Gold Price Forecast – XAU/USD Holds $4,600 After Record High Near $4,650

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Above $4,600 After A 184% Multi-Year Surge

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading just under record territory after an explosive multi-year move. Since the end of 2019, the metal has risen roughly 184%, including about 63% in 2025 and another ~6% already in January 2026. The January contract recently settled around $4,588.40, while spot and futures have been oscillating in a narrow band just above $4,600, with Comex futures printing a fresh high near $4,650.50 before slipping back toward the $4,595–$4,610 zone. That combination – fresh all-time high, weekly gain of about 2%, and a stall under $4,650 – signals a market that is still in a powerful uptrend but no longer in a one-way melt-up.

Global XAU/USD Tape: New Highs Near $4,650, Then A Controlled Pullback

Over the latest week, front-month gold futures on Comex added roughly $94.50, a gain of about 2.09%, closing near $4,595.40 after touching an intraday record around $4,650.50. Spot XAU/USD briefly traded close to $4,642.72 before fading to about $4,604.29, and near-month US futures finished around $4,608.90, down only 0.3% on the day but still up close to 2% week-on-week. Price action flipped from vertical to rotational: every break above $4,640–4,650 attracts profit-taking, but dips toward $4,580–4,590 still find buyers. From a pure tape perspective, as long as gold holds above the prior resistance band around $4,550–4,570, the breakout remains valid and the pullback reads as consolidation inside a strong secular uptrend.

Regional Pricing And Physical Markets: XAU/USD Strength Now Embedded Globally

Domestic benchmarks in major consuming countries have fully internalised the move in XAU/USD. Indian futures linked to the international price curve have pushed to record levels equivalent to the $4,600+ per-ounce zone, before easing slightly into the weekend on profit-taking and a modest dollar bounce. Retail demand in India is reported as muted at these extremes, which is exactly what you expect when global prices sit at all-time highs: traditional jewellery and bar buyers step back, while investment demand remains more selective.
In Nepal, benchmark quotes for refined bullion have also been nudged higher in line with the global trend, mirroring the rise in XAU/USD above $4,600. By contrast, parts of China are seeing local premiums to the international price as buyers add exposure ahead of the Lunar New Year. That split – cautious Indian consumer, steady or firm Chinese investor – shows that physical demand is no longer uniformly strong, but there is still enough regional support to keep dips shallow as long as the global dollar price holds its breakout.

Macro Drivers For XAU/USD: Fed Timing, Dollar Strength And US Data

Short-term macro news has turned less supportive even as the structural case for XAU/USD stays intact. Weekly US initial jobless claims fell to roughly 198,000, about 9,000 below the prior print and materially better than expectations near 215,000. That helped push the dollar toward a third consecutive weekly gain, lifted Treasury yields off recent lows and trimmed the market’s near-term Fed-cut expectations. A firmer dollar and higher real yields are classic headwinds for non-yielding assets: they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and make dollar-priced metals more expensive for non-US buyers.
The fact that XAU/USD is still sitting near $4,600 with those macro headwinds in place is the key signal. It means the underlying structural bid – from central banks, ETFs and long-horizon investors – remains strong enough to offset a stronger dollar and a slower easing timeline. Near term, the rate story argues for more two-way trading around 4,550–4,650, not an immediate extension to 4,800+, unless incoming inflation and growth data swing clearly back in favour of earlier and deeper cuts.

Safe-Haven Premium In XAU/USD: Iran Risk Fades, But Geopolitical Floor Stays High

The latest leg up in XAU/USD was driven by a spike in geopolitical risk, particularly fears of escalation involving Iran. As traders priced in a higher chance of broader conflict, safe-haven flows into gold accelerated, helping push futures through $4,600 and toward the $4,650 peak. Once tensions eased – with a softer tone on potential US intervention and reports of protests subsiding – part of that panic premium evaporated, triggering the modest pullback seen late in the week.
However, the broader geopolitical context remains supportive for XAU/USD. Tensions around the Middle East, ongoing trade and tariff disputes, and a noisy global political calendar all feed demand for assets that sit outside the fiat system. That is why gold only slipped a fraction from its highs once the specific Iran scare cooled. The safe-haven floor under XAU/USD is higher than in past cycles, and that floor will remain elevated as long as fiscal deficits, great-power rivalry and policy uncertainty stay in play.

Central Banks, ETFs And Structural Gold Demand Behind XAU/USD

Beneath the daily headlines, structural flows into XAU/USD are the main pillar of this cycle. Central banks – especially in emerging markets and parts of Asia – continue to add bullion to reserves as a hedge against currency debasement and sovereign credit risk. These flows are largely insensitive to short-term price spikes; they persist through pullbacks and provide a deep underlying bid.
On the listed side, the largest physically backed gold ETF has grown its holdings to about 1,074.80 tonnes, the highest level in more than three and a half years, after a small but important 0.05% weekly increase. At $4,600 per ounce, even a fractional tonnage move represents billions of dollars in incremental exposure. That ETF demand essentially absorbs a meaningful chunk of mine output and recycled supply, tightening the physical balance sheet underlying XAU/USD.
Add to that the broadening retail access in developed markets, where individuals can buy investment-grade bars directly through mainstream retailers and online platforms at spot-linked prices. The combined effect is clear: even if tactical traders are rotating in and out of gold, the long-term base of holders is larger, more diverse and more patient than in earlier cycles.

