Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Slides Back to $4,900 While $5,800 Target Hangs Over the Market

Gold Price – XAU/USD After the January Shock: Where the Market Really Trades Now

Gold Price – From $5,608 Peak to $4,850–$4,950 Support: Mapping the Crash and the Bounce

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in the $4,900–$4,950 region after a brutal but still structurally bullish sequence: a blow-off high at around $5,608 on January 30, a one-day collapse to roughly $4,745 on January 31, a quick stabilization in the $4,750–$4,800 band by February 2, and then a recovery spike to about $5,120 on February 11 before the latest leg down toward $4,858–$4,911 on February 17. That path represents a drawdown of roughly $860 from the high (about -15%) and a fresh 10-day low after the market failed repeatedly to hold above the psychological $5,000 ceiling. Silver tracked the same script with more leverage: a rebound to roughly $83 on February 2 after the crash, then a slide back below $73 during Asian trading on February 17 before clawing back toward $74. Despite the hit, Gold is still up roughly 6.5% on the month and about 67% year-on-year, while silver holds around +4% month-on-month and more than +150% over 12 months – this is a violent correction inside an ongoing secular bull, not a completed top.

Gold – XAU/USD Technical Map: Support at $4,850–$4,640 Versus $5,000–$5,200 Resistance

On the daily XAU/USD chart, price is now oscillating just under the main $5,000 round number, with the tape rotating around a tight band of moving averages that all sit overhead. Spot gold has been trading near $4,942, about 1% lower on the session, with intraday lows breaking below the February 12 trough and marking the weakest levels in around ten days. The 20-day moving average (around $4,952) and the 50-day moving average (near $4,980) are now clear resistance, not support, and the 100-day moving average around $5,007–$5,008 reinforces the idea that $5,000 has flipped from a magnet to a ceiling until buyers can reclaim it with conviction. Immediate downside levels are packed closely: initial support sits in the $4,918–$4,907 pocket, followed by a secondary band at roughly $4,903–$4,901. Below that, the more strategic levels from the crash come back into play: the $4,850–$4,900 area that already caught multiple tests, then the more important $4,640 zone flagged by several technical desks, and finally the deeper $3,900–$4,000 cluster where the 200-day moving average meets the November 2025 lows and the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel. On the topside, the market first needs to retake $4,952–$4,960 (short-term moving average zone), then $4,980, and then hold above $5,000–$5,008. Only above $5,100–$5,120 does the door reopen toward the $5,180–$5,200 band and finally the $5,608 all-time high.

Gold – XAU/USD Momentum Profile: RSI, MACD and Volatility Show a Controlled, Not Panicked, Pullback

Momentum indicators for XAU/USD confirm that the market is correcting rather than capitulating. The daily RSI sits around 43–44, below the neutral 50 line but far from oversold, which tells you sellers have the initiative without triggering a forced liquidation environment. MACD readings around -18 signal negative but not extreme trend strength; short-term bears are in control, but the indicator is nowhere near the kind of collapse seen at the January low. Average True Range over 14 sessions is roughly $28–$30, meaning a “normal” daily move is almost $30 per ounce – enough to produce sharp intraday squeezes and fake breakouts in both directions even when the broader structure is range-bound. That volatility profile fits what the market is actually doing: whipsawing between short-term support and resistance, punishing late longs above $5,000 and late shorts around $4,900, while the larger uptrend from 2025 remains technically intact as long as the 200-day moving average around $3,900–$4,000 holds.

Gold – XAU/USD Short-Term Patterns: From Bull Trap Above $5,000 to a Channel Retest

The behaviour around $5,000 over the past two weeks has formed a clean bull trap on the XAU/USD chart. After January’s crash, price consolidated just above $5,000 between February 9 and 12 in a narrow band, giving the impression of a new equilibrium. The brief spike back above the round number turned into a false breakout: bulls were unable to extend gains, and the reversal from that failed push allowed bears to take control and drive price below the first local support level. Once that level was broken, it flipped into resistance on the retest, confirming that the initiative had shifted. The current leg lower has taken the market back toward the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel that has defined the uptrend since well before the January peak. As long as price continues to trade inside that channel and respects the lower boundary, technicians still interpret the pattern as a correction within a bull market. A decisive break above the short-term descending resistance line that has capped every bounce since the high would complete a bullish flag structure and argue for a new impulsive leg higher; a clean break below the channel low and sustained trading under $4,600 would signal that the correction is maturing into something more serious.

