JPM Reverses 3% Premarket Drop to $336.40 as 20% ROTCE and $107B 2027 NII Outlook Offset a $0.33 Miss

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) traded at $336.40 on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, up $2.10 or 0.63% from Monday’s close of $334.30, on 5.36 million shares by mid-morning. The stock reversed sharply after the earnings release. JPM fell 3% in early premarket trading as the headline numbers missed on both earnings and revenue. Within hours, the stock was at $339.00 premarket, up 1.35%, and later $338.35, up 1.21%, before settling into a smaller gain after the open.

The miss was real but narrow. JPMorgan reported third-quarter net income of $15.3 billion, or $5.57 per share, against a consensus of $5.90. Excluding $658 million of net investment securities losses, the bank earned $5.75 per share, still short of the $5.93 adjusted forecast. Reported revenue rose 8% to $50.2 billion, from $46.4 billion a year earlier, below the $51.23 billion expected. Managed revenue reached $50.9 billion.

The guidance carried the day. JPMorgan raised its full-year 2026 net interest income outlook to about $106.2 billion from $105.5 billion, and its NII excluding Markets to about $97.2 billion from $96.5 billion. It gave a preliminary central case of roughly $107 billion of NII excluding Markets for 2027, driven by balance sheet growth and higher rates. In a rising-rate environment, NII is the engine of the franchise.

The stock sits in the middle of its range. JPM trades about 7.7% below its 52-week high of $366.50 and about 21.2% above its 52-week low of $279.10. It closed at $332.99 on Friday, October 9, and has drifted roughly 1% lower since the July report, even as profits ran at record levels.

The thesis for this forecast is direct: JPMorgan missed a high bar, not a low one. Return on tangible common equity of 20% beat the 17% through-cycle target, NII guidance rose, and every business grew revenue. The market is looking through a $0.33 headline miss driven by securities losses and higher expenses toward a bank that management says can redeploy $30 billion of excess capital at better returns than its own stock. The $334.30 level needs to hold. A move through $339 opens a path back toward the $366.50 high.

Q3 2026 Numbers: $15.3 Billion of Net Income, 20% ROTCE, $27.3 Billion of Expenses

The full quarter shows a bank earning at high levels even as costs climbed. Net income rose 6% to $15.3 billion from $14.4 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share grew 10% to $5.57 from $5.07, helped by a lower share count after heavy buybacks over the past year. ROTCE came in at 20%.

Revenue rose across the board. Net interest income climbed 13% to $27.1 billion. Noninterest revenue rose 3% to $23.8 billion. Excluding the $658 million of securities losses in Corporate, revenue rose 9%, driven by markets revenue, higher deposit balances and higher asset management fees.

Expenses were the main drag. Noninterest expense rose 12% to $27.3 billion, faster than revenue growth of 8%. CFO Jeremy Barnum attributed the increase to higher volume and revenue-related expense, front office hiring and wage inflation. That gap between expense growth and revenue growth is the single biggest reason the quarter missed consensus.

Credit costs rose. Total credit costs were $2.7 billion, including $2.2 billion of net charge-offs and a $539 million net reserve build. Barnum said the wholesale reserve build came from new lending activity, not downgrades or a change in outlook.

The securities losses were tied to the bond rout. The $658 million of net investment securities losses came as Treasury yields surged during the quarter, with the 10-year now at 5.22% after hitting its highest level since 2002. Corporate reported a net loss of $455 million on revenue of $93 million.

The quarter compares poorly with a spectacular second quarter. In Q2, JPMorgan earned $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, a 41% increase that included a $4.6 billion gain related to Visa shares and $1.0 billion of equity investment gains. Excluding those items, Q2 adjusted EPS was $6.14, well above the $5.59 consensus. Q1 earned $16.5 billion, or $5.94 per share. Against that backdrop, Q3’s sequential decline in markets and investment banking revenue made the headline look weaker.

For the forecast, the quarter is a miss in shape but not in substance. The bank earned 20% on tangible equity, grew revenue in every segment and raised NII guidance. The expense line is the variable to watch.

Net Interest Income at $27.1 Billion: Guidance Rises to $106.2 Billion for 2026, $107 Billion Ex-Markets for 2027

Net interest income is the bright spot. Managed NII rose 13% to $27.1 billion in the third quarter, driven by higher Markets NII, deposit growth and card balances. Rising rates are working for JPMorgan, not against it.

