Natural Gas Price (NG=F) Sustains $4.35 Amid Pipeline Disruption and LNG Growth

Natural Gas (NG=F) Holds $4.35 As Supply Pressures, LNG Expansion, And Weather Volatility Collide

Natural Gas (NG=F) trades near $4.35/MMBtu, holding steady after an explosive breakout driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical risk, and strengthening winter demand. The commodity has surged over 35% since late October, marking its highest level since early spring. The rally began after prices broke above $3.60, a level that capped gains for nearly six months, and extended toward $4.70, where profit-taking emerged. Technical and fundamental forces are now converging to define the next major leg, with traders watching whether the market can sustain above the newly established breakout floor at $4.13 or correct toward $3.80–$4.00 before another advance.

Pipeline Accident In Russia Sparks Supply Shock And Risk Premium

A pipeline explosion in Russia’s Omsk region added a sharp risk premium to global gas prices. Although authorities confirmed containment, the incident reignited supply anxiety across Western Siberia ahead of peak winter season. The event underscored Europe’s structural vulnerability, especially as gas flows from Russia to the EU remain down over 70% from pre-war levels. The accident coincided with reduced flows through the Yamal–Europe corridor, tightening regional supply and pushing Dutch TTF futures up 1.4% to €31.85/MWh, their highest in two weeks.

This incident amplified upward momentum just as traders were recalibrating positions for colder December forecasts. It also reinforced bullish sentiment in the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub, where futures settled at $4.35/MMBtu, up 1.37% on the day. Analysts noted that even though storage levels in Europe remain 81.9% full, market focus has shifted from inventory coverage to infrastructure fragility—a critical pivot that may keep volatility elevated into January.

Corporate Moves Add Long-Term Demand Tailwinds

Adding to the bullish tone, TotalEnergies SE finalized a $6 billion acquisition for a 50% stake in EPH’s flexible power generation portfolio, effectively doubling its gas-fired generation capacity. This move positions TotalEnergies as a dominant supplier of baseload generation for Europe’s renewable-heavy grid. The transaction signals that energy majors view gas not as a transition fuel, but as the backbone for power stability through 2030. In parallel, Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK) surged 9.9% in the week ending Nov 14, boosted by rising gas prices and stronger drilling results across its Haynesville and Bossier Shales. Comstock also sold its Shelby Trough assets for $430 million, reducing debt and strengthening liquidity as it targets 2026 production expansion. UBS raised CRK’s price target to $16, acknowledging its leverage to higher gas realizations.

Technical Structure: Uptrend Confirmed With Bullish EMA Alignment

The NG=F daily chart shows a clear structural reversal. Prices broke the descending trendline that contained rallies since January and completed a symmetrical triangle pattern between June and October. The breakout above $3.60 triggered short covering and algorithmic buying that carried prices toward the $4.68–$4.70 supply band. Despite a temporary stall, consolidation has remained shallow, a hallmark of healthy trend continuation.

All major exponential moving averages are now in bullish alignment—the 20-day EMA at $4.13, 50-day at $3.70, 100-day at $3.50, and 200-day at $3.38—with widening spacing confirming an established uptrend. The Parabolic SAR flipped below price at $4.46, while RSI sits at 62.3, indicating firm but not overbought momentum. Key support rests at $4.13, followed by $3.80, the confluence zone of the 50-day EMA. Bulls continue to defend this region aggressively, viewing it as a loading zone for the next leg toward $5.00–$5.20, levels unseen since late 2023.

Weather Models Signal Demand Acceleration After Short-Term Lull

According to EBW Analytics, two weeks of mild U.S. weather may briefly dampen spot demand before a rapid shift to colder-than-average temperatures in early December. The contrast between a soft mid-November and a harsh early winter setup is expected to amplify volatility. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 17 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Nov 14, flipping U.S. inventories into seasonal drawdown mode. Total storage stands at 3.81 Tcf, only 2.4% above the five-year average, a level far tighter than last year’s oversupply.

