Marvell Stock Price Forecast - MRVL Shares at $77.75, Targets 20% Market Share

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) Builds Its Case as the Most Undervalued AI Infrastructure Leader

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Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is steadily emerging as one of the most strategically positioned players in the global AI infrastructure race. With its stock trading around $77.75 as of November 21, 2025, and a market capitalization near $67 billion, MRVL continues to demonstrate powerful alignment with the next decade’s computing paradigm — connecting, processing, and optimizing data at hyperscale. The company is carving out its place not as a headline-grabbing GPU provider like NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), but as the indispensable enabler of the high-speed networks, optical interconnects, and custom silicon that make artificial intelligence actually run.

Full-Stack Infrastructure Advantage Defines MRVL’s Core

Unlike many of its semiconductor peers, Marvell Technology operates as a full-stack data infrastructure company, spanning compute engines, Ethernet switches, optical interconnects, and custom AI silicon. Roughly 74% of total revenue now comes from data-center products, underscoring a deliberate pivot toward the AI buildout. The company invested over $2 billion in R&D during 2025, with more than 80% of total expenditure now concentrated on AI and data-center solutions — a shift that is already paying off through deep relationships with cloud hyperscalers such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT).

Marvell’s approach differs sharply from the merchant-silicon model favored by Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and the proprietary dominance of NVIDIA. MRVL’s hybrid model enables rapid co-design with cloud customers, producing tailored ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) that balance cost, performance, and energy efficiency. Its Package Integrated Voltage Regulator (PIVR) and 2-nanometer SRAM offerings enhance power efficiency — a critical differentiator in hyperscale environments where energy consumption directly affects capex ROI.

Hyperscaler Demand and Custom AI Silicon Pipeline

The momentum behind MRVL’s custom AI silicon business is accelerating. The company now boasts 18 multi-generation AI processor socket wins across hyperscalers, representing a lifetime revenue pipeline exceeding $75 billion. Management aims to capture 20% of the global data-center silicon market by 2028, up from 13% in 2024, implying that MRVL’s data-center revenue could triple within four years.

Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) Trainium 2 initiative exemplifies Marvell’s position. Over half of a key AWS AI service is now powered by MRVL-built custom chips, with AWS reporting 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in its Trainium 2 business. This partnership has expanded as AWS commits over $100 billion in AI-driven capex through 2025. Simultaneously, Microsoft’s upcoming “Maia” custom accelerator remains delayed, but MRVL is expected to participate once deployment ramps in 2026, further validating its role as a critical design partner.

Strategic Realignment and Balance-Sheet Strength

Recent capital moves have reinforced MRVL’s AI focus. The company divested its automotive Ethernet unit for $2.5 billion, redirecting capital toward core high-return segments. The resulting cash flow supports both expansion and shareholder value through a $5 billion share-repurchase program. This aggressive buyback offsets dilution from equity issuance and contributes to expected EPS acceleration above $5 by FY 2028, assuming continued 20–30% annual revenue growth and margin expansion from the current 10% EBIT to roughly 20%.

Marvell’s 2021 acquisition of Inphi has also proven prescient. It secured optical-interconnect leadership at a time when AI clusters require terabits of bandwidth. This acquisition, alongside newly secured wafer capacity at TSMC (NYSE:TSM) — 50,000 wafers reserved at 5-nm with additional options at 2-nm — positions MRVL among the few vendors with guaranteed supply for hyperscaler programs through 2028.

Valuation Gap and Upside Potential

Despite robust fundamentals, MRVL trades at a steep valuation discount to peers. The company’s forward non-GAAP PEG ratio sits at 0.94×, versus a sector median of 1.69× — a 44% discount. On a P/E basis, MRVL’s forward multiple of 38× compares attractively with AVGO (52×), AMD (60×), and NVDA (41×). Applying the industry-average multiple to MRVL’s projected FY 2028 EPS of $4.17–$5.00 suggests a potential fair-value range between $145 and $175 per share, more than 2× the current price.

