EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Holds Below 1.1850 as Dollar Firms and Fed Risk Builds

EUR/USD – Pair slips under 1.1850 as the dollar firms and key support at 1.1830–1.1835 comes into play

EUR/USD – Where the pair is trading now and what the tape is telling you

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1840, extending a two-day slide and holding below the 1.1850 area that had been acting as a short-term cap. Intraday ranges cluster between roughly 1.1830 and 1.1860, but the character of the move is clearly defensive: candles are closing near their lows, with a sequence of lower highs on the intraday charts and the spot rate sitting under the fast averages. On the daily time frame, the pair is still above a rising 50-day EMA near 1.1773, but the shorter nine-day EMA sits just overhead around 1.1856 and has flattened out, which is exactly what you expect when a mini-uptrend runs out of momentum. The market is effectively pressing from the underside of 1.1850–1.1860 while probing support in the 1.1830–1.1835 zone.

EUR/USD – Daily and 4H structure: EMAs, ranges and the 1.1765–1.2000 box

From a structure perspective, EUR/USD is trading inside a medium-term range roughly between 1.1765 and 1.2000, with 1.1835 as a key internal support and 1.1850–1.1890 as the immediate resistance band. On the daily chart, price holds above the rising 50-day EMA at 1.1773, which has been the backbone of the advance off the January low at 1.1578. The nine-day EMA at 1.1856 is now almost flat and sits just above spot, so a close back over 1.1860–1.1870 would be needed to confirm that bulls can regain short-term control. On the four-hour chart, the pair has already slipped under a prior horizontal support around 1.1830 and is leaning on an ascending trend line that originates from late January. The 50-EMA on this time frame is overhead, while the 200-EMA sits close to 1.1765, exactly where the lower edge of the wider range comes in. That alignment makes 1.1765 the obvious “line in the sand” for the current bullish structure: as long as EUR/USD trades above 1.1765 the broader consolidation remains intact, but a decisive break below it opens up 1.1670–1.1672 and then the January low at 1.1578.

EUR/USD – Momentum signals: RSI, oscillators and volatility across time frames

On the momentum side, the 14-day RSI hovering near 53 tells you the daily trend is not yet exhausted on the downside but is shifting from neutral to soft. There is a modest positive bias left in the indicator, but it is no longer a clean bullish signal. On the intraday charts, the picture is more clearly negative: the Stochastic oscillator has dipped into oversold territory while MACD readings remain below zero, which is classic “controlled sell-off” behaviour where the market allows small rebounds but keeps printing lower highs. On the one-hour time frame, EUR/USD is trading near the lower band of the Bollinger envelope, with the mid-band acting as dynamic resistance and capping recovery attempts around 1.1860–1.1870. Volatility is contained rather than explosive, so the pair is sliding rather than crashing, but the momentum configuration is still skewed in favour of sellers while oscillators stay below midlines and moving averages continue to slope down on the lower time frames.

EUR/USD – Dollar index, Fed expectations and why the macro tape favours the USD for now

The macro driver behind this move is straightforward: the US dollar has stopped falling and is starting to coil for a potential break higher. The Dollar Index is pinned around 97.2–97.4, trading inside a tightening triangle between a descending trend line and a rising base. Near term, the index is holding above 96.83–96.34 support while struggling to clear the 50-EMA around 97.60 and the 200-EMA near 97.98. A break over 97.98 would open room toward the 99.7–99.8 area, and that kind of dollar extension would almost certainly push EUR/USD deeper into the lower half of its range. Under the surface, rate expectations explain why the greenback has stabilised. Markets still price around 60–70 basis points of Federal Reserve easing by the end of 2026, equivalent to two 25-bp cuts and a roughly 50% probability of a third move, but the path to those cuts is no longer straight. Recent inflation readings have softened enough to justify future easing, yet a very strong labour market report – with employment growth at its highest in over a year and unemployment unexpectedly ticking down – has reminded traders that the US economy is more resilient than most of its developed peers. That mix keeps the Fed “higher for longer” narrative alive and prevents USD from selling off aggressively.

This week’s calendar amplifies that dynamic. Traders are bracing for the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes, a preliminary GDP print and the PCE core inflation index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge. Any upside surprise in PCE or any hint in the minutes that policymakers are not in a hurry to cut will feed directly into stronger USD and more pressure on EUR/USD. Until those releases are out of the way, the bias is to respect the dollar and fade the euro on rallies rather than fight the macro tape.

EUR/USD – Euro’s relative performance versus majors points to underlying softness

The cross-asset currency board confirms that EUR is not just weak against the dollar; it is underperforming broadly. On the day, EUR is down about 0.08% versus USD, off roughly 0.04% versus CAD and 0.05% versus AUD, while it is losing around 0.51% against JPY, making the yen the day’s standout winner versus the single currency. Against GBP, EUR is lower by roughly 0.05% as well. This pattern – euro under pressure versus nearly all majors, and particularly heavy against the traditional safe-haven JPY – is consistent with a risk-off or risk-cautious environment where capital rotates into the dollar and yen while trimming exposure to higher-beta assets. For EUR/USD, this backdrop means that even if the pair finds temporary support around 1.1830–1.1835, the recovery potential is capped until the euro starts to outperform more clearly on the heat map. At the moment, that is not happening.

EUR/USD – Critical price zones: supports, resistances and what breaks matter most

From a levels standpoint, the market has drawn clear battle lines. On the downside, the first important shelf is 1.1835, an intermediate support inside the wider 1.1765–1.2000 box. Price is already probing just below 1.1835 on some intraday snapshots around 1.1830, meaning the market is actively testing this floor. If EUR/USD holds above 1.1835 and rebounds, sideways trade with choppy upside attempts back toward the middle of the range is still viable. A sustained break below 1.1835 opens the path to 1.1810–1.1800 initially, then 1.1765 where the four-hour 200-EMA and the lower band of the broader consolidation meet. Beneath 1.1765, the next technical magnets are 1.1670–1.1672 and the January low at 1.1578, and once those are in play the market would be pricing a much deeper reset of the entire post-January advance.

On the topside, resistance starts immediately at 1.1850–1.1856, where the psychological 1.1850 handle aligns with the nine-day EMA. Above there, 1.1860–1.1870 forms the first proper supply band on the intraday charts. A daily close over 1.1890–1.1900 would be the first sign that bears are losing their grip and that the pair is rotating back toward the centre of the wider range. Beyond that, 1.1927 stands out as the next resistance zone, and 1.2082, the highest level since June 2021, marks the top of the current structure. As long as spot trades below 1.1890–1.1900, every test of 1.1850–1.1870 looks more like an opportunity for sellers to reload than a clean breakout.

EUR/USD – Trading stance: short bias while below 1.1890–1.1900, targeting 1.1765 and potentially 1.1670

Putting the pieces together – price action under 1.1850, intraday momentum pointing down, a firm USD with the Dollar Index coiling near 97, and an event calendar that can easily fuel more dollar strength – the balance of risk for EUR/USD is still tilted lower. The pair is not collapsing, but it is grinding down through successive supports with sellers defending every bounce into resistance. With that configuration, my directional stance is straightforward: EUR/USD is a Sell (bearish bias) while it trades below 1.1890–1.1900. Under that ceiling, rallies into 1.1850–1.1870 look vulnerable to renewed selling, with downside focus on 1.1835 first, then 1.1810–1.1800 and 1.1765. If 1.1765 breaks on a closing basis, the door opens to a full test of 1.1670–1.1672 and potentially the 1.1578 area.

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