The guidance raise was the market’s focus. For the fourth quarter, JPMorgan guided to NII excluding Markets of about $25.5 billion and total NII of about $28 billion. That implies full-year 2026 total NII of about $106.2 billion, up from $105.5 billion, and NII excluding Markets of about $97.2 billion, up from $96.5 billion. Before July, total NII guidance had been around $103 billion.

The 2027 outlook adds visibility. JPMorgan gave a central case of about $107 billion of NII excluding Markets for 2027. Barnum walked through the math: annualizing the fourth-quarter $25.5 billion gives roughly $102 billion, so the bank is guiding to about $5 billion of growth. About a quarter of that comes from the yield curve, with forward pricing showing one Fed hike in December and two more in the first half of 2027. The rest reflects continued balance sheet growth: modest consumer deposit growth, continued wholesale deposit growth and steady card loans.

JPMorgan remains asset-sensitive. Barnum said the bank is probably a little more asset-sensitive than its earnings-at-risk disclosure shows, because consumer deposit betas have come in lower than modeled. That means higher rates add more to NII than the models imply.

The Fed’s path supports the guidance. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. Fed funds futures price a 21% chance of an October hike and an 88% chance by December. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued Monday for a relatively quick move to a more restrictive stance. Each hike adds to JPMorgan’s NII.

Dimon flagged the uncertainty. He said there is more uncertainty around the $107 billion number than normal because of global conditions, and that the bank can change its balance sheet at any time.

For the forecast, NII is the floor under JPM earnings. A bank guiding to $106.2 billion of NII this year and $107 billion excluding Markets next year has visible earnings power regardless of trading or deal volatility.

Corporate & Investment Bank: $22.7 Billion of Revenue, Equities Up 49%, FICC Down 4%

The Corporate & Investment Bank delivered the largest profit pool. CIB reported net income of $8.2 billion on revenue of $22.7 billion, up 14% year over year. It contributed more than half of the firm’s quarterly profit.

Equities trading was the standout. Equities revenue jumped 49% to $5.0 billion, with continued strength in prime brokerage and derivatives. Hedge fund leverage and heavy client activity in volatile markets drove the gain. Barnum described client demand for balance sheet in equities as effectively unlimited.

Fixed income lagged. FICC revenue fell 4% year over year, with lower revenue in commodities, rates and credit, partly offset by higher client flows in currencies and emerging markets. The bond rout that pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 5.2% made rates and credit trading harder.

Total markets revenue rose 15% to $10.3 billion, slightly short of expectations. It fell from the second quarter, when equities revenue surged 86% to $6.0 billion on major IPOs and strong Asian markets.

Investment banking fees rose 14% year over year, led by advisory. That compares with a 21% increase at Goldman Sachs, which reported the same morning. JPMorgan’s IB fees fell 8% from the second quarter.

The pipeline is the open question. Barnum said evolving market conditions have slowed activity a bit, with a slowdown visible in the second half of September as the rate selloff gave buyers and sellers a reason to pause on valuations. Dimon described the pipeline as an accordion that can open and close quickly. He said U.S. deals look delayed, while the European pipeline is healthy, especially for IPOs. Barnum had earlier described deals as delayed, not canceled.

Dimon broke from the house view on the fourth quarter. Barnum said the base case assumes normal seasonal declines in markets revenue from the third to the fourth quarter. Dimon said he personally expects a smaller seasonal decline than usual because there is too much happening in the world.

For the forecast, the CIB is a source of upside. If Dimon is right about the fourth quarter and the deal pipeline reopens after the rate selloff, Q4 estimates have room to rise.

Consumer & Community Banking: $5.7 Billion of Profit, 650,000 New Checking Accounts

The consumer franchise was steady. Consumer & Community Banking reported net income of $5.7 billion on revenue of $21.2 billion, up 9% year over year. Growth came from higher card balances and yields, asset management fees, deposit balances and auto lease income.

Customer acquisition was exceptionally strong. CCB added about 650,000 net new checking accounts in the quarter. Deposits grew 4% year over year, and JPMorgan kept its No. 1 position in U.S. retail deposit share. Barnum said consumer deposit growth has reasserted itself as yield-seeking flows have faded.

