Gold Price Forecast – XAU/USD Smashes $4,700 With $4,760 Pivot as Tariff Shock Builds

Gold Price Forecast – XAU/USD at Record Highs Above $4,700

Safe-haven stampede pushes XAU/USD through $4,700 on Greenland tariff shock

Gold priced in US dollars (XAU/USD) is trading in full crisis mode, not in a normal trend. Spot gold has broken decisively above $4,700, with prints around $4,720–$4,737 per ounce and intraday highs near $4,731–$4,737, while front COMEX futures (GC1!) hover in the $4,725–$4,735 zone. From mid-October lows to today, the metal has gained roughly 71% year-on-year and almost 38% in six months, an abnormal move for a traditionally defensive asset. The immediate catalyst is Trump’s threat of 10% tariffs from February 1, 2026, rising to 25% by June 1, on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK if the US does not secure control of Greenland. That shifts tariffs from a negotiation tool on trade flows to a weapon tied directly to geopolitical territory. Equity markets in Europe are under pressure, volatility is rising, and flows are rotating out of US assets into metals and alternative havens.

From $4,360 base to $4,737 spike: anatomy of the 2024–2026 gold breakout

The current rally in XAU/USD rests on a clearly defined structure rather than random noise. The first key leg pushed gold above the $4,360 zone – the October 2025 high that now coincides almost perfectly with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). That breakout confirmed a new impulse phase after a long consolidation under $4,000. Once $4,360 flipped into support, price accelerated into the $4,600–$4,640 area, where new all-time highs were set and retested multiple times. That region has now become the primary near-term support band beneath spot. The latest move – a 3% gap higher into approximately $4,730–$4,737 – extends the trend into another vertical leg. Even if XAU/USD retraces back under $4,000, the structure would still be bullish as long as price holds broadly above the deeper $3,440–$3,270 accumulation band and the 200-day EMA currently around $3,730. In other words, gold could suffer a 20% correction and still remain in a powerful uptrend when viewed on a multi-year horizon.

Intraday structure in XAU/USD: $4,700 support and a $4,760–$4,800 decision zone

On the short-term charts, XAU/USD is pressing against an obvious decision area. The first reference is the former high cluster around $4,600–$4,640, which functioned as a ceiling for several sessions and is now the first key support on any pullback. Above that, today’s breakout places $4,700 as the immediate line in the sand: holding above this round number keeps momentum traders in control; losing it would confirm that profit-taking has started. On the upside, the next technical band sits in the $4,750–$4,760 region, where several elements converge: a projected upper trend channel, a modified pitchfork extension, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the January 8–12 upswing. If that band is cleared, the psychological $4,800 level comes into play as the next target. The cleanest bearish trigger is not simply touching resistance; it would be a brief spike above $4,750–$4,760 followed by a firm close back below $4,700, ideally with a large red 4-hour candle signalling that large players are distributing into the highs.

Momentum, RSI and moving averages: overextended but still trending up in XAU/USD

Momentum indicators confirm how stretched the move is, but they do not yet show a definitive topping pattern. On a 4-hour view, the Relative Strength Index for XAU/USD is hovering around 70, flirting with overbought but not collapsing. There is a mild bearish divergence versus prior peaks, which warns that upside speed is slowing even as price makes new highs. The 100-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart is still sloping higher, validating the bullish bias, while the MACD line remains above its signal line and above zero, with a still-positive histogram. On the daily chart, gold has moved roughly 20% above the 200-day EMA, which is extreme by historical standards and fully consistent with late-stage trend behaviour. In that regime, pullbacks can easily reach 10–20% without breaking the trend. The wrong approach here is assuming strong momentum means tight stops are safe; the correct interpretation is that volatility is elevated and traders need either wider risk bands or smaller position sizes, not tighter.

