Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Surges Above $4,190 as CME Outage Ends

Gold (XAU/USD) Surges Toward $4,200 as Fed Cut Bets and CME Outage Drive Renewed Momentum

Gold Holds Above $4,140 as Traders Rebuild Confidence After CME Disruption

Gold (XAU/USD) regained firm ground on Friday, trading near $4,192 per ounce, up 0.9% on the day and 2.9% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain. Futures for February delivery settled at $4,227.60, extending gains despite a brief CME outage that froze trading across commodities and index futures. The incident temporarily widened gold’s bid-ask spread to $20 per ounce from its normal $1, reflecting thin post-Thanksgiving liquidity but ultimately reinforcing investor confidence once order books normalized.
The broader trend remains constructive: after reclaiming the $4,100 handle earlier this week, gold has consistently found strong support at $4,140 — the November 27 intraday low — while overhead resistance levels at $4,210, $4,245, and $4,400 are now back in focus. The rebound from the mid-month low near $4,025 underscores the market’s acceptance of $4,000 as a new price floor for the metal, previously a breakout threshold.

Fed Policy Expectations and Weak U.S. Data Reinforce Bullish Sentiment

The latest rally is tightly linked to the shifting Federal Reserve narrative. Dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, combined with soft consumption figures, have pushed the probability of a December rate cut to 89%, up sharply from 50% just a week ago. Treasury yields edged higher in early trading but remain near two-month lows, with the 10-year yield hovering below 3.90%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on course for its weakest monthly performance since mid-2023.
Gold’s behavior fits the classic macro pattern: as real yields retreat and the dollar weakens, non-yielding assets outperform. The metal’s 4.6% monthly rise outpaces both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, signaling that institutional portfolios are rebalancing toward defensive hard assets ahead of the Fed’s next policy pivot. Market strategists note that the December 17–18 FOMC meeting is now seen as a trigger for a broader commodity re-rating.

Central Bank Demand and Supply Constraints Tighten Global Market Structure

Beyond short-term speculation, the medium-term foundation for gold remains anchored in official-sector accumulation. Deutsche Bank this week lifted its 2026 forecast to $4,450 per ounce, up from $4,000, projecting a trading corridor between $3,950 and $4,950 amid steady central-bank purchases. The report highlights persistent demand from reserve managers in Asia and the Middle East, while mine output and scrap recycling lag behind consumption.
ETF inflows have also intensified, establishing a de facto price floor near $3,900, and global holdings are now back above 100 million ounces for the first time since early 2024. The World Gold Council estimates 1,313 tonnes of Q3 demand, a 44% YoY surge in value terms. Elevated lease rates across bullion hubs, including Zurich and London, indicate tight physical availability — a factor often preceding multi-quarter price expansions.

Silver and Platinum Strength Add Cross-Metal Confirmation

The parallel rally in precious metals adds further credibility to gold’s momentum. Silver (XAG/USD) soared 3.5% on Friday to a record $55.33 per ounce, gaining 13% in November, while platinum advanced 2.9% to $1,655, up 9.7% for the week. Analysts at Kitco Metals highlight that silver’s technical setup — with MACD and RSI both in bullish territory — is pulling speculative long positioning into the sector, indirectly supporting gold through cross-market inflows.
Platinum and palladium’s weekly advances of 9.7% and 10.7%, respectively, also signal industrial demand recovery, reinforcing gold’s relative attractiveness as a liquidity hedge rather than a purely safe-haven play. In prior cycles, multi-metal rallies of this breadth preceded sustained uptrends lasting two to three quarters.

India’s and Dubai’s Price Divergence Reflects Strong Retail and Institutional Demand

Physical demand dynamics remain uneven but resilient. In India, 24-carat gold climbed to ₹126,420 per 10 grams, up ₹470 (+0.37%) on the day, while 22-carat stood at ₹115,885. That represents a 12.06% premium over Dubai’s 24-carat rate of ₹112,816, reflecting import duties and strong local demand during the wedding season. Major Indian cities — including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, and Bengaluru — reported synchronized price gains of ₹430–₹470, mirroring rising wholesale premiums.
Dubai’s bullion trade also tightened, with 24-carat at AED 474.5, following the global benchmark’s move above $4,180. The retail-wholesale spread narrowed as regional ETF allocations increased. Despite high prices, jewelers report limited substitution into silver or platinum, underscoring gold’s continued dominance as a store of value.

Technical and Quantitative Setup: Momentum Builds Above $4,100

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators remain strongly bullish. On the 4-hour XAU/USD chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers above 60, confirming sustained buying pressure, while the MACD line continues to rise above the signal level. The completion of the bearish correction from the November 14 high at $4,210 and subsequent reclamation of $4,100 signal renewed upside control.
A confirmed breakout above $4,245 would likely open the path toward $4,400, where several derivative options expiries are clustered. Conversely, only a break below $4,140 — the recent intraday pivot — would indicate short-term fatigue. Yet, with open interest in COMEX futures increasing by 3.8% this week, the market remains structurally biased to the upside. CME’s restored platform now shows positioning dominated by net longs exceeding 380,000 contracts, the highest since August 2020.

Macro Outlook: 2026 Forecasts Push Toward $4,900 as Rate-Cut Cycle Nears

Institutional forecasts continue to migrate upward. Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, citing synchronized monetary easing across major economies and aggressive central-bank diversification out of U.S. Treasuries. Economy Middle East reports that Deutsche Bank’s upper-range scenario implies a 14% premium over current December 2026 futures, with the 2027 target reaching $5,150.
These targets reflect growing conviction that gold will benefit not only from rate cuts but also from structural factors: de-dollarization of reserves, record ETF holdings, and constrained mining growth. The forward curve in COMEX now prices 12-month implied volatility at 15.4%, its highest in two years, suggesting that while corrections may be sharp, the longer-term skew remains decisively bullish.

Investor Positioning and Sentiment

Gold’s 12-month gain now stands at 60.9%, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite (+48%) and the MSCI World Index (+39%). The latest Fear and Greed Index has shifted into “Extreme Fear,” which historically aligns with peaks in gold inflows as equity risk appetite fades. Retail accumulation in ETFs rose 6.2% in November, while physical delivery requests on COMEX increased 18% month-over-month.
However, in major Asian markets like China, the removal of a tax exemption on gold purchases has slightly dampened consumer buying. Institutional allocations continue to offset that drag, with sovereign wealth funds and monetary authorities sustaining demand across the Gulf and East Asia.

TradingNews.com Verdict

Gold (XAU/USD) remains firmly in a structural bull phase, supported by macro, technical, and institutional dynamics. With $4,140 acting as a clear pivot and $4,400–$4,450 emerging as the next resistance corridor, the trend bias stays positive into year-end. Central-bank accumulation, weakening yields, and persistent supply constraints form the core of this momentum.
Verdict: BUY — short-term upside toward $4,400, medium-term extension toward $4,900 in 2026. Maintain exposure through physical, ETF, or futures positions with risk managed below $4,100.

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