Asia Spot LNG Near 20-Month Lows: A Temporary Cap On Global Gas, Not A Verdict On 2026
In Asia, spot LNG prices are providing an important brake on any near-term gas exuberance. February cargoes into Northeast Asia are quoted around $9.50 per MMBtu, described as roughly a 20-month low, while a European LNG marker sits near $8.88. The narrow spread between Asian and European landing prices suppresses the incentive to re-route cargoes aggressively between basins; when freight is included, arbitrage opportunities are modest rather than explosive.
Soft Asian demand is the main culprit. China, in particular, has tempered LNG appetite in 2025 through weaker industrial activity, stronger domestic production growth and increased pipeline inflows. That combination pushes more LNG volumes toward Europe and Latin America and contributes to the current oversupplied feel in the spot market.
Yet even here, the structural story still favors gas. Emerging markets continue to position LNG as a bridge fuel into cleaner power mixes. Sri Lanka, for example, is in talks with Moscow regarding an LNG terminal and a refinery upgrade to handle Russian crude, framing LNG as part of its transition strategy under climate pressure. As new large-scale Asian demand centers formalize import infrastructure, that $9–$10 spot price will begin to look more like a cyclical floor than a ceiling.
Turkey’s Spot Gas And Regional Pipelines: Local Currency Pressure On Top Of A Global Dollar Story
On the regional front, Turkey’s spot gas market illustrates how the global natural gas narrative filters down into domestic price risk. On the Energy Exchange Istanbul, spot trades on Dec. 19 saw 1,000 cubic meters of gas priced at 14,484.42 Turkish lira, with total daily volume around 647,000 cubic meters and a value of roughly 9.3 million lira. Using an exchange rate of about ₺42.78 per US dollar, that translates to roughly $338.6 per 1,000 cubic meters.
In the days around that print, spot prices traced a narrow but meaningful band: 14,524.88 lira on Dec. 18, 14,386 lira on Dec. 17, 14,963.71 lira on Dec. 15, and 14,434.94–14,583.03 lira over the Dec. 13–14 weekend window. The range captures a roughly 4% swing in local currency terms over just a few sessions. Meanwhile, Turkey’s pipeline receipts remain heavy, with one day’s inflow data showing about 269.16 million cubic meters of pipeline gas, many times the spot-market traded volume.
For traders focused on NG=F, the Turkish example matters as a case study in how FX risk and domestic inflation can magnify commodity moves. Dollar-denominated equilibrium for gas may rest in the $4–$5 per MMBtu band, but local consumers often face far more volatile effective prices once currencies and regulated tariffs are layered on top.
LNG Projects, Freight And Trade Flows: Supply Growth Is Real, But So Is Capital Discipline
Supply growth remains a central pillar of bearish arguments, yet recent decisions suggest the build-out will not be as reckless as some feared. Energy Transfer’s decision to pause its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, a proposed facility with about 16.45 mtpa of planned liquefaction capacity, is instructive. Management explicitly cited capital allocation priorities and concerns about returns in a crowded LNG cycle.
At the same time, LNG freight rates have been sliding. Spark’s Atlantic assessment slipped to about $92,000 per day, down almost $24,000 in a week, with Pacific rates also under pressure. Cheaper shipping reduces basis risk between basins and affects netbacks for exporters; combined with softer Asian demand, it helps pin global gas benchmarks closer together.
These micro-moves interact with bigger geopolitical flows. Israel’s long-term gas supply agreement to Egypt, valued at up to $35 billion and running through 2040, reinforces the Eastern Mediterranean’s role as a regional balancing hub, influencing both Egyptian LNG export dynamics and import needs over time. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports to Asia are set to fall from roughly 29.8 million tons in 2024 to about 19.1 million in 2025, as China in particular tilts toward alternative suppliers and pipeline contracts. The molecules do not disappear; they are rerouted, with Europe and other markets absorbing larger U.S. volumes at Henry-Hub-linked prices.
For NG=F, the signal is mixed but ultimately constructive. There is enough capacity growth and flexibility to prevent a structural shortage, but there is also visible capital discipline and project attrition that argue against a return to the ultra-cheap oversupply regime of the 2010s.
2026 Price Framework: EIA’s $4.01, Goldman’s $4.60 And Bernstein’s “Faith In Five”
The medium-term debate around natural gas is now crystallizing into three anchor views.