Cross-asset context: dollar slide, bond stress and equity selloff reinforcing gold

The macro backdrop is fully aligned with this spike in XAU/USD. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slid to roughly 98.5, down around 0.6–0.8% over two sessions as markets price a political risk premium into US assets. A daily currency performance table shows the dollar weaker against most major currencies, with the euro up about 0.63%, sterling ahead by roughly 0.35%, and the Swiss franc gaining around 0.85% versus the greenback. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.28–4.29%, its highest reading since September, while longer-duration yields in Europe and Japan are also pushing higher. Equity markets are selling off: US index futures show the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down around 1.4–1.8%, European indices such as the Stoxx 600, DAX and French benchmarks are under pressure, and volatility gauges like the VIX have jumped above 20. That cross-asset configuration – weaker dollar, higher bond yields, elevated volatility and softer equities – is precisely the kind of environment that justifies a persistent bid in gold despite the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

Silver’s surge and the broader precious metals complex as a leverage play on XAU/USD

The current move in XAU/USD is not happening in isolation; it is part of a broader melt-up in precious metals, with silver acting as a high-beta reflection of gold’s trend. Spot silver has surged to a new record around $95.3–$95.5 per ounce, with intraday gains of roughly 6.5% and a one-year performance north of 180%. The XAG/USD chart shows a clean break above prior highs near $93.50, which now act as first support, followed by deeper demand zones at $84, $72–$68, and $54–$47, where major moving averages like the 50-day EMA (~$64) and 200-day EMA (~$48) are clustered. Silver now trades about 47% above its 200-day EMA, an extension that historically sets the stage for sharp mean-reversion moves. Structurally, however, silver’s role as both industrial and monetary metal – wired into AI data centers, solar, and defence budgets – amplifies the same forces driving XAU/USD higher. Forecasts now talk openly about $100 as a short-term psychological target, $200 in optimistic 2026 scenarios, and even $375 in 2028 in extreme macro models. That kind of upside narrative in silver reinforces the idea that the entire precious complex is being repriced for a more unstable regime, rather than just reacting to a one-off headline.

Physical demand and local markets: Antam gold prices and XAU/USD feeding into each other

Physical markets confirm that the move in XAU/USD is not just a paper trade. In Indonesia, state-backed producer Aneka Tambang (Antam) has raised retail gold prices to IDR 2,705,000 per gram, up IDR 2,000 from the prior day after a IDR 40,000 jump, marking a new all-time high and beating the previous record of IDR 2,675,000 set on 15 January 2026. The buyback price is now around IDR 2,546,000 per gram. Across the bar spectrum, prices have been adjusted sharply: a 0.5-gram bar at about IDR 1,402,500, 1 gram at IDR 2,705,000, 10 grams at roughly IDR 26,545,000, up to 500 grams around IDR 1.322 billion. Those numbers reflect a physical premium being paid by local buyers who are not trading futures or CFDs; they are simply converting local currency into metal. When spot XAU/USD makes new highs and domestic prices follow instantly, it signals that both institutional flows and grassroots savings decisions are aligning in the same direction: out of fiat into bullion. For the global trend, this linkage matters because it underlines that the rally is not purely speculative; it is anchored in real-world demand that tends to be sticky rather than transient.

Macro and policy risk: Fed independence, “Sell America” flows and XAU/USD

Beyond tariffs and Greenland, XAU/USD is reacting to a deeper institutional risk: the perception that Federal Reserve independence is under political pressure. Markets are watching a US Supreme Court hearing related to Trump’s effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell planning to attend in person – an unusual step that investors read as a sign of concern over central bank autonomy. At the same time, traders are re-pricing the outlook for rate cuts. Hopes for an aggressive easing cycle have been scaled back, but instead of rallying on reduced cut expectations, the dollar is selling off because the political overlay dominates the macro narrative. Euro and sterling implied volatilities for early February have risen as hedging demand grows ahead of the February 1 tariff step, while talk of a broader “Sell America” trade is resurfacing. Large allocators are openly considering whether to reduce US exposure in favour of Europe or other regions if the transatlantic relationship deteriorates. This combination – threats to the Fed’s independence, a weaponized tariff regime, and strategic doubts about US assets – is precisely the sort of environment in which XAU/USD trades with a structural premium rather than just a cyclical bid.

