Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Storage Builds Limit Upside as Resistance Holds at $3.19

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Holds Around $3.09 With Resistance at $3.19

Natural gas is trading in a pivotal zone after rebounding from late August lows. Futures on NG=F are consolidating above $3.09, supported by the 50-day EMA near $2.99 and the longer 200-day EMA at $2.96, which now serves as a firm base. Momentum indicators show strength, with RSI hovering near 66, signaling bullish control though edging into overbought territory. Immediate resistance sits at $3.13, with the critical $3.19 level emerging as the major barrier. A break above could trigger fresh gains toward $3.22 and $3.29, while failure at $3.19 risks a sharp pullback to $2.95 and even $2.81.

Bearish Pressure Builds at $3.19 Resistance

Price action has approached the ceiling at $3.190, a level highlighted by technical traders as decisive for direction. Holding below this barrier points to a corrective leg lower, targeting $2.950 and $2.810 in the short term. The projected intraday range stretches between $2.810 and $3.180, with a bearish lean unless bulls regain firm traction. The stochastic oscillator has flashed positivity, helping natural gas form a short-term bullish wave into resistance, but the sustainability of this move depends entirely on whether $3.19 is broken.

EIA Storage Data Caps Momentum

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 55 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending August 29, matching consensus. That in-line result caused futures to cool, with traders noting the surplus to the five-year average is widening again. September seasonality also tempers expectations: natural gas often struggles to maintain rallies in the shoulder period between peak cooling and heating demand. Without weather surprises, the market risks another round of selling pressure despite the recent climb.

Regional Hub Prices Show Divergence

Spot market data underscores how uneven fundamentals remain across the U.S. Henry Hub is quoted at $0.27, Houston Ship Channel near $0.155, and Chicago Citygate around $0.155 as well, while SoCal Border trades firmer at $0.365 and Northwest Sumas holds at $0.16. On the Canadian side, NOVA/AECO C is weak at –$0.355, reflecting the persistent oversupply in Western Canada. European benchmarks also stay subdued, with TTF trading near €32 per MWh after hitting a 15-month low of €30.3 in August, supported by EU storage levels at 78% full and LNG imports running more than 50% higher year-to-date.

Canadian Natural Gas Struggles While LNG Adds Support

In Canada, AECO prices barely clung to positive levels during July’s slump, pressured by ample supply and muted local demand. Signs of recovery have emerged as LNG Canada projects ramp up, adding critical new demand outlets for Western Canadian producers. Even so, stout supply continues to weigh, preventing a more aggressive rebound. Westcoast Station 2 and AECO remain volatile, but the growing footprint of LNG exports suggests structural tightening in the medium term.

Global LNG Flows Reinforce Supply Cushion

The U.S. shipped record LNG volumes in August as major plants concluded maintenance, expanding exports into Europe and Asia. This wave of supply helps explain why European contracts remain capped despite geopolitical risks. With European storage racing toward the 80% target for winter, buyers have a cushion against Russian flow uncertainty. Still, speculative positions in options markets show many traders betting on higher Q4 prices should weather or supply shocks emerge, leaving upside risks in play even amid today’s subdued prints.

Natural Gas Linked to Oil Volatility

Broader energy markets add another layer to price direction. WTI futures have slid toward $63 per barrel and Brent toward $66.80 as OPEC+ debates unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts. These moves weigh on overall sentiment across commodities. Yet natural gas has diverged, holding firmer on geopolitical risk premiums and seasonal expectations. The relative strength highlights how gas fundamentals—storage, LNG flows, and weather—are driving trading independently of crude oil in the current setup.

Trading Outlook for NG=F

The balance of signals shows natural gas pinned between strong technical barriers and supportive seasonal forces. A decisive breakout above $3.19 would ignite momentum toward $3.29 and potentially $3.31, while failure to clear resistance opens the door to $2.95 and $2.81. The latest injection data and high exchange balances keep near-term risks tilted bearish, but underlying support from LNG exports and winter demand expectations prevents capitulation. Traders face a market where every cent above or below $3 is contested, with $2.96–$3.19 marking the crucial battle zone.

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