Spending held up. Combined debit and credit card spending grew 10% year over year, with momentum across categories including gas and travel. Client investment assets crossed $1.4 trillion, up 15%.

The consumer remains healthy, for now. Barnum said consumer credit is healthy primarily because of a strong labor market. He warned that if the Fed needs an aggressive, extended rate cycle to cool inflation, that would almost by definition involve higher unemployment, which would weaken consumer credit. JPMorgan continues to expect a card net charge-off rate of about 3.2%.

The labor market is softening at the edges. September payrolls rose just 29,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. A sustained rise in unemployment would push card losses above the 3.2% guide.

Higher rates pose a deposit question. Barnum said higher rates would normally push some customers from checking and savings into CDs and premium deposits, raising the bank’s average cost of deposits. He said he does not believe all the cash sorting has already happened, and he expects a little additional pressure. The strong account growth offsets part of that risk.

AI agents are a new competitive threat that management addressed directly. Personal financial agents that move cash on behalf of customers drew attention this quarter and briefly hit bank stocks. JPMorgan launched a targeted pilot called Smart Cash in recent weeks. Dimon said the bank will not allow outside agents into its systems because of customer risk.

For the forecast, CCB is the stable earnings base. As long as unemployment stays near 4.2%, consumer credit holds and deposit growth continues.

Asset & Wealth Management: $5.2 Trillion of AUM, $51 Billion of Inflows

Asset & Wealth Management posted another strong quarter. AWM reported net income of $1.8 billion on revenue of $6.9 billion, up 14% year over year. Pretax margin reached 36%.

Inflows drove the growth. Long-term net inflows were $51 billion, led by fixed income. Assets under management reached $5.2 trillion, up 13%, and client assets reached $7.9 trillion, up 15%. Higher market levels and continued inflows both contributed.

Fixed income flows reflect the rate environment. With 10-year Treasury yields above 5.2%, the highest since 2002, investors are moving money into bonds. AWM’s fixed income franchise is capturing that shift.

AWM is a steady fee business. Management fees rise with asset levels and inflows, not with trading volatility. That provides a stable earnings stream that partly offsets swings in markets and investment banking.

The equity market backdrop is supportive. The S&P 500 trades near 7,800, up roughly 14% this year. Higher asset prices lift AUM and management fees. A sharp market decline would reverse that, but AWM’s fixed income inflows would likely continue in a higher-rate world.

Peer comparison favors the wealth model. Goldman Sachs’ Asset & Wealth Management unit reported record management fees of $3.6 billion, up 22%. Wealth and asset management is growing across the industry as aging populations and higher rates drive savings into managed products.

For the forecast, AWM is a growing, high-margin contributor that supports JPMorgan’s premium valuation. It rarely drives the stock on earnings day but compounds steadily.

Capital: $30 Billion of Excess, Buybacks Cut to $664 Million, CET1 at 13.9%

The capital story changed this quarter. JPMorgan bought back a net $664 million of stock, down from $6.2 billion in the second quarter. Analysts noted the drop from a typical cadence of around $7 billion a quarter.

Dimon explained the shift. He said the bank has roughly $30 billion of excess capital and that the capital hierarchy remains the same: pay the dividend, invest in organic growth, then buy back stock. The difference, he said, is that the bank now believes it can redeploy that capital at very good returns over time, which is far better than buying its own stock at an earnings yield of around 6%.

The redeployment is already underway. Dimon pointed to the bank’s Security and Resiliency Initiative, which aims to deploy $1.5 trillion over 10 years. He said the first year is probably already above $200 billion. He also cited the American Dream Initiative, the innovation economy initiative and international commercial banking.

Capital ratios fell. The standardized CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 13.9%, down 30 basis points from the prior quarter, as net income was more than offset by losses in other comprehensive income from the bond rout, higher risk-weighted assets and capital distributions. Standardized RWA rose about $52 billion, mainly from higher lending and the impact of higher energy prices and market volatility. Barnum noted the CET1 ratio had been near 15.7% before the current deployment phase began.

Regulation is a tailwind. Basel III endgame and GSIB surcharge rules are expected to be finalized by year-end. Dimon said the reduced buyback has nothing to do with those rules or with AOCI losses. Lighter final rules would free more capital.

The dividend remains intact. JPMorgan has paid dividends for 56 consecutive years, with a current yield of 1.97%.