Meanwhile, U.S. LNG feed gas flows hit a new record of 14.9 Bcf/d, led by Freeport and Calcasieu Pass terminals operating near full capacity. Global LNG demand continues to firm as Japan and South Korea rebuild inventories, while Mexico’s new export pipeline connections have started sending 0.8 Bcf/d southward, adding incremental pressure on U.S. balances.

Waha Price Collapse Highlights Regional Disparity And Infrastructure Limits

Not all segments of the market are benefiting equally. Kinetik Holdings Inc., a midstream operator in the Permian Basin, reported that Waha hub prices fell to –$1.10/MMBtu during Q3 2025 due to congestion and production shut-ins. Despite processing volumes rising 8%, the company’s quarterly earnings were hit by the localized oversupply. Relief is expected as new takeaway pipelines and LNG export capacity ramp up in 2026. The divergence between Henry Hub’s $4.35 benchmark and negative Waha pricing underscores how infrastructure bottlenecks distort regional valuations even amid global tightness.

Short-Term Volatility: Technical Gravity After Parabolic Advance

Despite the strong macro and structural backdrop, near-term gravity has returned to Natural Gas (NG=F). The contract gapped lower early Tuesday, filled the gap, and then slid again toward $4.30, suggesting short-term exhaustion following a vertical rally. Seasonal demand and positioning still favor upside, but overextension signals a likely pullback toward $4.20 or $4.00 before resuming higher. Traders describe this as a cyclical “right-hand side of the V pattern”—a cooling phase before the next surge.

This setup reflects a textbook post-breakout retracement: a temporary reset that preserves the uptrend while shaking out leveraged longs. As long as prices stay above $3.80–$3.60, the bullish structure remains intact. Analysts view this consolidation as constructive, noting that each prior breakout in 2021 and 2022 followed similar patterns before advancing 20–30% within weeks.

Fundamental Drivers: LNG, Power Demand, And Industrial Load Growth

The long-term bull case for Natural Gas (NG=F) rests on sustained demand growth. LNG exports from the U.S. are projected to climb from 14.9 Bcf/d to 18.2 Bcf/d by the end of 2026 as Plaquemines, Golden Pass, and Rio Grande LNG facilities come online. At the same time, domestic power generation continues to tilt toward gas due to nuclear retirements and renewable intermittency. TotalEnergies’ $6B deal, alongside BP and Shell’s ongoing investment in flexible gas turbines, reinforces that utilities are locking in gas capacity as the grid’s backbone.

Industrial consumption is also rising. The U.S. petrochemical sector alone is forecast to add 1.4 Bcf/d of incremental gas usage by 2027, primarily from new ammonia and methanol plants. Combined with export and heating demand, these flows will progressively absorb available supply, setting a base case for Henry Hub prices to average $4.80 in Q1 2026.

Market Psychology And Storage Risk Balance

The latest CFTC data show money managers’ net longs rising to 157,000 contracts, up 18% week-over-week, signaling a clear repositioning from neutral to bullish exposure. However, open interest near 1.48 million contracts indicates the market remains crowded, raising the risk of short-term volatility spikes. Should December weather fail to deliver the expected cold, profit-taking could accelerate temporarily.

Yet, structurally, storage risks remain asymmetric. With inventories already flipping into withdrawal and global LNG flows stretching U.S. supply, any colder-than-expected December could trigger Henry Hub spikes toward $5.40–$5.60, last tested in early 2023.

TradingNews Verdict: Natural Gas (NG=F) – Buy On Dips, Bullish Bias Above $4.00 Support

After integrating all technical, fundamental, and geopolitical signals, TradingNews assigns a Buy rating on Natural Gas (NG=F) with a bullish bias toward $5.00–$5.20 over the next 4–6 weeks. The market’s structural shift—supported by European power investment, strong LNG flows, and recovering industrial demand—suggests the current consolidation is temporary. A sustained move above $4.68 would confirm breakout continuation, while pullbacks to $4.00–$3.80 are viewed as attractive re-entry zones.
Key risks include warmer-than-expected December temperatures and regional dislocations such as Waha’s negative pricing, but the overall trajectory points upward as global gas fundamentals tighten into winter 2025–2026.

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