Natural Gas Price (NG=F) Rises Toward $4.60 as Cold Weather and Record LNG Exports

Natural Gas (NG=F) Gains Momentum as Winter Demand Tightens Storage and LNG Exports Surge

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Strengthen Above $4.60/MMBtu Amid Seasonal Buying

Natural Gas (NG=F) prices continue to climb sharply, trading around $4.58/MMBtu on November 27, 2025, after rebounding from a mid-November low near $3.70/MMBtu. The move represents one of the strongest November performances since 2021. Market data show traders pricing in both an early-season cold front and record U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub advanced nearly 25% over the month as weather models shifted toward colder winter expectations, while futures volume rose sharply before Thanksgiving despite lighter holiday trading.

Storage Draw and Supply Balance Support Price Upside

The EIA reported a withdrawal of 11 Bcf from U.S. underground storage for the week ending November 21 — a smaller draw than the five-year average of 25 Bcf, but still a signal that the winter drawdown phase has started. Total working gas in storage now stands at approximately 3.94 Tcf, roughly 5% above the five-year average. Despite this comfortable inventory level, traders note that the pace of withdrawals could accelerate if December temperatures remain below seasonal norms. Production remains near record levels of 110 Bcf/d, but the combination of exports and heating demand is starting to narrow the margin between supply and consumption.

LNG Exports Hit Record Levels, Driving Structural Demand Growth

LNG feed-gas deliveries are running above 14 Bcf/d, up more than 25% year-on-year, as U.S. export terminals operate at full capacity. Cheniere Energy and Venture Global are leading shipments toward European and Asian buyers facing tight winter gas markets. The U.S. now accounts for more than 40% of global LNG supply, and November marked the first month in history where exports exceeded 10 million tonnes. This surge is underpinning domestic demand and absorbing excess production from the Permian and Marcellus basins. Analysts note that each additional 1 Bcf/d of LNG exports removes roughly 0.3% of total storage flexibility, magnifying the market’s sensitivity to cold-weather spikes.

Weather Models and Technical Momentum Align for Bullish Setup

Short-term momentum indicators show natural gas consolidating in a bullish channel between $4.20 – $4.70/MMBtu, with a potential breakout target near $5.00 if colder weather persists into early December. The 50-day EMA sits around $4.05 and continues to slope upward, while RSI readings near 63 suggest room for further upside before overbought conditions appear. Technicians highlight that each prior break above the $4.60 threshold in 2023 and 2021 preceded rallies of 8 – 12%, implying that current price action could test the $5 region quickly if next week’s EIA report shows a larger draw above 20 Bcf.

Regional and International Price Trends Reflect Global Tightness

Spot market data from Türkiye’s Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) showed 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas priced at 14,455.02 liras, up 15.9% day-on-day, equivalent to roughly $340 per MWh at the current 42.45 lira/USD exchange rate. Pipeline imports into Türkiye reached 193.68 million m³ on November 26, demonstrating strong regional demand despite currency pressure. In Europe, the Dutch TTF benchmark hovers around $9.90/MMBtu, subdued relative to the 2022 crisis but stable due to steady LNG arrivals. Asia’s JKM benchmark climbed above $12.50 on renewed Chinese and Japanese buying interest, creating strong arbitrage incentives for U.S. exporters.

North American Fundamentals Remain Mixed

Canadian storage is near all-time highs, but AECO spot prices have recovered to roughly CA$ 2.50/GJ, aided by the approaching winter and new capacity from LNG Canada. Alberta’s export pipeline volumes to the U.S. Midwest are up 6% month-on-month, offsetting weaker domestic consumption. In contrast, U.S. regions like Algonquin Citygate and Tennessee Zone 6 show spot prices between $2.91 – $3.06, while FGT Citygate remains discounted at –$3.81 due to mild southeastern weather. Analysts expect this regional divergence to compress once colder air masses move east in early December.

Investment Flows Shift Toward Carbon Markets as LNG Expansion Looms

Amid expectations of an LNG oversupply beginning 2026, hedge funds have started reallocating exposure from natural gas futures to EU carbon allowances, viewing them as a more direct bet on tighter emission policies. However, long-term investors remain positioned for structural LNG growth: Tokyo Gas recently committed to a 20-year contract to import 1 MTPA from Venture Global starting 2030, reinforcing the Japan-U.S. energy link. At the same time, U.S. pipeline expansions such as WhiteWater’s Eiger Express to 3.7 Bcf/d capacity highlight continued infrastructure investment supporting the bullish demand outlook.

Macro Context and Forward Outlook

TD Economics projects Henry Hub prices averaging $4.20/MMBtu in Q1 2025 and $3.93/MMBtu for 2026, before easing slightly to $3.53 in 2027 as new supply from Canada and Qatar enters the market. Yet in the near term, fundamentals lean bullish: storage draws are beginning, exports are climbing, and winter temperatures remain a key wildcard. With production growth plateauing and export demand entrenched, the market’s margin for error is narrowing fast. Traders should anticipate heightened volatility through Q1 2026, with potential tests of $5.00 – $5.25/MMBtu if cold fronts persist and LNG flows remain above 14 Bcf/d.

Verdict — Bullish Bias, Volatile Trajectory

Natural Gas (NG=F) retains a bullish short-term bias, supported by strong export fundamentals, tightening winter storage, and resilient technical momentum. However, sustained prices above $5 require either a severe winter or unplanned production interruptions. For now, the commodity remains a Buy on dips between $4.00 – $4.25/MMBtu, targeting $5.00 as the next resistance level before potential profit-taking.

Thta's TradingNEWS