Silver, Platinum And Palladium: High-Beta Signals For The Gold Move

Silver has become the loudest high-beta signal around XAU/USD. Globally, spot silver closed the week around $88.53 per ounce after touching a record near $93.75, locking in roughly 11.6% weekly gains. On a year-to-date basis, silver is up about 23%, significantly outpacing gold’s ~6% January rise. Even after a 1.8% daily drop to around $90.66, silver remains one of the strongest performers in the commodity space, and flow trackers describe it as one of the most crowded positions among individual investors.
Platinum and palladium are softer. Spot platinum has slipped to roughly $2,358.95, down about 2.1% on the day, while palladium has fallen to near $1,748.50, a 2.9% decline after setting a fresh one-week low. That divergence – silver vertical, platinum and palladium under pressure – says this is not a broad, indiscriminate rush into all precious metals. Speculative capital is concentrating in gold and especially silver, turning silver into a potential stress point for the complex. A sharp correction in silver as it approaches the psychologically important $100 threshold would likely spill over into gold via cross-asset de-risking, even if XAU/USD fundamentals remain healthier than silver’s.

Street Targets For XAU/USD In 2026: 4,600 Base, 5,180 Average, 6,600 Bull Case

Starting from a 2025 close near $4,341.10, mainstream Street forecasts for gold in 2026 cluster in a bullish but not absurd zone. The simple average of major houses sits around $5,180 per ounce, implying roughly 19.3% upside from the $4,341.10 base and about 12–13% upside from current spot in the $4,600 region. An earlier subset of projections points to an average closer to $4,600, roughly 5.3% above the 2025 close, but the broader, updated sample is clearly more optimistic.
Within that distribution: one of the most aggressive mainstream calls is around $6,600, a 52% gain from $4,341, effectively projecting a second, smaller leg of the 2019–2025 bull. Several respected macro shops sit near $6,000 (about 38% upside), while large global banks cluster between $4,800 and $5,400, implying increases of roughly 10–24%. At the lower end, more conservative institutions project ranges around $4,500–4,700, or roughly 4–8% above the 2025 close, basically arguing that most of the easy upside has already been realised.
There are also long-horizon, high-conviction outliers. Some strategists see a path to $8,000 by 2028 and even $10,000 by 2030 if fiscal deficits, global tensions and a more inflation-tolerant Fed persist. Those numbers are not base cases for 2026, but they shape positioning: when serious macro shops talk about five-figure gold by the end of the decade, investors are more willing to tolerate short-term volatility around the $4,600 mark.

Historical Boom-Bust Lessons: 1980 Collapse And 2013 Drawdown As Warnings For XAU/USD

Past cycles show how quickly sentiment around XAU/USD can reverse. In 1980, gold spiked to about $850 per ounce, with consensus chatter pointing straight to $1,000. Instead, a combination of sharply higher margin requirements on commodity exchanges and an aggressive rate-hiking campaign by the Federal Reserve crushed leveraged speculators. Prices dropped more than 60% to roughly $350 by 1985 and did not revisit the $850 level until 2008.
A more recent example came around 2013, when concern over a possible US debt default helped propel gold to new highs. As policymakers resolved the standoff and the Fed tightened conditions, gold prices dropped roughly 40% from the peak. The lesson is simple: even when the macro arguments sound bullet-proof – inflation, deficits, geopolitical risk – XAU/USD is still vulnerable to sudden shifts in policy, funding costs and positioning.
Those episodes do not argue that today’s bull market must end the same way, but they are a useful check on the most extreme upside narratives. At current levels above $4,600, leverage is higher, sentiment is more optimistic, and many investors have never traded a true gold bust. That increases the damage potential if the environment flips from supportive to hostile.

Strategic View On Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish, But No Margin For Sloppy Entries

Putting the full data set together, XAU/USD above $4,600 is supported by powerful structural forces: a 184% multi-year advance driven by central-bank buying, ETF accumulation around 1,074.8 tonnes, persistent geopolitical risk and deep fiscal imbalances. Street forecasts centre on $5,000–5,400 for 2026, with credible upside tails toward $6,000+. At the same time, the short-term risk balance has shifted: US data and a firmer dollar are pushing back against aggressive near-term Fed easing, silver is crowded and hyper-volatile near $90–94, and history shows that gold booms can suffer 40–60% drawdowns when conditions flip.
Netting everything, XAU/USD at current levels is still a Buy, but a high-tension, late-cycle Buy rather than an early-cycle no-brainer. The numbers support a constructive stance as long as gold holds above the $4,550–4,570 breakout band, with a reasonable medium-term target zone in the $5,000–5,200 area and optionality toward $5,400–6,000 if macro conditions remain benign. A decisive weekly close below roughly $4,500 with continued dollar strength and weaker ETF holdings would flip the risk-reward toward Hold then Sell, with a correction back into the low-4,000s entirely plausible. At this point in the cycle, the direction is still up, but the market punishes late, leveraged, poorly timed entries much faster than it did on the way from $2,000 to $4,000.

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