Natural Gas Price Today: NG=F Stabilizes Around $3.90 After A 30% Shakeout
Front-month Henry Hub futures (NG=F) are trading in the $3.90–$3.95 per mmBtu band, with today’s session printing a range roughly between $3.84 and $3.96 and screens showing about $3.92. That level is the result of a violent reset from early-December highs above $5.00 and leaves natural gas hovering in a fragile balance between weather risk, heavy supply, and a clearly damaged chart.
From $5.10 Euphoria To Sub-$4 Reality: December’s Reversal In Natural Gas
At the start of December, NG=F staged a classic winter squeeze. Futures drove into the $4.80–$5.10 zone, testing a multi-month resistance cluster that combined the upper edge of a broad descending channel, the $4.800 technical pivot from March, and the psychological $5.000 barrier. That confluence was too much for the rally to absorb. A bearish gap appeared around 8 December, price slid back inside the channel, and the rising short-term trendline on intraday charts was broken decisively. From the early-month peak close to $5.10 down to recent lows around $3.84, NG=F has given back roughly 30 percent in less than three weeks. Momentum indicators that had been stretched above 70 reversed sharply, and most daily dashboards now classify the contract as a strong sell, confirming that speculative length has been flushed out quickly rather than unwound gradually.
Weather, Production And Storage: Why Fundamentals No Longer Justify $5 Gas
The collapse from $5+ is rooted in fundamentals, not just technicals. Late-December weather projections across the main U.S. heating corridors have shifted noticeably warmer than normal, knocking down heating-degree-day expectations and stripping away much of the cold-weather premium that had been built into early-month pricing. At the same time, lower-48 output remains near record territory. Recent estimates put U.S. natural gas production around 109.7 billion cubic feet per day, matching the extremely high rates posted in November. That level of supply gives the system a substantial cushion when temperatures turn less hostile. Storage has moved from being a clear bullish driver to a more neutral one. Working gas inventories are only about 0.9 percent above the five-year average after a 167 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended 12 December. The draw is large by historical norms but came in slightly lighter than the most aggressive expectations. Futures initially attempted to rally on the number and then faded, signaling that traders cared more about the combination of warm forecasts and resilient output than about one storage print. The net result is a front month that has bled off most of its early-winter premium. Henry Hub was above $5.20 when the first cold burst hit; now it is just under $4.00 even though winter is far from over, which tells you how aggressively the market has repriced the risk profile.
Global Gas Balance: Asia LNG At A 20-Month Low While Europe’s TTF Holds A Wind-Driven Premium
Natural gas pricing today is being set inside a wider global framework. In Asia, spot LNG has slipped to a fresh 20-month low. February cargoes into Northeast Asia are assessed around $9.50 per mmBtu, down from roughly $10 the previous week and the weakest level since April 2024. Soft industrial demand, strong pipeline deliveries into China, and robust renewable generation in Japan have all reduced gas burn in the regional power stack. Market commentary now describes the near-term Asian outlook as slightly bearish, with buyers signaling more interest closer to the mid-$8 range, which highlights the lack of urgency to secure volumes at current prices. Europe sits in a different but equally important position. Dutch TTF front-month contracts are trading close to €28.05 per MWh, roughly $9.6 per mmBtu, while British day-ahead gas has also ticked higher. The driver is primarily power-sector related. Weather models show lower wind output, which tends to push gas-fired power plants to run harder, lifting hub prices even when storage remains adequate. European gas inventories are about 68.2 percent full, below the most comfortable recent winters but still far from crisis levels, and Norwegian flows near 348 million cubic meters per day keep supply conditions broadly steady. LNG benchmarks for Northwest Europe, such as February markers around $8.9 per mmBtu, remain below hub prices, confirming that flexible cargoes are still available and that the market is not facing an outright physical shortage. For NG=F, this mix means LNG exports remain attractive but no longer deliver a powerful, one-way pull higher. The arbitrage spread supports continued U.S. liquefaction utilization, yet it is not tight enough to force Henry Hub sharply above today’s $3.90–$4.00 zone without fresh demand or weather catalysts.
