conversely, a downside surprise in both PPI and sales would soften the dollar and likely push the pair back through 1.1660 toward the 1.17 handle.

Medium-Term Bank Projections: 1.10 Bear Case Versus 1.22 Bull Case

Positioning beyond the next week is split. One major European house projects EUR/USD drifting to around 1.14 by mid-year and sliding toward 1.10 by the end of 2026, effectively pricing a persistent euro discount driven by geopolitical risk, weaker Eurozone confidence, and a cautious ECB. In that framework, rallies toward 1.18–1.20 are selling opportunities and the market ultimately gravitates closer to 1.10 as global risk stays messy.
On the other side, another top-tier bank sees the pair eventually breaking above 1.20 and finishing 2026 around 1.22, arguing that much of the past ~10% dollar decline came from hedging flows rather than outright selling of US assets and that further Fed cuts—roughly another 50 bps—combined with fiscal support in Europe, particularly from German stimulus, will gradually tilt the balance back toward the euro.
These scenarios define a wide corridor: 1.10 on the downside, 1.22 on the upside. The current spot around 1.16 sits roughly in the lower half of that projected range, which means medium-term bears still see room lower, while structural bulls view current levels as a potential accumulation zone—but only if policy and growth data start aligning with their thesis.

Geopolitics, Energy And Positioning: Structural Headwinds For The Euro

Geopolitics is not a side show for EUR/USD. The extension of the war in Ukraine, the interaction with policy moves in Venezuela, and broader tariff threats out of Washington all feed into Eurozone risk premia. If US actions abroad relieve pressure on Russia’s leadership and prolong the conflict, Eurozone business and consumer confidence remain under pressure, and the region’s ability to benefit from cheaper Venezuelan oil exports stays limited. That undercuts the euro’s appeal relative to the dollar, especially when energy risk is already embedded in European inflation and trade balances.
Positioning data also matter. The euro remains one of the largest long currencies within the G10 complex based on some positioning models. That means there is still fuel for liquidation if the macro story tilts further against Europe—another argument supporting the case for EUR/USD retesting 1.14 and potentially 1.10 if US data stay firm and the ECB remains cautious.

Risk–Reward View: Is EUR/USD A Buy, Sell Or Hold Here?

Pulling all of this together, the tape tells a clear short-term story. EUR/USD is trading below 1.1600, failing repeatedly near 1.1660–1.1700, with momentum indicators like RSI stuck under 40 and a clear support staircase at 1.1580, 1.1550, 1.1480, and 1.1400. Macro divergence favors the USD for now, with US data outperforming and rate-cut expectations pushed further out, while the Eurozone faces slowing growth and subdued inflation.
Against that backdrop, the pair does not justify an outright bullish stance at current levels. At the same time, the presence of well-defined support in the 1.1580–1.1550 zone and the possibility of softer US inflation or weaker US data argue against an aggressive chase lower at any price.
Given the current price around the mid-1.16s, the rational stance is tactically bearish but structurally neutral:
– Short-term, EUR/USD is effectively a SELL on rallies into 1.1660–1.1750, with downside targets at 1.1550 and then 1.1400 if US data continue to surprise on the upside and the Fed stays firm.
– Medium-term, between the 1.10 bear projections and 1.22 bull projections, the pair is a HOLD for investors already positioned, waiting for the data and central banks to break the stalemate. New longs are not justified until EUR/USD decisively reclaims and holds above 1.1750–1.1800.
Bottom line: with spot below 1.1600, macro and technicals lean bearish, so the best trade expression is sell strength rather than buy dips, with close attention to the 1.1550 floor and the upcoming GDP, PCE, PMI, PPI, and Retail Sales prints that will decide whether EUR/USD accelerates toward 1.1400 or snaps back toward 1.18.

