EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Holds 1.1740 as Fed Cut and Data Delays Put 1.1762 Break to the Test

EUR/USD Price Outlook: 1.1740 Standoff After The Fed Cut, With 1.1762–1.1763 The Line That Decides Next Week

EUR/USD: 1.1740 Is A Holding Pattern, Not A Top

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1740–1.1741 after the latest 25 bp Fed cut, essentially marking time just under a well-defined resistance band instead of reversing. Price is compressing into the upper part of the recent range, not fading from it. That tells you positioning is cautious but still biased to the upside: traders are waiting for the delayed US data and the next macro impulse rather than treating this zone as a final top.

USD Side: One More Cut, But A Split Fed Keeps The Dollar On The Defensive

The Fed cut the target range by 25 bp to 3.50%–3.75%, but the real driver for the dollar is the internal division and “pause” tone. Several policymakers framed this as a period of assessment because key data have been delayed. Some officials stressed that inflation is still too high relative to the 2% target and were uncomfortable with moving faster. Others effectively argued that cutting earlier than 2026 risks losing control of the disinflation narrative. That split keeps the dollar from regaining clear bullish momentum: markets know more easing is plausible, but they also know the Fed will hide behind data for now, so the currency trades level-to-level instead of in a clean trend.

Macro Data Backdrop: Jobs And Inflation Justify The Pause But Not A Hawkish Pivot

The latest figures before the data blackout still matter. Nonfarm payrolls previously showed around 199,000 new jobs with unemployment near 3.7%, signaling a labor market that is cooling at the margin but not collapsing. Headline CPI around 3.1% confirms disinflation compared with the peak, yet inflation remains above the 2% target. That combination justifies a pause after the cut but does not support an aggressive tightening reset. For EUR/USD this means the macro environment still leans toward a softer dollar over time, but the Fed can use these numbers as cover to resist market pressure for a rapid rate-cut path if incoming data surprises hotter.

Euro Inflation And ECB Stance: Not Strong Enough To Kill The EUR Bid

On the European side, inflation data are mixed rather than outright deflationary. Germany’s HICP fell 0.5% month on month in November but held at 2.6% year on year. Spain’s HICP moved up to 3.2% year on year from 3.1%. At the euro area level, the latest reference you supplied for November shows inflation around 2.4%. This profile gives the ECB very little reason to rush into deep cuts while the Fed has already started trimming. The result is straightforward for EUR/USD: the euro does not need to be aggressively strong; it only needs to avoid becoming the “policy laggard” against a dollar whose own central bank is already easing. That relative stance supports the pair staying elevated above 1.17 rather than rolling over.

DXY Structure: Broken Support At 98.98 Turns Into A Ceiling

Dollar index price action confirms the shift in balance. A key 2025 pivot around 98.98 that previously acted as support has been broken and now behaves as resistance on rebounds. A nearby shelf around 98.60 caught a short-term bounce but failed to reverse the broader slide. Below current levels, there is an unfilled gap in the 97.71–97.96 area and a projected downside target near 97.46 from a larger topping structure. If bears push the index down into that zone, EUR/USD will have room to extend higher without needing additional positive euro-specific catalysts. The message from the dollar side is simple: unless EUR/USD fails technically, broader USD tone still favors rallies in the pair rather than deep, durable pullbacks.

Core EUR/USD Levels: 1.1762–1.1763 Is The Trigger Zone For A New Leg Up

Technically, EUR/USD is pinned just beneath a clearly defined breakout band. The first key cap is the December 11 high near 1.1762–1.1763, which has repeatedly generated upper wicks and intraday rejections. Just above that sits a longer-term level around 1.1748 that has acted as a major reference all year, derived from the 78.6% retracement of the 2021–2022 downswing. Earlier in Q4, that area produced lower highs and knocked bullish attempts back. The current structure is different: the pair already carved out a higher low near 1.1500 and has come back to test this area from a stronger base, so a clean daily close above 1.1762–1.1763 would not just be a marginal break; it would mark the transition from “capped rebound” to “trend extension.”

Upside Map: 1.1786, 1.1800, 1.1850 And 1.1918 As The Next Checkpoints

Once 1.1762–1.1763 gives way on a sustained basis, the market has a ladder of upside levels already in play. The first target is 1.1786, which sits just beyond the current resistance band and would likely be tested quickly on any convincing breakout. Above that, the round 1.1800 handle becomes the next magnet, followed by the broader resistance region around 1.1850. If the pair absorbs supply there, the yearly peak around 1.1918 comes back into focus as the logical end point of the move, effectively shifting the narrative to fresh highs rather than just a rebound inside a big range. From a trend standpoint, a sequence of higher low at 1.1500 and higher high above 1.1918 would confirm that the 2025 dollar rebound has been neutralized in EUR/USD.

