Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Aims at $4,900 After Venezuela Shock Lifts XAU Back Above $4,460

Gold (XAU/USD) – Safe-Haven Rally with Structural Bullish Bias

From $4,310 to the $4,460–$4,750 band: how the move built up

Gold (XAU/USD) has climbed from around $4,310.89 per ounce to a higher trading zone between roughly $4,460 and $4,750, confirming a durable trend, not noise. In FX terms that translates to about £2,500–£2,600 per ounce in the UK and roughly 536.95 SAR per gram or 16,701.05 SAR per troy ounce in Saudi Arabia, showing that the rally is broad-based across currencies, not just a USD effect. Earlier spikes toward $4,440 were followed by shallow pullbacks into the $4,350–$4,360 region and then renewed buying that has taken price to fresh highs, consistent with a strong underlying trend in XAU/USD rather than a blow-off move.

Venezuela shock: why XAU/USD exploded back above $4,400 and then $4,460

The aggressive leg higher in Gold (XAU/USD) was triggered by the Venezuela crisis: the capture and removal of Nicolás Maduro and direct US military action. That episode forced a rapid repricing of geopolitical risk. Safe-haven flows pushed XAU/USD back toward the $4,440 area and then higher, with the market quickly trading above $4,460 after several consecutive bullish sessions. The key point is the pattern: an initial gap-style repricing on the headlines, followed by controlled follow-through buying instead of a sharp reversal. That tells you this was not just headline chasing; large players used the event to add strategic exposure to gold.

From Caracas to the South China Sea: how the geopolitical premium stayed in the price

Once the Venezuelan situation shifted from acute chaos to a managed transition, Gold (XAU/USD) did not unwind the risk premium. Instead, the focus rotated to new flashpoints, particularly tensions in the South China Sea. As price consolidated around $4,750, the market effectively embedded an ongoing geopolitical premium into XAU/USD. That behavior matters for positioning: it signals that large portfolios are treating gold as a standing hedge against a chain of overlapping risks, not a one-off hedge to a single crisis. For traders, it means that short positions against gold are fighting not just charts, but a persistent geopolitical bid.

Fed cuts, 3.1% inflation and labor data: macro drivers behind the XAU/USD bid

The macro backdrop reinforces the bullish case for Gold (XAU/USD). Through 2025, major central banks – led by the Federal Reserve – shifted from aggressive rate hikes to an easing stance. A series of cuts lowered real yields and supported non-yielding assets, with gold one of the main beneficiaries. The latest December 2025 CPI print around 3.1% shows inflation is still above pre-pandemic norms, keeping the Fed in a narrow corridor: it cannot justify a new hiking cycle, but it also cannot claim victory over inflation. That ambiguity keeps real yields capped and supports the opportunity cost argument for holding gold. The next major macro test is the December 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report, with consensus near 150,000 jobs and unemployment around 3.9%. A much stronger print could lift the US Dollar and trigger a tactical pullback in XAU/USD toward $4,350–$4,400; a softer number would weaken the dollar and likely invite another push toward and above recent highs.

Central banks adding 1,136t and >1,000t: the structural floor under Gold (XAU/USD)

Central bank demand is the main structural pillar for Gold (XAU/USD). In 2022, official institutions added around 1,136 tonnes to their reserves, the largest single-year net purchase on record. Preliminary estimates for 2025 indicate another year with over 1,000 tonnes of net buying. These flows are not speculative; they come from sovereign balance sheet reallocation to gold as a hedge against currency risk, inflation and geopolitical shocks. For XAU/USD, this means two things. First, physical supply available to satisfy investor and ETF demand is constantly being reduced. Second, any sharp downside driven by temporary USD strength or hawkish headlines is likely to meet a firm central-bank bid. That dynamic is why pullbacks into major supports around $4,350 and deeper into the $4,200–$4,210 region are more likely to be absorbed than to start a structural bear trend.