Long-term projections for gold: $5,000 baseline and $6,000–$9,000 tail scenarios in XAU/USD

Forecasts for XAU/USD have shifted from cautious optimism to openly discussing four-digit dollar extensions above current levels. Major banks now cluster around $5,000 as a central case for 2026: one large US bank projects roughly $4,900 by year-end, another expects an average around $5,055 in Q4 with spikes toward $5,200–$5,300, and a third has raised its 2026 target to $5,000 with an annual average around $4,400. A prominent European institution has lifted its average forecast from $4,000 to about $4,450 on the back of continued central-bank buying and reserve diversification. More aggressive voices argue that if current stress morphs into a full-blown systemic episode, XAU/USD could overshoot these estimates. High-profile macro commentators now talk openly about $6,000 per ounce in 2026 under severe geopolitical or institutional breakdown scenarios, while some long-horizon models point to $9,000 by 2028 if gold continues to post 30–40% annual gains and the fiat system loses credibility. Those tail scenarios are not base cases, but their existence matters: they shape how large investors think about allocation ceilings. When the discussion moves from “should gold be 3–5% of the portfolio” to “should gold be 10–15%,” the demand curve for XAU/USD shifts upward for years.

Key technical levels for XAU/USD: where a 20% correction still leaves the bull intact

For trading XAU/USD, the key is separating structural levels from tactical noise. On the upside, the immediate resistance zone remains $4,750–$4,760, followed by the psychological $4,800 mark. Above that, $5,000 is both a major Fibonacci extension and a magnet level given how often it appears in institutional forecasts. On the downside, the first area to watch is $4,640–$4,600, where recent highs now act as support. Below that sits $4,360, the prior breakout zone and current location of the 50-day EMA. A drop through $4,360 would signal more than just intraday noise and open room down toward $4,000, which is the first big psychological level where many sidelined buyers will look for entries. Even a slide to $3,800–$3,730 – roughly where the 200-day EMA is running – would not break the bull market; it would represent a 20% correction inside an extended uptrend. Only a sustained move beneath the $3,730 region and especially a breach into the $3,440–$3,270 base would call the multi-year bullish structure into question. Until those deeper supports are broken, the default assumption remains that pullbacks are pauses inside an ongoing secular move higher.

Tactical playbook: sizing, instrument choice and managing XAU/USD at extremes

At current levels, the main risk in XAU/USD is not that the trend suddenly ends; it is that traders mis-size their exposure in a high-volatility environment. A structurally sound stop on the daily chart may need to sit $150–$300 below entry when gold is trading in the $4,700s and daily ranges exceed $100. Many accounts cannot carry that risk per standard contract size. That is why smaller instruments such as micro gold futures (MGC) and fractional gold products have become essential tools. They allow traders to run the wider stops that the volatility regime demands without blowing up account risk limits. Late entries into vertical moves using tight stops near $4,700–$4,760 are structurally weak: they look clean on paper but are statistically vulnerable to normal intraday noise, especially with RSI near 70 and distance to the 200-day EMA already near 20%. A disciplined approach treats the current zone as a place to trim oversized longs, hedge with options or reduce leverage, while planning to add exposure only on controlled pullbacks into well-defined support bands rather than chasing every new high.

Final stance on Gold – XAU/USD: structural bull, tactically bullish but wait for better entry

Taking all the numbers together – spot XAU/USD around $4,720–$4,737, futures near $4,725–$4,735, a 70%+ annual gain, bank targets clustering around $5,000, extreme but still intact uptrend versus the 200-day EMA, domestic markets like Antam printing record prices of IDR 2.705 million per gram, and a macro backdrop of Greenland tariffs, “Sell America” flows and Fed independence concerns – the directional verdict is clear. Gold remains a structural BUY, and the bias for XAU/USD over the next 12–24 months is still bullish, with $5,000 a realistic central target and $6,000+ a credible tail scenario if the current crisis deepens. Tactically, however, chasing fresh entries above $4,700 offers poor asymmetry. At these levels, the stance for new money is bullish but patient: treat any deep retrace toward $4,360–$4,000 as a higher-probability accumulation zone, use smaller contract sizes or micro products to keep risk sane, and avoid assuming that vertical price action will continue in a straight line. For existing longs, the data justifies holding core positions rather than exiting in panic; the main decision is how aggressively to rebalance on strength versus adding again on a 10–20% shakeout that, even if it looks brutal on headlines, would still leave the long-term XAU/USD bull market very much alive.

That's TradingNEWS