Support Map: 1.1728, 1.1717, 1.1700 And The Real Line In The Sand At 1.1616

On the downside, the immediate zone that matters is the nearby fib cluster. Price is hovering near the 23.6% retracement at 1.1728 and a shorter-term Fibonacci reference at 1.1717. A brief dip into that band is still consistent with a constructive bullish setup, especially if buyers step in quickly and defend 1.1700 on closing basis. If 1.1700 breaks decisively, the market will watch the 38.2% retracement near 1.1707 and the 50% levels around 1.1689–1.1686 as the next demand areas. Below this block, moving-average structure defines the deeper support: the 50-day EMA around 1.1664 and the 100-day EMA and SMA clustered in the 1.1635–1.1641 region. The real structural line in the sand for bulls is 1.1616; a daily close below that level would signal that the current breakout attempt has failed and that the pair is rotating back toward the 1.1500 base instead of building a new leg higher.

Momentum, Trend Structure And Why Dips Are Still Being Bought

Momentum indicators in your data show EUR/USD grinding higher with RSI hovering around the mid-60s. That combination normally signals an uptrend that is extended but not yet exhausted. Price remains above the 50- and 100-day moving averages, and each pullback over the last three weeks has respected higher lows while the pair has gained close to 2% over that period. That is classic “buy-the-dip inside an emerging trend” behavior. As long as pullbacks stay above the 1.1660–1.1640 area and ideally above 1.1700, the path of least resistance continues to point upward, even if the rally comes in waves rather than a vertical move.

Rate Expectations, Labor Data Risk And Why EUR/USD Reacts Violently To Surprises

Market pricing still leans toward more than one Fed cut in 2026 despite the official guidance pointing to a slower pace. That gap between what the Fed is signaling and what the market believes is the fuel for sharp FX moves. Delayed NFP and CPI data are now critical: if the jobs report prints substantially weaker than the earlier 199,000 reference with unemployment moving above 3.7%, the market will immediately price in a softer policy path, push yields lower, and likely drive EUR/USD through 1.1762–1.1763 toward 1.1786 and 1.1800. If CPI instead comes in hotter than the 3.1% headline marker, the “pause with hawkish tilt” camp inside the Fed gains real traction, yields can bounce, and EUR/USD can be forced back through 1.1717 and 1.1700, reopening the 1.1689–1.1660 support band. Because key data has been delayed, each release now carries more informational value, and that amplifies volatility around these exact levels.

Cross-Pair Confirmation: USD/JPY At 155.00 And The Message From The Yen

The behavior of USD/JPY around the 155.00 handle confirms that dollar weakness is not uniform. While EUR/USD and GBP/USD have pushed higher, USD/JPY has held a major higher-low at 155.00 ahead of the Bank of Japan decision. Markets expect a hike, but the real question is whether policymakers open the door to additional moves in 2026. If the BoJ delivers a more hawkish path than expected, yen strength can accelerate and drag the dollar lower across the board, reinforcing EUR/USD upside. If the BoJ stays ultra-cautious, yen weakness can partially offset dollar softness, capping how far DXY falls even if EUR/USD breaks out. That asymmetry is another reason why the euro pair, not the broader index, is the cleaner expression of the current Fed–ECB divergence.

Positioning Logic: How Different Trading Styles Read The Same Structure

From a positioning standpoint, the current structure supports two very different but internally consistent approaches. First, a trend-following view: as long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1700 and especially above 1.1689–1.1686, bulls can justify staying in the trade and targeting the 1.1786, 1.1800, 1.1850, and eventually 1.1918 band on a confirmed breakout. Second, a range and volatility view: while 1.1762–1.1763 caps price on a closing basis, mean-reversion traders can fade strength toward that band and buy dips toward 1.1700, using the 1.1616 level as hard invalidation for bullish structures and the 1.1786 region as the cap for short-term upside. Derivative structures described in your material, such as call spreads centered around 1.1750–1.1850 for limited-risk upside participation or one-month straddles to exploit a data-driven spike, fit well with this environment of compressed spot price and cheap implied volatility.

Verdict On EUR/USD: Clear Bias To The Upside, With Defined Failure Levels

Taking all the data together – the Fed’s 25 bp cut with a split committee, the still-elevated but easing U.S. inflation profile, the euro area’s mixed yet non-deflationary HICP readings, dollar index technical damage below 98.98, and EUR/USD’s own pattern of higher lows into a heavy resistance band – the directional call is bullish. EUR/USD is a buy while it holds above the 1.1700–1.1686 region, with the 1.1762–1.1763 band acting as the short-term trigger for a push toward 1.1786, 1.1800, 1.1850, and potentially 1.1918 if the breakout is confirmed. If the pair closes below 1.1616, that bullish thesis is invalidated, and the market will be signaling that the current attempt to turn the 2025 rebound into a sustained uptrend has failed.

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