The EIA sits in the middle of the range. Its Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Henry Hub averaging about $4.01 per MMBtu in 2026, with dry gas production around 109.11 Bcf per day and LNG exports averaging roughly 16.3 Bcf per day. End-March storage near 2,000 Bcf is consistent with a market that has repriced its floor higher but is not running short.
Goldman Sachs pushes the equilibrium slightly higher, with a $4.60 Henry Hub forecast for 2026 and $3.80 for 2027, while pegging European TTF near €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 in 2027. This view effectively assumes that the current wave of LNG projects, plus ongoing U.S. productivity gains, are enough to prevent a permanent $5-plus regime but not enough to drag prices back toward $3 on a sustained basis.
Bernstein, by contrast, is openly arguing that the market has not yet fully internalized a structurally higher price band. Its Americas Natural Gas Outlook 2026 reiterates “faith in five,” treating $5 per mcf as the new mid-cycle reference point after a decade near $3.50. The house leans heavily on two pillars: LNG exports and power demand. It highlights that current U.S. LNG volumes are around 5 Bcf per day higher than a year ago and that growth forecasts into 2030 have been revised upward. On the supply side, the note underscores producer restraint. The Haynesville is described as operating near five-year lows in volumes, with rig counts “depressed” and an estimated eight-month lag between drilling activity and output, meaning much of 2026 supply is effectively pre-determined at lower levels. In the Permian, horizontal rig counts are down roughly 20% from early-2025 levels, curbing associated gas growth.
Bernstein also stresses that 2025’s flat gas-fired power demand is misleading because AI data-center loads are “back-end loaded.” The firm expects that wave to show up far more visibly in the second half of the decade, adding a structurally sticky demand block that is relatively price-insensitive compared with residential consumption.
Taken together, these three benchmarks frame a plausible 2026 Henry Hub corridor between about $4 and $5, with the lower end representing a scenario where production responds quickly and LNG growth is orderly, and the upper end reflecting a world where new export demand arrives faster than supply, while capital discipline and policy constraints limit the pace of drilling.
Natural Gas Vs Regional Benchmarks: How NG=F Fits Into The Global Stack
Against that backdrop, the current NG=F tape around the high-$3s looks misaligned with the emerging macro structure. Europe is effectively pre-committing to high LNG usage through its 2026–2027 Russian phase-out; Asia spot LNG is temporarily depressed around $9.50 but sits at a level that still leaves room for higher Henry Hub netbacks once demand normalizes; Turkey’s spot gas is clearing near the ₺14,400–₺15,000 range per 1,000 cubic meters, equivalent to roughly $330–$350 at today’s FX; and emerging markets such as Sri Lanka are actively planning LNG terminal infrastructure.
In that context, a U.S. benchmark that is struggling to hold $3.60–$4.00 looks more like a market digesting a technical correction than a credible long-term equilibrium.
Trading View On Natural Gas (NG=F): Short-Term Cautious, Medium-Term Bullish – Overall A Buy On Weakness
From a trading and allocation standpoint, the message is split across time horizons.
In the very near term, NG=F remains under pressure. Multiple closes below the 200-day average at $3.75, a falling 20-day, and resistance stacked at $3.93, $4.09–$4.15 and around $4.24 leave the market vulnerable to another leg down if $3.60 fails. A decisive daily close below $3.60 would likely invite a test of the $3.48–$3.44 band, where deeper Fibonacci support converges with prior tops. For short-term traders, that argues for tight risk management on the long side until either $3.60 proves durable or the tape reclaims $3.93 on convincing volume.
On a 2026 horizon, however, the risk-reward skews in favor of the bulls. Structural demand from LNG exports, Europe’s legislated shift away from Russian gas, the coming AI-driven load in power markets, and visible producer discipline all support a re-rating of Henry Hub toward the $4–$5 range flagged by the EIA, Goldman and Bernstein. Current pricing in the high-$3s is below the center of that projected band.
Net conclusion for positioning: natural gas NG=F screens as a Buy on weakness for investors with a 12–24-month horizon, with the caveat that shorter-term price action can still be brutally volatile. Accumulating exposure on dips into the $3.60–$3.40 zone, with a working medium-term target around $4.50–$5.00, is consistent with the data now on the table. If the market instead breaks and sustains trade below $3.40 while storage and LNG metrics remain benign, that would be the signal to reassess whether the structural bull thesis has been mis-timed or mis-priced—not to assume that the $3 world of the last decade has magically returned.