The market’s read on lower buybacks is mixed. Buybacks support the share price directly. Lower buybacks remove that support. But Dimon’s argument is that organic deployment at high returns builds more value than buybacks at current valuations. The stock’s recovery from its premarket low suggests investors accepted the argument.

For the forecast, the capital shift is a modest near-term headwind but a long-term positive. With $30 billion of excess capital and a CET1 ratio of 13.9%, JPMorgan has ample room to grow and resume buybacks if the stock falls.

Dimon’s Warning: Deficits, Sticky Inflation and Rising Rates ‘Shift Under the Surface’

Dimon’s outlook was cautious. He said that large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions continue to shift beneath the surface, even as the U.S. economy stays strong on business investment and consumer spending. He added that these forces may be manageable, but the bank remains prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

He was asked directly about a 10-year Treasury yield of 6% and further Fed hikes. Dimon said the bank prepares for all scenarios without predicting them. He said such a move could happen for good reasons, like strong demand for capital and productivity, or bad ones, like sticky inflation worldwide. He said he has always thought the odds are higher than others believe.

The rate backdrop gives that warning weight. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.22% after reaching its highest since 2002 last week. UK 30-year gilts topped 6% for the first time since 1998. Oil prices are elevated, with Brent above $105 and WTI near $94, and gasoline has tied its 2022 record for days above $4 a gallon.

Dimon is tightening credit. He said some credit terms have become loose, with too much leverage, weak covenants and aggressive structures, and that the bank does not need to chase that business. Barnum said the AI investment theme is everywhere in the capital markets, from construction lending to working capital lines, and the bank is running stresses to test resilience to a major shift in AI sentiment.

Corporate credit is stable but under pressure. Barnum said corporate balance sheets are in good shape, but energy prices, fuel costs and higher rates are building pressure across commercial and industrial lending and commercial real estate. Middle-market clients are coping, he said, but the diesel situation and input costs are tough for them.

The ROTCE target stays at 17%. Asked why the bank keeps a 17% target while earning 20% to 21%, Dimon said 17% is a through-the-cycle number. Barnum noted that every business is currently performing exceptionally well, which is not typical by historical standards. Dimon added that conditions are good with high volumes, high asset prices and low credit losses, but no one knows when that will stop.

For the forecast, Dimon’s caution is a feature, not a bug. It keeps expectations grounded and preserves JPMorgan’s reputation for conservative management. But it also signals that the bank sees risks the market may be underpricing.

Bank Peers: Goldman’s Blowout, Citi’s Beat, Wells Fargo’s Provision Jump

JPMorgan reported alongside three major peers Tuesday, and the comparison puts its miss in context. Goldman Sachs earned $17.01 per share, crushing the $13.09 consensus by 30%, on revenue of $18.68 billion, up 23%. Its equities revenue jumped 72% to $6.44 billion and advisory hit a record $1.654 billion. Goldman shares rose as much as 4.2% premarket before fading.

Citigroup beat as well. Citi earned $5.2 billion, or $2.85 per share, on revenue of $23.8 billion, topping the $2.67 consensus for a 10th straight beat. EPS rose 53% year over year. Citi’s CET1 ratio stood at 12.8%, and it returned $4.1 billion to shareholders.

Wells Fargo was mixed. Wells earned $5.95 billion, or $1.87 per share, up 13%, on revenue up 2% to $21.87 billion. NII rose 5% to $12.52 billion. But its provision for credit losses jumped 51% to $1.029 billion, and its net interest margin fell 18 basis points to 2.43%. Its CET1 ratio fell to 10.0% from 11.0% a year earlier.

JPMorgan’s miss stands out against Goldman and Citi. The difference is scale and mix. Goldman’s earnings are dominated by trading and investment banking, where activity was strong. JPMorgan’s diversified model includes a $5.7 billion consumer bank, a $1.8 billion wealth business and a balance sheet that absorbed $658 million of securities losses. Diversification smooths results but limits upside in a trading-heavy quarter.

The trading comparison favors Goldman. JPMorgan’s equities revenue rose 49% to $5.0 billion, against Goldman’s 72% to $6.44 billion. JPMorgan’s IB fees rose 14%, against Goldman’s 21%. In the businesses where the two compete directly, Goldman gained share this quarter.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley report Wednesday. BofA fell 1.16% to $53.94 Monday ahead of its report. Their results will show whether JPMorgan’s expense pressure is firm-specific or industry-wide.

