Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds $4,040 as Barrick Faces Pressure and Fed Delay Weighs on Momentum

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Near $4,040 as Volatility Spikes and Barrick Faces Investor Pressure

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $4,040 per ounce, holding just above critical support at $4,000, after retreating nearly 7% from its October 20 all-time high of $4,380. The metal’s recent slump marks its steepest decline since April, driven by renewed strength in the U.S. dollar (DXY 100.1), aggressive Treasury yields, and heavy liquidation from speculative longs following last month’s retail euphoria. The move coincides with turbulence across the mining sector, where Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) is under pressure from Elliott Management and investors calling for structural changes amid declining output and internal turmoil.

XAU/USD Technical Picture: Key Support Tested at $4,000

Gold’s chart structure has shifted into a symmetrical consolidation pattern, anchored between $4,000 and $4,100, after breaking down from the October double-top. Despite volatility, higher lows from $3,950 to $4,020 continue to build a potential base. According to current trading data, support at $4,000 has been tested five times over the past six sessions without a daily close below it, underscoring its technical significance. Should that level fail, the next support zone lies at $3,895–$3,916, while on the upside, $4,145–$4,161 and $4,250 serve as resistance. Sustained movement above $4,250 would reopen a path toward $4,380 and possibly $4,500, a key psychological mark.

Momentum indicators remain mixed: the RSI hovers near 48, showing loss of bullish momentum without clear capitulation, while MACD signals flattening. The ADX at 29 indicates a consolidating, rather than trending, environment—consistent with coiling behavior before a potential breakout.

Retail and Regional Demand: Asia’s Gold Rush Despite Dip

In Southeast Asia, demand for physical gold remains intense. In Kuala Lumpur, jeweler data shows 916 gold priced at RM595 per gram, while 999.9 gold fetches around RM625–RM640, even after retreating from October’s RM680 peak. Despite the dip, Habib Jewels and other major retailers report 20% higher sales in 2025 than last year, with queues forming as buyers exchange jewelry for profit or reinvest in gold bars. Retailers are serving 50–100 customers daily, doubling weekday volume from 2024.

Buyers are split between profit-taking and accumulation. Some anticipate further gains, targeting RM700–RM1,000 per gram by 2026. Public Gold, one of Malaysia’s largest digital investment platforms, reports a surge in online gold purchases as households seek to hedge inflation and currency risk.

Macro Drivers: Fed Policy, Inflation, and Global Fear Trade

The broader macro setup remains pivotal. Gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) has turned positive again in 2025, meaning both assets move in sync amid U.S. growth uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s decision to delay any policy easing into 2026, confirmed by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) forecasts, limits upside momentum for non-yielding assets. Additionally, rising Japanese bond yields, concerns over an AI-driven equity bubble, and fears of a global market correction have amplified volatility.

Still, gold remains resilient compared to broader risk assets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 11% this week, while gold held within its range, suggesting steady haven interest. Inflation pressures from energy and food remain persistent, keeping real yields tight and dampening speculative buying.

Mining Sector Turmoil: Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) Faces Breakup Pressure

While gold prices hover near $4,000, miners are facing a reckoning. Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD)—valued near $64 billion—is under activist scrutiny following the abrupt exit of CEO Mark Bristow and the entry of Elliott Management, which has reportedly taken a $700 million stake. The hedge fund’s push for restructuring, possibly splitting the company into separate North American and global units, follows a series of setbacks, including safety incidents, declining production, and geopolitical risk from its $9 billion Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan.

Barrick’s share price has lagged peers like Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) and AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU), trading at lower valuation multiples despite record bullion prices. Interim CEO Mark Hill has shifted focus to Nevada operations, integrating its Pueblo Viejo mine and emphasizing safety improvements after three fatalities across sites this year. Investors expect clarity before year-end on potential asset divestments or a merger with Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM), which already shares ownership of key assets.

Silver’s Weakness Adds Weight to Gold’s Correction

Silver (XAG/USD) amplifies the pressure, sliding over 10% since its October peak. The metal’s double-top pattern suggests deeper retracement potential, with downside targets near $41 per ounce. The technical correlation between gold and silver remains strong, meaning a silver breakdown often precedes extended weakness in XAU/USD. Analysts view the A-B-C corrective wave in silver as a cautionary signal for gold bulls expecting a quick rebound.

Investor Psychology and ETF Flows

ETF holdings show defensive behavior. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) reported modest outflows of $327 million last week, while iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:IAU) saw $95 million in inflows, suggesting portfolio rebalancing rather than mass liquidation. Institutional investors are rotating from leverage-based products to physical-backed funds amid tightening liquidity conditions.

Retail sentiment, on the other hand, is deeply polarized—fear of missing another rally competes with the desire to lock profits. The gold-to-silver ratio, now above 95, remains elevated, signaling risk aversion and preference for core safe-haven exposure over industrial-linked metals.

Global Hedging Dynamics: Gold’s Role in Crisis Sentiment

Despite its near-term consolidation, gold retains its hedge status across multiple jurisdictions. Central banks, led by China, Turkey, and India, have collectively purchased over 460 tons year-to-date, according to IMF data. China’s opaque reserve accumulation policy remains a key driver—its quiet acquisitions throughout Q3 supported gold’s early rally past $4,000 before October’s selloff.

Meanwhile, private-sector gold accumulation in emerging markets continues. Digital platforms in Southeast Asia report transaction growth exceeding 35% year-over-year, a sign that retail confidence remains strong despite volatility. In Malaysia and Thailand, gold remains a cultural and financial hedge, underpinning long-term demand even as global markets flirt with panic.

Strategic Outlook for XAU/USD

From a technical and macro standpoint, gold’s near-term direction hinges on the $4,000 support threshold. A daily close below it risks a breakdown toward $3,895–$3,900, while sustained trade above $4,100–$4,150 could mark the beginning of a new rally cycle toward $4,250 and eventually $4,380.

Institutional positioning leans neutral but biased toward accumulation on dips. If central banks maintain gold buying pace and the Fed signals even mild dovishness in Q1 2026, XAU/USD could regain its bullish footing.

At current levels near $4,040, the risk-reward balance favors a Hold outlook—technically cautious, fundamentally supported. The consolidation between $3,950 and $4,150 remains a potential launchpad for renewed momentum once macro clarity returns. Gold’s behavior against the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and NASDAQ:IXIC correlation will serve as the next barometer for investor risk tolerance as 2025 draws to a volatile close.

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