Upcoming Data And Event Risk For EUR/USD: GDP, PCE, PMIs And PPI

The next leg for EUR/USD hinges on a dense macro calendar on both sides of the Atlantic. In the euro area, flash PMI surveys for German manufacturing and services will tell the market whether the soft patch is becoming a deeper slowdown. If German manufacturing drops further or service activity slips closer to contraction, growth fears will push the euro lower and make a clean test of 1.1550 more likely.
Eurozone CPI, especially core inflation, remains crucial. A print well below expectations would reinforce the idea that the ECB can sit on its hands or even shift toward cuts later in 2026, removing any residual rate-support for the euro.
For the US, three pieces matter for EUR/USD right now:
– Advanced GDP: If growth tracks firmly above trend, the dollar’s growth premium stays intact and supports more downside in EUR/USD.
– Core PCE inflation: the Fed’s preferred gauge. A reading comfortably above the 2% target range keeps “higher for longer” alive; a downside surprise reopens the door to earlier cuts and would help the euro push back toward 1.1700–1.1750.
– PPI and Retail Sales around 13:30 London time in the signals piece: any upside surprise in producer prices or spending bolsters the dollar and keeps EUR/USD pinned closer to 1.1600 or below into New York trade.

Technical Landscape: 1.1580–1.1550 Support Versus 1.1700–1.1800 Resistance

From a pure chart standpoint, EUR/USD is in a controlled downtrend, not a crash. Price has slipped under a key horizontal area just below 1.1600, with immediate support now mapped between 1.1580 and 1.1550. A daily close below 1.1550 opens the path toward the 200-day moving average near 1.1400, which is the big downside magnet flagged in several technical roadmaps.
On the topside, the market is watching a band between 1.1700 and 1.1800. The 100-day MA sits around 1.1660, and above that sellers cluster near 1.1700, then 1.1730–1.1770, and finally 1.1800 as psychological resistance. These levels also align with intraday sell zones highlighted around 1.1654, 1.1676, and 1.1701 where short setups have been structured with tight stops just above the local swing highs.
Momentum metrics confirm the bias. The daily RSI sits below 40, which signals bearish momentum but not yet an oversold condition. That leaves room for further downside toward 1.1550–1.1480 without requiring an immediate mean-reversion bounce. Only a decisive reclaim of 1.1700–1.1750 with RSI pushing back above 50 would argue that bears are losing control.

Intraday Trading Bands: Signal Levels Around 1.17 And 1.16

Short-term strategies built around EUR/USD are clustering at clearly defined levels. On the sell side, traders have been looking to fade bounces into 1.1654, 1.1676, 1.1701, 1.1700, 1.1730, and 1.1770, often with stops roughly a pip above the prior swing high and first profit targets around 20 pips, before running the remainder toward 1.1580–1.1550.
On the buy side, dip-buyers are probing support between 1.1623, 1.1618, 1.1580, and 1.1551 with tight invalidation just below recent lows and modest upside targets into 1.1750–1.1800. That structure tells you the market sees 1.1580–1.1550 as short-term value for tactical longs, while 1.1700–1.1770 remains the key supply zone where larger players are willing to re-enter shorts as long as US data and Fed pricing support the dollar.

Neutral Zone And Attempted Base: 1.1685–1.1750 As Reversal Gateway For EUR/USD

Some desks frame the current tape as EUR/USD attempting to rebuild a base inside a “neutral zone” between 1.1685 and 1.1750. The logic is that if the pair can stabilize above 1.1685 and sustain closes toward 1.1750, the market would start to treat 1.1800 as a realistic target again, potentially validating a trend shift from bearish back to bullish.
To get there, the pair first needs to reclaim the cluster around 1.1645–1.1698 that has capped rebounds since the latest bout of US inflation data. The daily RSI near 42 and the MACD lines starting to curl higher from depressed levels hint that a corrective bounce is possible, but without a real catalyst—such as softer US inflation or a surprise hawkish hint from the ECB—those signals may remain noise within a broader downtrend.