The sector backdrop is soft. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has fallen 8.4% over three months against a 3% gain in the S&P 500. The Financial Select Sector SPDR, XLF, is up just 0.22% year to date. Bank stocks have lagged despite strong earnings, weighed down by rate volatility and AOCI losses.

For the forecast, JPMorgan’s relative position is solid but not dominant this quarter. Its 20% ROTCE still exceeds most peers, and its NII guidance raise distinguishes it from Wells Fargo’s margin compression.

Valuation: 13.1x Run-Rate Earnings, $911 Billion Market Cap, Premium to Peers

JPMorgan trades at a premium, and the premium is earned. At $336.40, the stock carries a market capitalization of about $911 billion. Return on equity stands near 18%.

The earnings math is straightforward. Through the first three quarters of 2026, JPMorgan earned $5.94, $7.70 and $5.57 per share, for a total of $19.21. Annualized, that run rate is about $25.61 per share. At $336.40, the stock trades at roughly 13.1 times that run rate. On Q3 alone, annualized at $22.28, the multiple is 15.1 times.

The Q2 figure includes one-time gains. Q2’s $7.70 included the $4.6 billion Visa gain and $1.0 billion of equity investment gains. On an adjusted basis, Q2 earned $6.14. Using adjusted figures of $5.94, $6.14 and $5.75 gives $17.83 for nine months, or about $23.77 annualized. On that basis, JPM trades at about 14.2 times run-rate earnings.

That fits Dimon’s own math. He said the bank’s own stock carries an earnings yield of around 6%, which implies a multiple near 16 to 17 times forward earnings depending on the estimate. Either way, JPM trades at a premium to most U.S. banks.

The premium reflects quality. JPMorgan’s 20% ROTCE, diversified earnings, No. 1 retail deposit share, $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities and $30 billion of excess capital justify a higher multiple than peers. Citigroup, with a lower return profile, trades at a much lower multiple. Wells Fargo is still recovering from years of regulatory constraints.

Options priced a large move. Options markets priced an earnings reaction of ±3.4% to ±5.2% before the report. JPM’s average first-session move after earnings over the past 12 quarters has been ±2.5%. Tuesday’s 0.63% gain is well within that range.

The stock’s earnings-day history is mixed. JPM has beaten EPS estimates in many quarters and still closed lower the next day about half the time. After the July report, when Q2 profits hit a record, the stock fell. This time, the stock is rising after a miss. The market rewards guidance and capital, not the headline number.

For the forecast, valuation is fair, not cheap. The stock does not need multiple expansion to rise; it needs earnings to grow. NII guidance of $106.2 billion and a 2027 central case of $107 billion excluding Markets give that growth visibility.

Technical Map: $334.30 Floor, $339 Trigger, $366.50 High

The chart shows a stock recovering from a premarket shakeout. JPM opened the session in a wide range, dropping roughly 3% premarket before recovering to $339.00 and settling near $336.40.

The support levels are clear. The first is $334.30, Monday’s close and the level the stock needs to hold to keep the post-earnings reaction positive. The second is $332.38 to $332.99, the October 2 and October 9 closes, which define the pre-earnings base. A premarket low near $324, about 3% below Monday’s close, marks the session’s extreme. Below that, $300 is a round-number support, and $279.10 is the 52-week low.

The resistance levels are layered. The first is $339.00, the premarket high. A move through $339 would signal that buyers are extending the reversal. The second is $345, then $350 as round-number resistance. The third is $366.50, the 52-week high and the main upside target.

The distance math from $336.40 sets the risk-reward. Upside to $339 is $2.60, or 0.8%. Upside to $350 is $13.60, or 4.0%. Upside to $366.50 is $30.10, or 8.9%. Downside to $334.30 is $2.10, or 0.6%. Downside to $332.38 is $4.02, or 1.2%. Downside to $300 is $36.40, or 10.8%.

The intraday reversal is a positive signal. A stock that falls 3% on a headline miss and then rallies into positive territory shows that buyers were waiting for the dip. That reversal suggests institutional demand at lower levels.

Volume confirms interest. JPM traded 5.36 million shares in the first portion of the session, an active pace for a stock of its size. Sustained volume on the upside would confirm the reversal.

