Micron (NASDAQ:MU): AI Memory Core At $337
Positioning Of NASDAQ:MU In The AI Buildout
NASDAQ:MU trades around $337–338, just below its $346.30 high and far above the $61.54 low of the past year. Market cap is about $380–385 billion, with a trailing P/E near 32x but a forward P/E close to 10.5x based on FY26 EPS. This is no longer a marginal DRAM name. Micron now sits at the center of AI infrastructure, supplying HBM and advanced DRAM attached to leading accelerators. At these levels the key question is simple. Are the next two years of earnings power and pricing strength already in the price, or is the market still discounting Micron like a cyclical memory vendor rather than a strategic AI supplier.
Real Time View Of NASDAQ:MU Price Action
Intraday, NASDAQ:MU trades in the $337–346 band with heavy volume near 27 million shares. The 12-month range runs from $61.54 to $346.30, a near six-fold move that reflects the DRAM and HBM supercycle rather than beta. The stock now embeds a high level of AI optimism but still carries value metrics if the current revenue and margin trajectory holds. For tick-by-tick data and deeper chart work, you can track Micron here: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MU/real_time_chart
Earnings Reset And Growth Profile For NASDAQ:MU
Micron’s November 2025 quarter, its Q1 FY26, is the pivot. Revenue came in at $13.64 billion, up 56.7% year on year and ahead of roughly $12.9–13.0 billion expected. Gross margin hit 56.8%, well above the low-50s that were in most models. Operating income reached $6.42 billion, growing about 168% year on year. Net income printed at $5.24 billion, up more than 180%, with EPS at $4.78, a 167% jump. EBITDA for the quarter was $8.35 billion, almost doubling versus last year. Net profit margin reached about 38–39%, roughly double the prior period. These are not marginal beats. They represent a reset of the earnings base for NASDAQ:MU.
Forward Guidance For NASDAQ:MU Through FY26 And FY27
Guidance is where the supercycle becomes clear. For Q2 FY26, Micron guided revenue to $18.7 billion, implying 132% year on year growth. Gross margin is guided to 67–68%, another ten to twelve points above Q1. Operating profit is projected near $11.34 billion, implying a margin around 60%. EPS is guided to about $8.42 for the quarter, against prior analyst views around $4.8–4.9. On a full year view, the Street now models FY26 revenue around $74.1 billion, up roughly 98%, then FY27 revenue around $87.7 billion, up near 18–19%. FY26 EPS is projected near $32.21, up close to 289%, with FY27 EPS near $39.37, another 22% step. At $337–338, that leaves NASDAQ:MU at roughly 10.5–10.7x FY26 EPS and 8.5–8.7x FY27 EPS, which is compressed given the growth.
Demand Mechanics For DRAM NAND And HBM At Micron
The driver behind these numbers is the memory complex rather than a one-off PC cycle. Management now expects DRAM demand growth in calendar 2025 in the low-20% range, an upgrade from high teens before. For calendar 2026, Micron expects DRAM and NAND bit shipments to grow around 20%. External pricing data in your sources shows DRAM prices up about four-fold between August and November last year, while inventory is described as critically low and the market in structural shortage. In NAND, which still represents about 20% of Micron revenue, bit shipments rose mid-single digits quarter on quarter and average selling prices moved higher in the mid-teens. The mix shift is clear. The center of gravity is HBM for AI accelerators and premium DRAM for data centers, where buyers are paying up for bandwidth and capacity rather than chasing the lowest bit cost.
HBM4 HBM4E And Supply Lock For NASDAQ:MU
High-bandwidth memory is now the bottleneck rather than raw compute alone. Micron sees the HBM total addressable market around $35 billion in 2025, rising toward $100 billion by 2028, a compound growth rate close to 40%. That $100 billion HBM market arrives two years earlier than Micron’s prior view and is larger than the entire DRAM market in 2024. Critically, Micron has already contracted price and volume for its entire 2026 HBM supply, including its HBM4 generation. HBM4 uses a 2048-bit interface, up from 1024-bit in HBM3E, and delivers more than 2 terabytes per second per stack. Industry pricing implies HBM4 parts carry about a 50% premium versus HBM3E. Micron is also pushing customized HBM4E products tuned for major hyperscalers and AI chip vendors. That customization deepens lock-in and supports higher margins. When a supplier is sold out a full year ahead on a premium product with rising prices, the earnings leverage is obvious.
Margin Transformation At NASDAQ:MU Toward 68 Percent Gross Margin
Micron’s margin profile now looks closer to a high-end chip or platform vendor than to a classic memory name. In Q1 FY26, gross margin was 56%+, up roughly 20 points year on year and about 11 points quarter on quarter. The Q2 guide at 67–68% gross margin would push Micron within single digits of typical gross margins at top AI GPU suppliers, which run around 73–74%. Operating margin guidance near 60% confirms the level of operating leverage coming through. This is driven by richer mix toward HBM4 and HBM4E, rising DRAM and NAND selling prices, and ongoing cost reductions per bit. As long as HBM and DRAM capacity stays tight and AI orders remain firm, NASDAQ:MU can sustain margin levels that the market historically did not assign to memory.
