EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Near 1.1750 As Trump And Fed Crosswinds Pin The Pair Just Below 1.18

EUR/USD – Bulls Hold 1.17 As Trump, Fed And PMIs Pull The Pair Toward A Breakout Zone

Short-Term Picture: EUR/USD Trapped Between 1.1589 Support And 1.1808 Resistance

EUR/USD is sitting around 1.1730–1.1750 after a sharp recovery from the 1.1575–1.1590 area. That bounce broke a short descending channel on the 4-hour and daily charts and turned the structure into a rising short-term trend. Price is now parked just below the 1.1760–1.1769 band, which is the upper boundary of the recent channel and a clear resistance cap. Above, the three-month high at 1.1808 and then the 1.1918 zone are the next upside checkpoints. On the downside, 1.1695 and 1.1672 are immediate demand, combining a nine-day EMA, the 50-day EMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1695–1.1672 and does not lose 1.1589, the bias stays skewed to further gains rather than a reversal lower.

Macro Drivers: Trump’s Tariffs, Greenland Deal And Fed Uncertainty Push EUR/USD Higher

The fundamental backdrop is dominated by US politics and the Federal Reserve. Trump’s tariff threats toward Europe around the Greenland dispute initially hit sentiment but ultimately fed into the weaker-dollar narrative he wants. The USD sell-off regained momentum after he floated additional European tariffs over a weekend, then partially cooled as a “framework” deal on Greenland and NATO cooperation was announced, including removal of a 10% tariff on several EU countries. That sequence kept the dollar index pinned near the 98.25–98.50 zone instead of recovering toward 99.50, and that soft dollar is what allowed EUR/USD to climb from roughly 1.1580 back into the 1.17s. At the same time, markets are unsure who will lead the Fed and how aggressive the next easing cycle will be. Weekly jobless claims around 200,000, a four-week average near 201,500 and continuing claims around 1.849 million show a still-solid labor market, but the mix of slightly softer prints and political pressure on the Fed is enough to keep rate-cut expectations alive and cap any sustained USD rebound. For EUR/USD, that combination of political noise, Fed uncertainty and only moderate US data resilience keeps the path of least resistance tilted upward rather than back toward 1.15.

Eurozone Data: PMI Stabilization Supports The Euro But Does Not Justify A Runaway Rally In EUR/USD

On the Euro side, the key story is stabilization, not acceleration. Flash HCOB services PMI at 51.6 shows modest expansion, exactly in line with expectations, while manufacturing PMI climbed from 48.8 to around 49.4. That improvement is statistically meaningful but still keeps the factory sector in contraction territory below 50. Germany shows a similar pattern, with services PMI around 53.3 and manufacturing near 48.7, signaling that the largest Eurozone economy is recovering slowly but still wrestling with industrial weakness. This set of numbers helps explain why EUR/USD has been able to rise from the 1.15–1.16 lows without collapsing again, but also why the pair is struggling to punch decisively through 1.18–1.19. The Euro has just enough fundamental support to justify pricing around 1.17–1.18 while the dollar is under political and policy pressure, yet it lacks the growth and inflation story needed for a clean break toward and above 1.20.

Technical Structure: EUR/USD Bullish Bias While Above 1.1695–1.1672, With 1.1769–1.1810 As The Immediate Ceiling

Technically, the daily chart shows EUR/USD holding above both the nine-day EMA at roughly 1.1695 and the 50-day EMA around 1.1678. Both moving averages are sloping higher, and the shorter EMA is positioned above the longer one, which confirms a bullish short-term structure. The prior descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now testing its former upper boundary near 1.1760 from below. The 14-day RSI sitting near 58–60 supports a neutral-to-bullish momentum profile: the indicator has cooled from overbought territory but remains well above the 50 line, signaling consolidation after a strong leg higher rather than distribution at the top. On the 4-hour chart, the recovery from 1.1577 has carved a new rising channel. Resistance comes in first at 1.1760–1.1769, then at 1.1808, and beyond that at 1.1918, which is the highest level since mid-2021. Immediate support is clustered at 1.1723 (roughly the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest move), followed by the confluence around 1.1695–1.1672 (38.2% and 50% retracements plus the key EMAs). As long as that demand band holds, any dip into the high 1.16s looks more like a buyable correction than the start of a new bearish trend.