The post-earnings drift is the next test. The first checkpoint is Friday, October 16, three sessions after the report. If the stock holds above $334.30 through Friday, the reaction is likely to extend. If it falls back below $332, the reversal would be reversed.

For the forecast, the chart favors buyers above $334.30. A close above $339 opens the path to $350 and eventually the $366.50 high.

Catalysts: CPI Wednesday, BofA and Morgan Stanley, the Fed on October 28

Several catalysts will shape JPM’s path in the coming weeks.

The first is Wednesday’s U.S. CPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. A hot print would push rate expectations higher, which supports NII but adds to AOCI losses and credit risk. A soft print would ease rate pressure, help bond values and support deal activity. For JPMorgan, the net effect of moderate rate increases is positive because the bank is asset-sensitive, but a disorderly move toward a 6% 10-year yield would raise credit concerns.

The second is Wednesday’s results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. BofA’s numbers will show whether consumer deposit pressure and expense growth are industry-wide. Morgan Stanley’s will show whether the equities trading boom extended across Wall Street.

The third is the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. Markets price a 21% chance of a hike. A hike would add to JPMorgan’s NII. The December meeting, with 88% hike odds, matters more for the 2027 NII outlook, since Barnum’s $107 billion central case assumes one hike in December and two in the first half of 2027.

The fourth is the deal pipeline. The rate selloff slowed activity in late September. If yields stabilize, delayed deals should start to close in the fourth quarter. Dimon’s view that Q4 markets revenue will not see the usual seasonal decline adds upside if he is right.

The fifth is regulation. Basel III endgame and GSIB surcharge rules are expected to be finalized by year-end. Lighter rules would free capital and could prompt a return to larger buybacks.

The sixth is the macro backdrop. Oil above $90, the Hormuz disruption, the Saudi-Houthi conflict, Iran tensions ahead of the November 3 midterms and the semiconductor selloff all feed into credit and market risk.

For the forecast, the catalysts lean neutral to positive. Higher rates support NII, the pipeline should reopen, and regulatory finalization could free capital. The main risk is a disorderly rate move or a credit event.

Verdict: Buy on Weakness; $334.30 Must Hold, Target $366.50 Over Three Months

JPMorgan stock’s verdict for October 13 is constructive with a buy-on-weakness bias. JPM at $336.40, up 0.63% on the session, reversed a 3% premarket decline after reporting third-quarter EPS of $5.57 against a $5.90 consensus.

The bear case rests on the miss and the costs. EPS of $5.57 missed by $0.33; adjusted EPS of $5.75 missed by $0.18. Revenue of $50.2 billion fell short of $51.23 billion. Expenses rose 12% to $27.3 billion, faster than revenue. Credit costs reached $2.7 billion with a $539 million reserve build. Buybacks fell to $664 million from $6.2 billion. CET1 fell 30 basis points to 13.9%. Markets and IB fees fell from the second quarter, and the deal pipeline slowed in late September. Dimon warned of deficits, sticky inflation and rising rates.

The bull case rests on earnings power and capital. ROTCE of 20% beat the 17% through-cycle target. NII rose 13% to $27.1 billion, and 2026 guidance rose to about $106.2 billion, with a 2027 central case of $107 billion excluding Markets. Equities trading jumped 49%. AWM inflows reached $51 billion and AUM $5.2 trillion. CCB added 650,000 checking accounts. The bank holds $30 billion of excess capital and $1.5 trillion of cash and marketable securities. The stock trades near 13 to 14 times run-rate earnings, 7.7% below its 52-week high.

The levels are clear. Support at $334.30, then $332.38 to $332.99, then $300 and $279.10. Resistance at $339, then $345 and $350, then $366.50.

The forecast: JPMorgan holds $334.30 through Wednesday’s CPI and peer earnings, clears $339 as the post-earnings reaction extends, and grinds toward the $366.50 52-week high over three months, an 8.9% gain from current levels. Rising NII guidance, a reopening deal pipeline and the potential for lighter capital rules support the move. A close below $332 would signal the reversal has failed and expose $320 to $300. Given the 20% ROTCE, $106.2 billion NII guide and $30 billion of excess capital, the stock’s quality supports buying weakness rather than chasing strength, with the expense trend the key variable to watch next quarter.

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