EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro to Dollar at 1.1771 Faces Key Test at 1.1586 as NFP and Fed Cut Bets Dominate

EUR/USD Holds at 1.1771 as Market Awaits U.S. Jobs Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1771, consolidating after a volatile month where price action has tested both liquidity pockets and major resistance. Bulls remain focused on the 1.1790 level, while short-term traders eye the 1.1750–1.1755 support block that has repeatedly cushioned declines. A decisive move below this zone exposes 1.1735, while sustained momentum above 1.1790 could open a run toward the 1.1850–1.1867 region, where a prior liquidity sweep left a trail of trapped buyers.

Bearish Technical Signals Emerge as Euro Slips Below Yearly Uptrend

The broader weekly structure reveals that EUR/USD has broken below its 2025 uptrend channel, reversing nearly 1.9% off multi-year highs. Resistance at 1.1775 and 1.1917–1.2020 has proven too heavy, while key support lies near 1.1586–1.1593, the 61.8% retracement of the July rally. A deeper test of 1.1497 — aligned with the March 2020/2022 highs — would confirm a larger correction is unfolding. As long as the pair remains below 1.1775, risk is tilted to the downside, especially into the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Liquidity Sweeps and Fair Value Gaps Dominate Near-Term Structure

Intraday analysis highlights how EUR/USD’s rejection at 1.1850 triggered a liquidity run, leaving trapped longs and forcing a corrective wave lower. Price action has been gravitating toward a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.1720–1.1740, acting as a magnet before deciding the next major move. If the demand block at 1.1750–1.1755 continues to hold, bulls could attempt a rebound. But any break beneath opens the path toward 1.1573 and potentially 1.1394, levels that align with multi-year Fibonacci retracements.

Macro Divergence Reinforces Dollar Strength Against the Euro

The technical bearish setup is compounded by policy divergence. The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance even after delivering a 25 bps cut in September, while markets price in an 88% chance of another cut in October. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is struggling with sluggish eurozone growth and inflationary pressures, making it harder to tighten policy. U.S. economic strength was reinforced by a 3.8% GDP revision and core PCE inflation at 2.9% YoY, keeping the dollar supported despite rate cut expectations.

Key Events Drive Euro-Dollar Volatility Into October

The coming week is loaded with catalysts. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, JOLTS job openings, and ISM PMIs will be closely watched. Any upside surprise in U.S. labor markets could reinforce dollar dominance and pressure EUR/USD toward 1.1586 support. In Europe, weaker PMI prints in Germany and the wider eurozone highlight slowing activity, reinforcing bearish bias. Traders must also watch the DXY index holding above 98.00, which keeps the euro under persistent pressure.

Outlook: EUR/USD Faces $1.1586 Test Before Bulls Regain Control

The balance of evidence suggests that the euro is vulnerable in the near term. Resistance remains firm at 1.1775–1.1790, while bears control price action toward 1.1586–1.1497. If the U.S. jobs report comes in stronger than forecast, the correction could deepen toward 1.1394, while only a daily close above 1.1867 would reestablish bullish momentum. Based on current macro and technical signals, EUR/USD leans bearish, and the setup favors a Sell stance until support zones prove resilient.

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