Sentiment And Positioning: From Parity Fears To A Compressed Bullish Pennant In EUR/USD

Just a year ago, consensus was obsessed with parity calls after EUR/USD had printed a higher low just above the 1.0200 handle, and sentiment around the Eurozone economy was extremely pessimistic. Since that inflection, the pair has trended higher, leaving that 1.0200 low and the 1.1492 area as crucial structural supports on the weekly chart. The price action over the last five months shows a classic digestion pattern: lower highs and higher lows forming a symmetrical triangle, which, given the prior bullish impulse from 1.02 to above 1.17, is better read as a bull pennant than a neutral consolidation. Each attempt to sell EUR/USD back down has stalled above the previous major low, while buyers have consistently defended supports like 1.1593 and 1.1589. Donald Trump’s repeated pushes for a weaker dollar – via tariffs, Fed criticism and surprise weekend announcements – stopped the USD from extending its prior rally and effectively enabled this consolidation. The market is now in a position where a relatively modest catalyst on either side (a meaningful improvement in Euro data or a more aggressive Fed easing narrative) can trigger upside resolution out of this pennant rather than a return to the old parity story.

Intraday Dynamics: EUR/USD Respecting 1.1730–1.1769 Range With Buyers Waiting On Dips

On short-term timeframes, intraday flows show EUR/USD respecting a tight 1.1730–1.1769 band. Price has tested above 1.1750 multiple times but long upper wicks near 1.1769 reveal persistent supply in that zone, which coincides with a prior swing high and intraday resistance. At the same time, buyers repeatedly step in around 1.1695–1.1725, where the rising trendline, key Fibonacci levels and EMAs converge. This creates a rising triangle pattern on the intraday charts: flat resistance overhead at 1.1760–1.1769 and ascending support underneath. Rising triangles after a prior advance are usually continuation patterns, favoring a topside break once the market digests the last data batch and the Fed event risk. The RSI on 2-hour and 4-hour charts hovers around 60, confirming that the pair is neither overbought nor exhausted but rather coiling energy for the next leg.

Event Risk: Fed Decision, US PCE, And Eurozone Data As Triggers For The Next EUR/USD Move

Near-term, the key catalysts are the Fed rate decision and US inflation data alongside Eurozone releases. Markets are pricing a hold within the 3.50%–3.75% range at the upcoming Fed meeting, but what matters is the tone around future cuts. Any hint that rate cuts will come earlier or more aggressively than currently expected will push yields lower and likely drive EUR/USD above 1.1769 and toward 1.1808 or even 1.1918. Conversely, a pushback from the Fed, combined with stronger-than-expected PCE inflation, would support the dollar and test the Euro’s resilience at 1.1695 and 1.1672. On the European side, further improvement in PMIs or upside surprises in hard data like industrial production or retail sales would reinforce the idea that the worst of the slowdown is behind, making it easier for the pair to sustain pricing above 1.17. Weak data would not automatically break the uptrend but would make any move beyond 1.18 harder to justify and leave EUR/USD more sensitive to a USD squeeze.

Trading Stance: EUR/USD Bias Bullish, Buy Dips Above 1.1695, Watch 1.1769–1.1810 For Breakout Confirmation

Putting everything together – the technical structure, macro backdrop and sentiment – the balance of evidence favours a bullish-to-constructive stance on EUR/USD at current levels. The dollar index sitting around the 98.25–98.50 zone instead of regaining 99+, the political pressure on the Fed, and the gradual stabilization in Eurozone PMIs all support the idea that dips toward 1.1695–1.1672 are opportunities for the long side rather than invitations to short. A rational plan is to treat 1.1695 as primary support and 1.1645 as the line in the sand: as long as EUR/USD trades above that band, the structure argues for buying weakness toward the upper-1.16s with upside targets initially at 1.1760–1.1769 and then 1.1808. A clean daily close above 1.1808 would open the path toward 1.1918 and bring the 1.20 psychological level back into play. Only a decisive break back below 1.1589 and the lower boundary of the broader triangle would flip the view to bearish. Until that happens, the pair remains a buy-on-dips candidate rather than a sell, and the risk-reward favours staying constructive on EUR/USD rather than fading this advance.

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