Technical structure in XAU/USD: EMAs, ascending triangle and the $4,900–$5,000 roadmap

Technically, Gold (XAU/USD) is in a mature but intact uptrend. On the daily chart, price trades above the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, with all of them positively aligned. The 20-day EMA near $4,350 has been the first line of defense on pullbacks, with aggressive buyers defending that area repeatedly. The 50-day EMA around $4,210 defines a deeper trend support zone and coincides with a prior consolidation band, making it a key level for medium-term positioning. Earlier, XAU/USD broke out of an ascending triangle whose base sat roughly in the low-$4,300s and whose top was near the $4,440–$4,450 resistance zone. The breakout was followed by a partial retest and renewed upside, matching classic pattern behavior even if intraday price action was messy. The measured move from that triangle points toward an upside target near $4,900. Longer term, if macro conditions remain supportive and central bank buying persists, there is a clean technical path toward $5,000 per ounce over time, with interim pauses rather than a straight line.

Momentum and intraday structure: why the XAU/USD rally looks like accumulation, not a blow-off

Momentum indicators back the bullish structure in XAU/USD. Daily RSI holds in the mid-60s, elevated but not extreme, and without a clear bearish divergence. In previous rallies, gold sustained similar RSI readings for extended periods while institutions accumulated. The correction late in 2025 relieved overbought conditions without damaging the uptrend, and the current push from the $4,350–$4,360 area back above $4,460 suggests buyers were waiting to reload on weakness. On intraday charts, gold has been building a sequence of higher lows, with dynamic support zones forming around $4,440–$4,450. That grind higher, with volatility front-loaded around headline shocks and then replaced by orderly buying, is characteristic of a trend maintained by professional flows rather than retail chasing.

Regional pricing and FX effects: SAR, GBP and the broader gold move

The rally in Gold (XAU/USD) is visible across local markets. In Saudi Arabia, gold is quoted around 536.95 SAR per gram, up from roughly 535.93 SAR, with a tola near 6,262.73 SAR, confirming a clear upward adjustment in domestic terms. These levels translate into approximately 16,701.05 SAR per troy ounce. In the UK, the same move that took spot XAU/USD from the $4,310.89 area into the $4,460–$4,750 zone maps into about £2,500–£2,600 per ounce, depending on the current GBP/USD rate. This cross-currency behavior confirms that the move is not only a USD story; even where local currencies fluctuate, gold is making new highs in domestic terms, reinforcing its role as a global store of value.

Key zones to trade: supports at $4,350 and $4,210, resistance bands at $4,480, $4,550 and $4,600–$4,900 in XAU/USD

For XAU/USD traders, the market is now defined by a set of clear levels. On the upside, recent highs near $4,475–$4,480 form the first resistance band. A daily close above that area would likely open a path toward the $4,550 region and then the $4,600 handle, where additional profit-taking can be expected. Beyond that, the measured-move target of the ascending triangle lies near $4,900, with the psychological $5,000 level as a natural magnet for medium-term flows if macro and geopolitical conditions continue to support gold. On the downside, the first meaningful support zone is $4,350, anchored by the 20-day EMA and recent reaction lows. A deeper correction would require a clean break below $4,300–$4,310, bringing the $4,200–$4,210 area into play around the 50-day EMA and prior consolidation cluster. As long as XAU/USD holds above that deeper band, the dominant interpretation remains “correction within an uptrend,” not trend reversal.

Gold (XAU/USD) verdict – bullish bias, buy-on-dips rather than fade-the-rally

Putting the pieces together – Venezuela shock, new geopolitical flashpoints, Fed cuts with inflation around 3.1%, strong central-bank buying above 1,000 tonnes a year, a healthy technical structure with supports at $4,350 and $4,210, and an ascending-triangle target near $4,900 – the balance of evidence points to a bullish stance on Gold (XAU/USD). The rational strategy here is buy-on-dips, not aggressive shorting into strength. Pullbacks toward $4,350–$4,400 look like opportunities for accumulation, with risk defined against the $4,200 band and upside potential toward $4,550–$4,900 over the coming legs of the trend. In simple terms: XAU/USD remains a Buy on weakness, not a Sell, as long as price holds above the deeper support cluster and the macro-geopolitical pillars behind this rally stay in place.

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