Gold – XAU/USD Moving Averages and Trendlines: EMA50 Break and the Risk of Deeper Losses

From a trend-following angle, the recent slide in Gold has done real technical damage at the margin. Price failed several times to clear the key psychological $5,000 barrier and has now slipped below the 50-day exponential moving average, a level that had acted as support on earlier dips. At the same time, the metal broke beneath a short-term ascending trendline that guided the rebound off the January 31 low. Breaking both the EMA50 and that rising trendline in the same window significantly increases the odds of further downside in the near term, especially if XAU/USD continues to close below $5,000 and fails to recover that level quickly. The long-term ascending channel is still valid, but the market is pressuring its lower edge more frequently, which is exactly what you expect when an extended rally moves into a more volatile, two-sided phase. Bulls now have to defend a layered structure: first the 4,918–4,907 area, then the $4,850 shelf, then $4,640, and finally the $3,900–$4,000 200-day moving average zone. Losing that entire stack would shift the narrative from “buy the correction” to “reprice the entire cycle.”

Gold – XAU/USD Versus the US Dollar and Rates: DXY Strength and Fed Path as the Immediate Headwind

The macro backdrop for Gold is not uniformly hostile, but the short-term mix favours consolidation rather than a runaway rally. The dollar index is holding near the 97 handle, keeping dollar-priced bullion on the defensive and turning every uptick in the greenback into a headwind for XAU/USD. Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have swung back and forth: a softer 2.4% US inflation print recently supported the case for rate cuts later in the year, but stronger-than-expected labour market data and a resilient growth backdrop have reminded traders that the Fed is not under pressure to slash rates immediately. That tension in rate expectations is exactly why gold keeps stalling around $5,000 instead of charging straight to new highs. Lower yields and a weaker dollar still support the medium-term bull case, but as long as policy timing is uncertain, rallies are treated as opportunities to reduce leverage rather than to chase momentum.

Gold – XAU/USD Geopolitics and Liquidity: Calmer Headlines and Holiday Effects Reduce Safe-Haven Urgency

On top of the rates story, the safe-haven component of Gold demand has cooled at the margin. Negotiations around the conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine have reduced immediate headline risk, softening the urgency to pay any price for protection. At the same time, the calendar has been working against strong directional moves: Presidents’ Day in the US and Lunar New Year holidays across parts of Asia have thinned participation, especially from physical buyers. When liquidity is shallow and large physical orders are absent, price becomes more sensitive to speculative flows and algorithmic positioning. That is exactly what has been visible: relatively modest news has produced outsized intraday swings around key levels because there is less depth in the order book to absorb aggressive flows. Once full participation returns and the next batch of macro data hits, liquidity should normalize, but until then gold is trading in a more mechanical, level-to-level fashion rather than responding to a single dominant macro driver.

Gold – XAU/USD Crash Context: Still a Secular Bull Market With a Violent Mid-Cycle Reset

Even after the January 31 collapse, the bigger picture for Gold still points to a powerful secular uptrend that is undergoing a mid-cycle reset rather than a top. From the perspective of the last year, price has rallied around 67%, and the correction from $5,608 to roughly $4,745 before rebounding is large but not unprecedented in the metal’s history. Silver’s behaviour – a move from late-January highs near $122 back down toward $74 with support around $70 and a deeper line in the sand near $55 – simply illustrates the same story with more beta. The percentage retracements are sharp, yet they come after one of the strongest rallies in decades, and both metals remain far above their pre-2025 levels. Historical bull markets in gold have repeatedly featured 15–20% pullbacks inside broader moves that ultimately push significantly higher once the leverage is flushed out and positioning normalizes. The current drawdown fits that playbook: aggressive leverage built into a vertical spike toward $5,600, the market snapped, weak hands were washed out, and now the tape is deciding where the new equilibrium should sit.

Gold – XAU/USD Structural Demand: Central Bank Buying and Silver’s Industrial Floor

The fundamental floor for Gold is reinforced by steady central bank accumulation and persistent industrial and investment demand in silver. Official sector buyers are expected to take down more than 750 tonnes of gold in 2026, keeping a solid bid under the market even when Western speculative flows lean negative. That kind of structural demand does not prevent corrections, but it sharply reduces the probability of a prolonged bear market as long as global policymakers remain nervous about fiat stability, geopolitical fragmentation, and reserve diversification. On the silver side, industrial demand in the hundreds of millions of ounces – including areas like solar, electronics, and specialized manufacturing – underpins the white metal’s long-term case even if its short-term chart is far more volatile than gold’s. When you combine those factors with a still-elevated gold price near $4,900 and silver around $74, the setup looks more like a market working off an overstretched rally than a sector falling apart.

