Gold Price Stalls at $3,335 as Traders Await Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Gold Price XAU/USD Balances Between Geopolitics and Powell’s Signal

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around $3,335–$3,345 as markets wait for Jerome Powell’s keynote at Jackson Hole. Friday’s Alaska summit between Trump, Zelensky, and European leaders did little more than remove escalation risks — Commerzbank notes the “geopolitical premium” is easing, which typically caps upside in safe-haven assets. Unless Powell delivers a distinctly dovish tilt, traders are cautious about chasing fresh highs.

Price Anchored in Tight Range Ahead of Breakout Test

Spot gold is trapped under $3,358–$3,360 resistance, while repeatedly bouncing at $3,325 support, forming a narrowing wedge. A break above $3,360 would open $3,374 and potentially $3,405, while a decisive slip below $3,325 targets $3,312–$3,287. The 4-hour RSI sits near 44, neutral-bearish, and MACD momentum remains negative. Bulls point to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3,355 as a critical line to defend.

Dollar and Treasury Yields Dictate Short-Term Flows

The DXY fell 0.1%, offering short-term relief for gold. Treasury yields are flat-to-lower, with the 10-year at 4.324% and 2-year at 3.761%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. But unless the dollar weakens further, gold’s ability to push through resistance remains limited.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Already Priced In

Fed fund futures show an 83–84% probability of a 25bp cut in September, with markets even penciling in a second cut by year-end and three more in 2026. That backdrop means Powell would need to sound “extremely dovish” to trigger a breakout above $3,360. If he downplays inflation risks, gold could rally quickly; if he leans hawkish, a return to $3,305–$3,287 becomes likely.

Macro Layer: Consumer Spending and Tariffs

Yahoo Finance notes gold futures opened at $3,378.30, up 1.4% from the prior day and a staggering 28.3% higher year-to-date. But much of that move reflects investor hedging against Trump’s tariff-driven consumer shifts. Retail earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot this week will be closely watched as proxies for household resilience. With July consumption expected flat at +0.3%, weaker data could reignite defensive demand for gold.

Historical Context and Forecasts Into 2026

Gold is up 34.7% YoY from $2,508.50 (Aug 2024), a historic surge comparable to 2009–2011. Analysts are split on the next leg: Goldman Sachs projects $3,700/oz by year-end 2025, while UBS raised its target to $3,600 by March 2026. Both forecasts rely on continued central bank accumulation and US political uncertainty. Yet Commerzbank warns that the geopolitical premium could fade if Ukraine peace talks accelerate, reducing safe-haven demand.

Verdict — Neutral with Tactical Bias

At $3,335–$3,345, gold is sitting in the eye of the storm. Technicals are balanced — neither bulls nor bears have full control. Powell’s Jackson Hole tone is the decisive catalyst: a dovish speech could fuel a rally toward $3,374–$3,405, while hawkish caution risks a flush toward $3,305–$3,287. For now, the position is Neutral/Hold, but tactical traders can buy dips above $3,325 with stops below $3,287, targeting $3,374+. Longer-term investors remain covered by the bullish macro case projecting $3,600–$3,700 over the next 12 months.

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