The company’s peers have already rerated upward during the AI infrastructure boom, yet the market still treats MRVL as cyclical rather than structural. This perception misprices its role in the “plumbing” of AI — the high-speed silicon, optical fabrics, and compute-storage interconnects that sustain exponential data workloads.

Capital Efficiency and Margin Expansion

Marvell’s ability to balance aggressive innovation with disciplined capital allocation sets it apart. The buyback, divestiture, and R&D prioritization combine to lift margins and free cash flow. Analysts expect EBIT margin to double from 10% to 20% by 2026, pushing operating income toward $2.5 billion annually. The mix shift toward custom silicon and optical products, both higher-margin lines, will sustain gross margins above 64%, gradually narrowing the gap with Broadcom’s 70% range.

Competitive Dynamics: Diversification Versus Dependence

While MRVL’s concentration among a few hyperscalers remains a key risk, diversification is improving. Alongside AWS and Microsoft, design engagements now include secondary cloud platforms and enterprise-AI builders across Asia and Europe. The rumored Alchip Technologies competition for AWS’s next-gen Trainium 3/4 designs has not materialized as a financial threat; MRVL’s management reaffirmed during its September 2025 JPMorgan Fireside Chat that “no revenue hole is expected in 2026”, citing multiple follow-on programs under long-term agreements.

Still, dependence on cloud capex cycles cannot be ignored. A slowdown in hyperscaler spending could compress near-term revenue. Yet with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google each planning record AI infrastructure outlays exceeding $80–100 billion through 2026, MRVL’s exposure remains a strength, not a liability.

Institutional Sentiment and Insider Positioning

Wall Street sentiment remains bullish, with analysts maintaining a Buy consensus rating of 4.21/5, while quantitative models remain neutral (score 2.92). Insider transaction data — available here — shows limited selling and consistent institutional accumulation across major funds. Hedge-fund ownership has risen by 6% in Q3 2025, indicating renewed confidence in long-term growth.

Technical Outlook and Trading Dynamics

The stock recently found firm support near $74.80, rebounding toward $77.75. Resistance stands at $86.50, followed by $90.00, the pandemic-era peak that has capped multiple rallies. The RSI near 52 and stabilizing volumes suggest consolidation before the next leg higher. A decisive breakout above $90 would confirm a new medium-term uptrend, targeting $115–$120 in early 2026.

Forward-Looking Growth Scenarios and Strategic Implications

Marvell’s long-term trajectory is tied directly to the scale of AI data-center build-outs. Management forecasts the total addressable market for its custom silicon, optical interconnect, and cloud-networking segments to exceed $94 billion by 2028, up from $30 billion in 2023. Achieving its 20% market-share goal would yield annual revenues near $18–20 billion, more than triple the current run-rate of $6.4 billion.

Its strategic alignment with TSMC’s roadmap and hyperscaler roadmaps ensures capacity stability at advanced nodes where demand far exceeds supply. The transition to 2-nm manufacturing by 2027 will further enhance efficiency, enabling MRVL to compete directly against AVGO and AMD in high-performance compute connectivity.

Verdict on NASDAQ:MRVL

Considering all data points — from AI silicon adoption to margin expansion, valuation discount, and hyperscaler engagement — Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) represents one of the most undervalued and strategically essential semiconductor plays in the AI era. The combination of robust design wins, efficient capital allocation, and deep hyperscaler partnerships gives it one of the strongest multi-year visibility profiles in the sector.

Rating:

• Short-Term (1 Month): Hold → likely consolidation between $75–$85

• Medium-Term (3–6 Months): Buy → target $115 as margins expand and AI silicon ramps

• Long-Term (12 Months +): Strong Buy → fair-value range $150–$175

With the stock still trading below intrinsic value and the AI infrastructure cycle in early acceleration, Marvell Technology remains a strategic long-term buy. Its combination of technical depth, customer diversification, and disciplined execution places it at the heart of the next decade’s data-center revolution

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