Natural Gas Price Forecast - NG=F Soars From $3.10 to $3.59 as Arctic Cold Reignites Henry Hub

NATURAL GAS (NG=F) PRICE REBOUNDS SHARPLY FROM $3.10 LOW

Short-term weather shock launches NG=F back toward $3.50–$3.59

Front-month Natural Gas (NG=F) has snapped from a 13-week low near $3.10 per MMBtu back to roughly $3.50–$3.59, a daily gain of around 13–16 percent. On the Rigzone board, US natural gas is printed at about $3.59, up 15.79 percent on the session, while Henry Hub is described trading around $3.50 after being near $3.10 before the weekend. The key driver is a sudden shift in late-January weather models. Forecasts now show Arctic air sweeping the East Coast and Midwest between January 26 and February 1, lifting heating load and power burn expectations just as the market had written off winter risk and pushed NG=F down into the low-$3s. This is not a slow grind higher; it is a fast repricing of weather risk from oversold levels.

Positioning, feedgas flows and why the NG=F spike is tactical

Analysts tracking NG=F describe the rally as tactical rather than structural. Before this move, speculative positioning had turned short after the slide to $3.10, leaving the market vulnerable once weather turned colder. As the Arctic pattern appeared in the models, traders who were leaning short were forced to cover, which amplified the price jump from about $3.10 back toward $3.50. At the same time, US feedgas flows into LNG plants remain elevated and firm, which keeps near-term demand supported and tightens the spot balance slightly. There is no supply shock in the background. Production is still strong, storage is still described as comfortable, and LNG export flows overall are modestly lower at the margin. That combination explains why the move looks like a bounce driven by colder forecasts, elevated feedgas and short covering rather than a regime change based on structural undersupply. Price today is roughly back where it was a week ago, which underlines that NG=F has retraced a dip more than broken into a new trend.

Technical map for NG=F: $3.00 floor, $3.50–$3.83 resistance band

Technically, Natural Gas (NG=F) is reacting cleanly to known levels. The area around $3.00 was flagged as the logical zone for a rebound, and last week’s low near $3.10 has now acted as the launchpad for a double-digit percentage rally. Price is currently sitting just under the 200-day EMA near $3.50, which is the first major resistance that bulls must clear to prove this is more than a squeeze. Above that, the next key level is the 50-day EMA around $3.83, which caps the upper part of the current consolidation band. Between $3.00 on the downside and $3.80–$3.83 on the upside, NG=F has effectively been trading a broad range that has alternated between accumulation and frustration. Today’s spike to around $3.50–$3.59 pushes price to the top of that band. If the contract fails repeatedly at the 200-day EMA and rolls over back toward $3.20–$3.30, the move will be confirmed as a weather-driven shakeout inside that range. If NG=F can hold above $3.50 and attack $3.80–$3.83, then the market will start to price a more durable winter leg.

Global gas volatility: European swings feeding back into NG=F risk premium

The NG=F move is unfolding while European gas contracts experience the most violent weekly swings in about two years. Speculative traders have driven extreme volatility in European benchmarks, and that instability directly affects the US complex via LNG arbitrage. When European prices surge, the economics of shipping US molecules abroad improve, and even if physical flows do not immediately change, expectations for future balances do. That forces traders to add a volatility premium to NG=F whenever fundamentals tighten even marginally. The return of extreme volatility in Europe means the calm regime that characterised much of the recent period is over. The combination of Arctic forecasts in the US, firmer Asian LNG interest and speculative swings in European hubs makes the current Henry Hub rally more sensitive to sentiment than to pipeline-level disruptions. NG=F is now trading in a global risk bucket, not just a domestic weather story, and that tends to steepen both upside spikes and downside collapses around key headlines.

Henry Hub 2026–2027 fundamental band and end-of-decade levels

Medium-term projections for Henry Hub sit in a relatively tight band despite today’s shock move. One major bank’s research desk sees US Natural Gas averaging about $3.85 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2026, roughly $3.74 across the full year, and $3.73 for 2027. Enverus’ 2026 outlook pencils Henry Hub at around $3.80 through the winter months and $3.60 in the summer, before a gradual climb into the $4.00–$4.50 range toward the end of the decade. A separate BMI forecast anchors front-month Henry Hub near $3.90 in 2026 and $4.00 in 2027. The latest US government short-term energy outlook is in the same corridor, calling for an average Henry Hub spot price near $3.46 in 2026 and $4.59 in 2027, with heavy quarterly seasonality. That profile shows about $3.38 in the first quarter of 2026, $2.75 in the second, $3.42 in the third, $4.28 in the fourth, then $4.78, $4.30, $4.43 and $4.84 across the four quarters of 2027. For reference, Henry Hub averaged around $3.53 in 2025. All of these tracks put NG=F roughly in a $3.00–$4.50 equilibrium band through the next several years, with winter quarters testing the top of the range and shoulder seasons dipping into the bottom, but with no one pricing either a structural bust or a sustained spike far beyond $5.

How today’s NG=F price sits versus production, storage and LNG flows

At $3.50–$3.59, Natural Gas (NG=F) is trading in the middle of that fundamental band while the physical backdrop still looks comfortable. US output remains robust, storage is described as comfortable rather than tight, and there is no storyline of wellhead disruption or pipeline outage. Overall demand is only slightly higher, with a modest pullback in LNG export flows offset by the short-term blast in power and heating demand. That is why analysts describe the move as a weather-driven adjustment rather than a structural repricing. However, the level matters. Sub-$3.20 gas in late January, with the risk of an Arctic outbreak and rising Asian LNG interest, is hard to justify on a risk-adjusted basis. The bounce from $3.10 to about $3.50–$3.59 essentially removes that mispricing and realigns NG=F with the mid-$3s averages that most models already carried for the winter strip. In other words, the contract has moved from “cheap with embedded weather risk” to “fair relative to expected balances”, not from “normal” to “expensive”.

Trading stance on NG=F around $3.50: bullish bias but not a chase

From a trading standpoint, NG=F around $3.50 after a straight-line move off $3.10 presents a split picture. On one side, the structural backdrop of strong production, adequate storage and mid-$3s fair value suggests that chasing a day-one rally of more than 13 percent into the underside of the 200-day EMA is poor risk-reward. On the other side, the combination of a genuine Arctic demand shock, firmer Asian LNG interest, heightened European gas volatility and a curve that is still anchored in the $3.50–$4.50 band argues against aggressively fading the move as if it were pure noise. The clean way to frame it is directional bias versus execution level. On a three- to six-month view, Natural Gas (NG=F) in the low-$3s is more likely to be supported than crushed, and forecasts clustering around $3.50–$4.00 with winter spikes toward $4.50 support a constructive, mildly bullish stance. At today’s level near $3.50–$3.59, after a vertical spike, the market looks more like a hold with a bullish bias than a fresh chase higher. A retest of $3.20–$3.30 on any short-term moderation in weather models would offer a better entry for longs targeting the $3.80–$4.00 area, while a sustained weekly close above the 200-day EMA and then the $3.80–$3.83 band would confirm that NG=F is transitioning from a tactical squeeze into a more durable winter up-leg.

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