US Dollar Narrative: Rate Cuts Delayed, Powell Under Pressure, Trump Noise In The Background

The USD leg of EUR/USD is shaped by more than just data prints. Political and institutional narratives are feeding into positioning. Accusations leveled at the Fed Chair and public pressure from the US president for lower interest rates create headline volatility, but so far they have not changed the core trajectory: markets still see the Fed as reluctant to cut aggressively while growth and labor data remain firm.
Producer prices (PPI) and Retail Sales around 13:30 London are the next immediate risk points. A hotter-than-expected PPI or strong retail numbers will harden the view that rate cuts will come later and in smaller size, reinforcing dollar strength. That would validate further pressure on EUR/USD toward 1.1580–1.1550. Conversely, a downside surprise in both PPI and sales would soften the dollar and likely push the pair back through 1.1660 toward the 1.17 handle.

Medium-Term Bank Projections: 1.10 Bear Case Versus 1.22 Bull Case

Positioning beyond the next week is split. One major European house projects EUR/USD drifting to around 1.14 by mid-year and sliding toward 1.10 by the end of 2026, effectively pricing a persistent euro discount driven by geopolitical risk, weaker Eurozone confidence, and a cautious ECB. In that framework, rallies toward 1.18–1.20 are selling opportunities and the market ultimately gravitates closer to 1.10 as global risk stays messy.
On the other side, another top-tier bank sees the pair eventually breaking above 1.20 and finishing 2026 around 1.22, arguing that much of the past ~10% dollar decline came from hedging flows rather than outright selling of US assets and that further Fed cuts—roughly another 50 bps—combined with fiscal support in Europe, particularly from German stimulus, will gradually tilt the balance back toward the euro.
These scenarios define a wide corridor: 1.10 on the downside, 1.22 on the upside. The current spot around 1.16 sits roughly in the lower half of that projected range, which means medium-term bears still see room lower, while structural bulls view current levels as a potential accumulation zone—but only if policy and growth data start aligning with their thesis.

Geopolitics, Energy And Positioning: Structural Headwinds For The Euro

Geopolitics is not a side show for EUR/USD. The extension of the war in Ukraine, the interaction with policy moves in Venezuela, and broader tariff threats out of Washington all feed into Eurozone risk premia. If US actions abroad relieve pressure on Russia’s leadership and prolong the conflict, Eurozone business and consumer confidence remain under pressure, and the region’s ability to benefit from cheaper Venezuelan oil exports stays limited. That undercuts the euro’s appeal relative to the dollar, especially when energy risk is already embedded in European inflation and trade balances.
Positioning data also matter. The euro remains one of the largest long currencies within the G10 complex based on some positioning models. That means there is still fuel for liquidation if the macro story tilts further against Europe—another argument supporting the case for EUR/USD retesting 1.14 and potentially 1.10 if US data stay firm and the ECB remains cautious.

Risk–Reward View: Is EUR/USD A Buy, Sell Or Hold Here?

Pulling all of this together, the tape tells a clear short-term story. EUR/USD is trading below 1.1600, failing repeatedly near 1.1660–1.1700, with momentum indicators like RSI stuck under 40 and a clear support staircase at 1.1580, 1.1550, 1.1480, and 1.1400. Macro divergence favors the USD for now, with US data outperforming and rate-cut expectations pushed further out, while the Eurozone faces slowing growth and subdued inflation.
Against that backdrop, the pair does not justify an outright bullish stance at current levels. At the same time, the presence of well-defined support in the 1.1580–1.1550 zone and the possibility of softer US inflation or weaker US data argue against an aggressive chase lower at any price.
Given the current price around the mid-1.16s, the rational stance is tactically bearish but structurally neutral:
– Short-term, EUR/USD is effectively a SELL on rallies into 1.1660–1.1750, with downside targets at 1.1550 and then 1.1400 if US data continue to surprise on the upside and the Fed stays firm.
– Medium-term, between the 1.10 bear projections and 1.22 bull projections, the pair is a HOLD for investors already positioned, waiting for the data and central banks to break the stalemate. New longs are not justified until EUR/USD decisively reclaims and holds above 1.1750–1.1800.
Bottom line: with spot below 1.1600, macro and technicals lean bearish, so the best trade expression is sell strength rather than buy dips, with close attention to the 1.1550 floor and the upcoming GDP, PCE, PMI, PPI, and Retail Sales prints that will decide whether EUR/USD accelerates toward 1.1400 or snaps back toward 1.18.

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