Gold – XAU/USD Institutional Forecasts: ANZ at $5,800 and the Ultra-Bullish Tail Risk Calls

Institutional and macro voices are split mainly on timing, not on direction, for Gold. One major bank has upgraded its target for Q2 2026 from $5,400 to around $5,800 per ounce, implying roughly 18% upside from the current $4,900 region. The argument is straightforward: unlike previous blow-off peaks in 1980 or 2013 that were followed by aggressive tightening and a stronger dollar, today’s environment is defined by easier US monetary policy over the medium term, heightened geopolitical risk, persistent policy uncertainty, and an overall weaker dollar trend. In that framework, the recent drop is described as an opportunity to add, not a signal to exit. At the extreme end of the spectrum, hard-money advocates such as Ron Paul still point to scenarios where gold eventually trades at $20,000 or higher if the fiat system’s credibility implodes. Those ultra-bullish numbers are not trading levels for this quarter, but they illustrate that a meaningful part of the market views current prices as cheap insurance against long-duration monetary and fiscal risk rather than as a speculative bubble at the end of its life.

Gold – XAU/USD Trading Behaviour: Range, Mean Reversion and Trap Risk Around $4,900–$5,000

Short-term trading in XAU/USD is currently dominated by mean reversion and traps rather than clean trends. With ATR near $28–$30, a typical two-day window can easily cover $50–$60 of price travel without changing the bigger picture. In that environment, supports around $4,918–$4,907 and $4,903–$4,901 often see responsive buying, but rebounds are repeatedly capped near the 20-day moving average around $4,952 and the 50-day near $4,980. The $5,000–$5,008 band, backed by the 100-day moving average, is now the “prove it” zone: every approach tests whether buyers are strong enough to break the pattern of lower highs or whether rallies keep turning into opportunities for shorts to reload. This is why recent breakouts above $5,000 have failed – they lacked the follow-through volume and macro catalyst to force a regime shift. Traders leaning into the range are fading extensions in both directions, but once one side is caught offside around those levels, the speed of the reversal can be violent because of the elevated intraday volatility.

Gold – XAU/USD Scenario Map: Bullish, Base and Bearish Paths From Here

From current levels around $4,900–$4,950, the tactical roadmap for Gold splits into three clear scenarios. In the bullish path, XAU/USD climbs back above $4,952–$4,960, takes out the 50-day moving average near $4,980, and then reclaims the $5,000–$5,008 zone on strong closes rather than intraday spikes. That would suggest the market has absorbed the January shock, repaired technical damage, and is ready to aim for $5,100–$5,200 again, with the all-time high at $5,608 back in play. In the base-case consolidation scenario, price churns between roughly $4,907 and $4,952, with dips repeatedly defended at support but every rally stalling into the moving average ceiling and the psychological $5,000 barrier. This keeps the market in a choppy, two-sided, range-driven regime until a macro catalyst – for example a clearer Fed rate-cut path or a fresh geopolitical spike – breaks the stalemate. In the bearish extension, XAU/USD loses $4,907 decisively, trades through $4,903–$4,901, and starts to “accept” sub-$4,900 prices. In that case, downside magnets reappear at $4,850, then $4,640, and finally the $3,900–$4,000 200-day moving average region. That sequence would not automatically kill the secular bull, but it would signal that the market is willing to retrace significantly more of the 2025–2026 move before looking higher again.

Gold – XAU/USD Investment Stance: Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Cautious, With Buy-the-Dip Bias

Putting the pieces together, Gold remains a long-term Buy with a short-term correction that still has room to run if key supports fail. Price has already suffered a mid-teens drawdown from the $5,608 peak, is trading below its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages but well above the 200-day, and is backed by strong central bank demand and a macro mix that still favours real assets over time. At the same time, the inability to hold above $5,000, the break of the short-term ascending trendline, and the current negative momentum profile (RSI in the low-40s, MACD below zero, dollar firm near 97) justify respect for additional downside toward $4,850 or even $4,640 if risk assets wobble and rate-cut expectations are pushed further out. For a disciplined trader or investor looking at XAU/USD, that combination argues for a bullish stance expressed through staged accumulation on weakness rather than aggressive buying into strength. Long-term, the probability still favours higher highs toward the $5,800 region flagged by institutional forecasts once the current flush completes; near-term, the tape is telling you very clearly that $5,000 is a battle line, not a guarantee. On balance, that makes Gold a Buy on dips with a bullish medium- to long-term outlook, but with the explicit condition that the $4,600 and then $3,900–$4,000 levels remain intact as the structural stop for the entire move.

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