Chart Structure For NG=F: Descending Channel, Heavy Resistance At $4.20 And A Fragile Floor At $3.84
On the technical side, NG=F remains under clear downward pressure. The four-hour chart shows price oscillating in the lower half of a descending channel that began forming in early December. Recent lows in the $3.84 area line up with a prior Fibonacci retracement zone and an unfilled bullish gap from the second half of October, creating an important support band. Above the market, the 50-period exponential moving average on the four-hour timeframe sits near $4.20 and the 100-period EMA around $4.39. Trading below both confirms a bearish configuration where rallies are still classified as counter-trend moves. Short-horizon models are projecting a working range roughly between $3.68 and $4.07, with immediate support around $3.88 and resistance anchored at $4.20. A decisive break beneath $3.84 would expose $3.68 as the next downside objective, followed by about $3.54 if selling accelerates. On the upside, bulls must reclaim $4.20 and hold above it on a closing basis to argue for a momentum shift and to bring $4.60 back into play. Momentum readings have normalized from deeply oversold territory but have not flipped constructive. Relative strength has recovered into the mid-40s, which is consistent with consolidation after a selloff rather than the early stages of a new impulsive advance. Candle structure shows repeated long lower wicks around $3.85–$3.88, evidence that buyers are cautiously defending dips, yet the follow-through on bounces has been modest, confirming that the downtrend still deserves respect.
North American Regional Signals: Dawn, AECO And Mexico Exports Point To A Higher Structural Floor
Regional dynamics across North America add nuance that is not visible on a single Henry Hub chart. In Ontario, gas storage levels have dropped to their lowest reading for this point in the calendar year in more than a decade. A much colder-than-normal start to the heating season in Central Canada has drawn inventories down rapidly. Price behavior at the Dawn hub reflects that stress: quotes surged above $5.00 per mmBtu in January and spiked near $7.00 in February 2025, then faded to around $2.50 by late spring and summer before rebounding sharply toward $4.80 in November and easing back again in December. The pattern shows how quickly regional tightness can reappear even in a world that, on paper, looks well-supplied. Further west, pipeline constraints and maintenance events have reminded traders how fragile certain corridors remain. Scheduled inspection work on the T-South segment of a key western pipeline system forced temporary flow reductions toward border interconnects, sending daily prices at Station 2 sharply higher as capacity tightened. With limited alternative routes, localized issues can produce intense, short-term volatility. South of the U.S. border, exports to Mexico have edged higher as domestic Mexican demand climbs and U.S. prices cool from early-December spikes. Two-year charts of bid-week averages show a clear uptrend in U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico from late 2023 through late 2025. That corridor is becoming an increasingly important outlet for U.S. supply and gradually lifts the structural demand floor under NG=F. Taken together, Ontario’s depleted storage, western Canadian bottlenecks, and growing Mexican import dependence argue that North America is not swimming in indefinitely cheap gas. The current print near $3.90 should not be mistaken for a permanent equilibrium in a system where regional tightness can reappear quickly.
LNG Projects, Capacity Decisions And The Path To Tighter Balances In 2026
The medium-term story for NG=F is still anchored in LNG expansion. Official forecasts now point to Henry Hub spot prices averaging close to $4.30 per mmBtu for the November–March winter window and around $4.60 per mmBtu in 2026, even after adjusting for the pullback from early-December highs. Those numbers sit materially above today’s spot and imply that, once seasonal swings are averaged out, the market expects a tighter balance than screens currently indicate. Global demand projections back that view. Aggregate gas consumption is expected to rise by roughly 2 percent in 2026, with Asia doing most of the heavy lifting. Some agencies see Asian gas demand climbing more than 4 percent next year and regional LNG imports rising about 10 percent after a subdued 2025. New liquefaction trains in the U.S. Gulf Coast, export terminals on Canada’s Pacific coast, and large capacity additions in Qatar will all push more LNG supply into the seaborne market. As that happens, price differentials between Henry Hub and overseas benchmarks should compress, driving U.S. prices higher and overseas prices lower than current spreads would imply. At the same time, project execution is not linear. The decision by a major U.S. operator to suspend the Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana because of escalating costs and a perceived global glut is a clear reminder that capital discipline, construction inflation, and policy uncertainty can interrupt even well-telegraphed build-outs. Every delay or cancellation keeps some potential demand for U.S. feedgas on the sidelines and slows the speed at which NG=F can move into a structurally tighter regime.
