Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Jumps Above $4,100 as Traders Await Fed Minutes and NFP

Gold Price (XAU/USD) Surges Beyond $4,100 as Traders Brace for Fed Minutes and Labor Data

The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) traded near $4,071.6 per ounce, climbing above the critical $4,075 mark for the second consecutive session. The move follows renewed global risk aversion, as equity markets remain unstable and the U.S. labor market data reignites fears of slower growth. Gold’s year-to-date gain stands near +55%, outperforming most major commodities, as investors rotate from overvalued tech assets into tangible hedges. The rally began after the metal bounced off the $4,000 support zone, confirming strong institutional bids and retail accumulation. The next inflection point now lies in the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will determine whether the current uptrend extends toward $4,200–$4,245 or fades under renewed dollar pressure.

Fed Ambiguity Keeps XAU/USD Volatile Near $4,100

The Federal Reserve’s mixed communication has become the central theme driving gold’s intraday volatility. After a prolonged U.S. government shutdown disrupted data reporting, traders are facing a backlog of macro releases, creating sporadic liquidity. The return of 1.9 million continuing jobless claims and a two-month high in new claims gave the market a temporary dovish impulse, but the tone from the Fed remains cautious. Jerome Powell emphasized that “a reduction in policy rates is not guaranteed,” while Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested restrictive policy could remain into Q1 2026. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) advanced to 99.97 (+0.52%), limiting gold’s upside momentum. A dovish set of minutes could ignite another surge beyond $4,140, while a hawkish stance would likely trigger a slide toward $4,045–$4,000.

Labor Data Delay Heightens Tension Ahead of Thursday’s NFP

The postponed Non-Farm Payrolls release now holds outsized influence over market sentiment. Expectations stand near 50,000 new jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. A weak print could validate rate-cut bets and lift XAU/USD toward $4,200, while a strong number could send prices back below $4,050. The ADP report already indicated job losses averaging 2,500 per week, signaling potential softness in private hiring. The probability of a December rate cut has fallen from 94% a month ago to 47%, highlighting deep uncertainty. Traders remain reluctant to increase leverage ahead of the dual catalysts, and any surprise in employment data could produce an immediate, large-scale gold revaluation.

Technical Framework of XAU/USD Points to Ongoing Bullish Structure

Technically, gold remains in an established uptrend. The 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are positioned below current price action, forming a textbook bullish alignment. The RSI stands near 55, confirming mid-range momentum with upside potential. MACD readings have turned positive, and the stochastic oscillator on the four-hour chart shows rising momentum above the 50 level. Key levels to monitor are support at $4,045–$4,050, with extended support near $4,000, while resistance lies at $4,140–$4,245, coinciding with the November monthly high. A decisive breakout above $4,140 could accelerate gains toward $4,284, completing the projected fifth wave in the ongoing upward cycle.

Central Banks Extend Multi-Year Gold Buying Spree

Institutional accumulation remains the most powerful pillar supporting long-term gold prices. According to Goldman Sachs, global central banks acquired 64 tons of gold in September, a sharp increase from 21 tons in August, continuing a steady diversification away from the U.S. dollar. The World Gold Council estimates global holdings now exceed 36,000 tons, marking a record level for official reserves. Asian countries such as China, India, and Singapore have accelerated purchases as they hedge against currency volatility. Meanwhile, ETF inflows have resumed, adding $450 million in the past week, while global mining supply contracted by 1.8% year-on-year, reinforcing structural scarcity. These fundamentals keep gold firmly supported above $4,000, even amid short-term speculative fluctuations.

Equity Weakness and Political Volatility Fuel Safe-Haven Rotation

The re-pricing of overvalued growth equities is directly feeding into the gold rally. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) has declined 6% this month, led by profit-taking in AI-linked stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Investors are trimming exposure to high-beta assets and increasing gold positions as a defensive hedge. Political instability has compounded risk-off sentiment. Recent remarks by President Trump suggesting he would dismiss Fed Chair Powell raised volatility expectations, though markets largely dismissed immediate action. Meanwhile, elevated shelter inflation and persistent mortgage pressures are obstructing the Fed’s disinflation goals, reinforcing the metal’s role as a store of value in a policy gridlock environment.

Cross-Market Correlations Reinforce Gold’s Defensive Role

Gold’s inverse correlation to the U.S. dollar and yields remains robust. With the Dollar Index trading near 100.00, XAU/USD is holding just below $4,100, reflecting balance between risk sentiment and monetary policy uncertainty. By contrast, WTI crude (CL=F) has fallen -2.29% to $59.35, emphasizing deflationary pressure in energy markets. The divergence highlights gold’s resilience as a liquidity hedge and real-asset alternative. Meanwhile, equities remain volatile, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 6,654 and the Dow Jones (^DJI) at 46,063, both fluctuating in narrow ranges. The VIX remains elevated at 22.64, amplifying demand for non-correlated assets like gold.

Forecasts Strengthen as Analysts Lift Price Targets for 2026

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its long-term forecast of $4,900 per ounce by end-2026, citing sustained institutional buying, declining real yields, and geopolitical tensions. Central banks’ ongoing reserve diversification supports this thesis, with the metal now accounting for up to 15% of foreign-exchange reserves in several emerging markets. With mining investment constrained and ETF holdings stabilizing, analysts see limited downside risk below $3,950. The expected shift to a lower-rate regime by mid-2026 further underpins the bullish projection.

Market Positioning Signals Tactical Consolidation With Upward Bias

In the near term, XAU/USD is expected to trade within a controlled band of $4,040–$4,140, awaiting confirmation from macro data. Technical positioning, combined with sustained central-bank demand and a dovish lean from policymakers, keeps the bias moderately bullish. Traders anticipate that any dovish surprise in Fed minutes or weak labor data could ignite a push to $4,200–$4,245, while stronger economic prints could pull the metal back to $3,950–$4,000.

Final Investment Verdict: Hold With Bullish Bias

Considering resilient institutional demand, constrained mining output, and technical alignment above $4,000, gold remains in a structurally bullish phase. The near-term recommendation is Hold, with preference to add on dips toward $4,050–$4,000. Upside targets remain at $4,200–$4,245, while long-term projections point toward $4,900 by late 2026. The medium-term bias stays bullish, with volatility expected to rise around the Fed minutes and NFP data, positioning XAU/USD as the most reliable macro hedge in the current risk cycle.

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