Balance Sheet Cash Position And Capex Strategy For NASDAQ:MU
Micron’s balance sheet gives it room to commit to a heavy capex path without stressing the equity story. Total assets stand near $86.0 billion, up around 20% year on year. Total liabilities are around $27.2 billion, up 10%, leaving total equity at roughly $58.8 billion. Cash and short-term investments are about $10.3 billion, almost 36% higher than a year ago. Price-to-book sits around 6.6x. Return on assets is above 18%, and return on capital is near 22%. On the cash flow side, cash from operations was $8.41 billion in the quarter, up about 159%. Cash used in investing was $4.59 billion, reflecting higher capex into HBM, DRAM tooling and projects like the New York megafab. Cash from financing was a negative $3.75 billion, as Micron paid down debt and returned capital. Free cash flow was about $692 million, up more than 200%. Net cash rose by $86 million even as capex ramped. Micron remains deliberately supply-constrained today and is stepping up capex in the back half of FY26 to capture more of the shortage without driving a future glut.
Relative Valuation Of NASDAQ:MU Versus Memory And AI Peers
Against its own history and against peers, Micron is still priced at a discount to its growth. NASDAQ:MU at $337–338 trades near 10.6x FY26 earnings and 8.6x FY27 earnings, with revenue expected to grow about 98% in FY26 and a further 18% in FY27. Memory and storage peers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Western Digital, Seagate, Intel and Qualcomm carry higher EV to EBITDA and EV to EBIT multiples despite weaker top line growth in many cases. Western Digital, in particular, is highlighted in your sources as trading at more than twice Micron’s earnings multiple, with lower revenue momentum. When compared to the broader AI infrastructure basket, where 30–40x forward earnings and 10–15x forward sales are common for similar growth rates, Micron’s 4.8x FY26 sales and roughly 4.0x FY27 sales look compressed. One of the analyses you supplied uses six peers, takes the 75th percentile of their valuation metrics, and averages across six multiples to derive an implied Micron value near $410–411 per share. From the current $337 level, that implies around 20–22% upside on multiple normalization alone.
Parallels To The 1993 Memory Supercycle For Micron
The “1993 again” comparison is not about nostalgia; it describes the setup. Back then, memory prices surged as supply failed to keep pace with early internet and PC demand. Bit shipments still rose, but pricing power drove margins and share prices. Today, mainstream DRAM pricing is already up roughly four times off the lows, bit shipments are guided to rise around 20% per year in 2025 and 2026, and external commentary points to shortages that could last three to four years, with some voices talking about tightness into 2030. The structural change is that DRAM and HBM now sit directly in the performance path of AI workloads. Where memory once was a commodity line item, it is now a gating resource. That is why buyers accept 50% price premiums for HBM4 and commit to full-year volumes a year in advance. If that regime holds, Micron will not revert to the old single-digit multiple profile. It will trade closer to other strategic AI infrastructure names that own constrained inputs.
Key Risk Clusters For Investors In NASDAQ:MU
The bullish case for NASDAQ:MU rests on AI capex staying elevated, memory supply staying tight, and HBM remaining a bottleneck. The first risk is a slowdown in AI capex at hyperscalers. Current charts show expected AI data center capex growth near 30% into 2026, and order books remain strong, but any broad pullback in AI budgets would hit HBM and DRAM orders and erode Micron’s pricing power. The second risk is overbuilding capacity. Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are all adding HBM and DRAM capacity. If they collectively overshoot just as demand growth normalizes, the industry will swing back into oversupply, DRAM and NAND prices will compress, and margins can retrace from the high-60s down into the 40s or worse. A third risk is a demand shock from macro or from an AI sentiment reversal. If AI workloads scale more slowly than planned, or customers unwind double ordering, the current structural shortage narrative will fade quickly. Execution risk is the last cluster. Micron must deliver HBM4 and HBM4E on time, with strong yields and competitive performance. Any major slip versus Samsung or SK Hynix could cost it design wins and undercut the thesis that it is the “bargain AI memory leader”.
Insider Flows Stock Profile And Monitoring For NASDAQ:MU
After a run from $61.54 to above $330, watching insider and institutional behavior matters. Large net insider selling into strength, combined with a stall in estimate revisions, would signal that near-term risk reward is deteriorating even if the long-term AI thesis stands. For a detailed view of ownership, institutional flows and insider transactions, you can use the dedicated profile pages: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MU/stock_profile and the insider feed at https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MU/stock_profile/insider_transactions These tools are useful for timing entries and sizing, especially around earnings and capex announcements.
Investment Stance On NASDAQ:MU Buy With A 410 Dollar Objective
Taking the data set together, NASDAQ:MU at roughly $337 is not priced like a company about to double revenue and nearly triple earnings in FY26. The stock trades around 10.6x FY26 EPS and 8.6x FY27 EPS while guiding to gross margins near 68% and operating margins close to 60%. DRAM and HBM bit shipments are expected to grow around 20% annually through 2026, HBM4 and HBM4E supply for 2026 is already fully committed, and DRAM pricing has moved roughly four times off the trough. Peer and basket comparisons support a fair value closer to $410–411 per share, which implies about 20–22% upside if Micron simply normalizes to the mid-range of AI infrastructure valuations. The correct stance here is Buy, with a base case objective around $410 over a 12–18 month horizon, treating pullbacks toward the $300–310 zone as opportunities to build or add to positions, and using a sustained break above $158 for the dollar index and clear signs of AI capex cuts as the main triggers to reassess the thesis.
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