Macro And Oil Context: A Soft Crude Tape With Gas Quietly Repricing Higher Over The Cycle
The macro environment around NG=F is being shaped by a softer oil complex and a cautiously growing global economy. Brent crude has slipped below $60 per barrel and WTI trades in the mid-$50s, more than 20 percent below levels above $70 seen earlier in 2025. Strong non-OPEC production, higher OPEC+ quotas, and persistent concern about China’s demand have all contributed to an oil market characterized by surplus and heavy inventories rather than scarcity. Yet oil demand is still grinding higher, with estimates of about 1.3 million barrels per day of growth in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. Transport fuels and petrochemical feedstocks dominate that increase and anchor broader energy consumption. Natural gas has followed a different path but with a similar message. Prices started 2025 near $3.64, dropped to around $2.74 in August, then spiked to roughly $5.31 on 5 December before retreating to just under $4.00. That arc shows two things very clearly. First, NG=F can still reach the $5 handle quickly when weather, sentiment, and structural demand align. Second, spikes of that kind are unlikely to hold if supply remains strong and short-term demand drivers turn neutral. The consensus view for 2026 is not one of runaway upside; it is one of higher averages with large intra-year swings. Gas is expected to post its highest annual average since 2014, excluding the Russia-Ukraine shock of 2022, but with repeated bursts of volatility as infrastructure, weather, policy, and LNG flows collide.
Natural Gas Trading View On NG=F: Short-Term Bearish, Medium-Term Constructive, Overall A Hold
When all the strands are combined, NG=F looks misaligned in time rather than mispriced in absolute terms. Spot is near $3.92 after a 30 percent slide from peaks above $5.10. Warm late-December forecasts, production around 109.7 Bcf per day, and storage hovering just 0.9 percent above the five-year norm explain why the front end has cheapened so quickly. Asia is taking spot LNG near $9.50 per mmBtu, Europe’s TTF is around €28 per MWh with storage at roughly 68 percent, and U.S. exports to Mexico, Ontario tightness, and western Canadian constraints all point to a firmer medium-term floor. Technically, NG=F is still locked inside a descending channel, below the $4.20 and $4.39 moving averages, and vulnerable to a further probe of $3.84, $3.68, or even $3.54 if bearish momentum persists. Weather-driven model ranges between $3.68 and $4.07 reinforce the idea that the next few sessions will be more about trading the band than establishing a new trend. At the same time, official projections of winter averages near $4.30 and 2026 levels around $4.60, together with expected global demand growth and LNG expansion, argue that today’s price is already sitting under the center of gravity for the next cycle. In that configuration, the stance on NG=F is a clear Hold with a medium-term bullish tilt. Short-term traders can still lean short against the $4.00–$4.20 resistance zone while the descending channel is intact, but aggressive new selling at $3.90 carries limited reward versus downside that has already been realized. Longer-horizon investors have a constructive setup forming but do not yet have a confirmed base, so staged entry rather than all-in exposure makes more sense. The key tactical levels are straightforward: watch $3.84 on the downside and $4.20 on the upside. A decisive break below the former would reopen deeper retracement targets, while a sustained close above the latter would signal that NG=F is starting to transition from a washed-out winter trade back toward the higher averages implied by 2026 forecasts.
That's TradingNEWS
