Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Steadies at $3,663, Eyes $3,700 Breakout

Gold Price Today: XAU/USD Consolidates Above $3,660 as Fed Cut Bets Drive Momentum

The gold price (XAU/USD) continues to trade firmly above $3,660 per ounce, showing resilience in a week dominated by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. As of Monday’s session, COMEX futures quoted gold at $3,697.60, up 0.30% intraday, while spot prices hovered at $3,663, unchanged from Sunday’s close. Over the last month, the metal has surged nearly 10%, climbing from $3,346 in mid-August to current levels, and is up 43% year-on-year compared to $2,568 in September 2024.

Fed Policy Outlook Anchors Gold at Record Territory

Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with a slim chance of a larger 50-point reduction. Such a move would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and potentially extend the rally. Analysts note that weaker job creation, cooling PPI data, and dovish signals from policymakers reinforce the bullish case. Historical precedents show gold tends to outperform when monetary easing combines with lingering inflation risks, conditions that are clearly present in late 2025.

Resistance at $3,700 and Technical Signals in Play

The next critical threshold for XAU/USD is $3,700 per ounce, with intraday resistance observed at $3,696–$3,700. A decisive daily close above this level could ignite a fresh leg higher, with chart models suggesting upside toward $3,750–$3,800 in the coming weeks. On the downside, immediate support rests at $3,640, followed by the 50-day EMA near $3,600. Momentum indicators remain supportive: RSI readings above 60 show sustained strength, while moving average crossovers from late August confirm the underlying bullish trend.

Central Bank and Government Demand Reinforces Structural Support

Global central banks remain aggressive buyers, with net additions exceeding 1,000 tons year-to-date, and government reserves now surpassing $1.6 trillion in market value. This sovereign demand, concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, acts as a stabilizing force. Indonesia’s Antam gold benchmark hit Rp 2,095,000 per gram ($127.7), marking a domestic record, while China and India continue to import heavily to protect against currency depreciation. These flows underscore why gold’s rally has been broad-based rather than speculative.

Macroeconomic Drivers: Inflation, Trade Tensions, and Bond Yields

The broader macro landscape also favors bullion. U.S. inflation remains sticky, with consumer prices rising faster than expected in August, and tariff policies under President Trump intensifying fears of imported cost pressures. Simultaneously, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated toward 4%, reflecting both demand for safe havens and easing credit conditions. Historically, such declines in bond yields correlate with stronger gold prices, as investors rotate from fixed income into commodities as inflation hedges.

Comparison With Other Precious Metals

While gold leads, other metals show mixed performance. Silver trades at $42 per ounce, up sharply in 2025 but still prone to volatility given its industrial demand. Platinum holds at $1,395, while palladium sits at $1,189. The spread between gold’s ask and bid has narrowed as liquidity deepens, signaling robust demand. Among the metals basket, only gold has delivered consistent safe-haven flows through both geopolitical risk and monetary policy shifts, reinforcing its dominance as the primary hedge asset.

Investor Behavior: Distribution or Accumulation?

Despite the rally, data shows some investors are booking profits. ETF spreads widened last week, indicating selling pressure at the margins, yet spot inflows remained strong. Gold ETFs collectively recorded $8.7 billion of inflows in the past month, reversing outflows from the first half of 2025. This bifurcation suggests long-term investors are holding firm while short-term traders rotate capital into equities ahead of Fed guidance. The balance between distribution and accumulation will be decisive for whether XAU/USD can establish $3,700 as durable support.

Strategic Assessment: Buy, Sell, or Hold for XAU/USD

Given the convergence of record ETF inflows, aggressive central bank purchases, and a nearly certain Fed rate cut, the structural case for gold remains powerful. Near-term volatility around $3,640–$3,700 is expected, but the weight of institutional demand and macro headwinds point higher. At $3,663 per ounce, gold (XAU/USD) is a Buy, with targets toward $3,750–$3,800 in Q4, though traders should monitor downside risks if Fed rhetoric shifts unexpectedly hawkish or inflation surprises ease pressure on yields.

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