Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Eyes $4.30 if Storage Draws Tighten

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Forecast: Winter Demand vs Record Supply Sets Up the Next Break

NG=F Snapshot: Why the Market Keeps Pivoting Around $3.47–$3.59

NG=F is trading like a market trapped between a weather-driven demand reset and structurally firm export pull. February futures were quoted around $3.59/mmBtu after a 2.6% daily drop, with traders focused on whether the contract slips back to the $3.47 pre-Christmas area or stabilizes and rebuilds toward the $4.00+ zone. The reason this band matters is simple: in winter, small forecast changes can swing demand fast, but the supply baseline is high enough that rallies need confirmation from storage draws to stick.

Weather Is the Immediate Lever: Heating Degree Days Fell From 413 to 369

The near-term selloff is rooted in warmer model runs into mid-January. Heating degree days were cited falling from 413 earlier in the week to 369 by Friday, which directly lowers expected residential/commercial consumption. When the market prices fewer heating days during the heart of winter, NG=F reprices immediately because the highest-velocity demand driver is suddenly smaller. If warmth holds into Jan. 16, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the most obvious “memory level” around $3.47.

Supply Is Heavy and Keeps Pressure On Rallies: Lower-48 Output Around 110 bcfd

Production is the weight around NG=F’s neck. Lower-48 output was estimated around 110 bcfd in December, a record. In a high-output regime like that, the market needs either sustained cold or sustained export tightening to keep pushing higher; otherwise, each pop becomes an opportunity for the curve to find sellers. This is why the market can look bullish on a headline and still fade on the next warm weather run.

LNG Export Pull Is the Structural Bid: Feedgas Around 18.5 bcfd

Even with heavy supply, exports prevent the floor from collapsing the way it used to in oversupply cycles. Feedgas to the largest U.S. LNG export plants was estimated around 18.5 bcfd in December, also a record. That matters because it permanently removes a large slice of domestic supply from balancing. If LNG feedgas stays anywhere near the high teens while weather normalizes colder, balances can tighten quickly and futures can reprice higher in a very short time.

The Next “Hard Data” Catalyst: EIA Storage Report on January 8

Storage is the scoreboard that confirms whether the warmth narrative is real in the numbers. If the next withdrawals come in light, it validates the warm-demand reset and increases the odds of a drift toward $3.47 and potentially lower. If withdrawals surprise larger, it forces the market to reprice the remaining winter risk, and NG=F can snap upward fast because export pull remains strong and winter demand can re-accelerate quickly.

Key Price Structure: $3.47 Downside Magnet, $3.75 Pivot, $4.00 Trigger

The downside is clean: $3.47 is the referenced pre-Christmas area and the level traders already identified as the next stop if warmth persists. The pivot is the mid-$3s, where the market decides if this is a temporary weather dip or a deeper unwind. The upside trigger is psychological and mechanical: reclaiming $4.00 shifts positioning from “sell rallies” toward “don’t get caught short into winter volatility.”