Natural Gas Price — NG=F: Spot Tape, Levels, And What’s Actually Driving The Move
U.S. natural gas futures clawed back from Monday’s multi-month low at $2.895 and spent the day pivoting around $3.10–$3.15, with September NG=F last quoted near $3.115 intraday, up roughly +1.2%. The squeeze is being powered by short-covering into hotter August weather and a lean storage print setup, but the rally is running directly into layered resistance: the $3.301 pivot, a falling 20-day MA near $3.22, and the 50-day MA at $3.60. The bull case strengthens only on a daily close above $3.301; fail there, and the market risks sinking back to the $3.02–$2.97 support band and the critical $2.90–$2.85 floor.
Weather, Load, And The Power Bid Under NG=F
Forecasts turned hotter for Aug 11–20 across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., lifting power burn as A/C demand bites. U.S. electricity output rose +0.9% y/y in the week ending Aug 2, and spot hubs reflected firmer cash pricing that helped pull futures off the lows. This is still a weather-led bounce; if model runs cool, the same tape that sprinted to $3.15 can be back probing $3.00 within a session.
Supply Is Not Your Friend: Dry Gas Still Heavy Versus History
Lower-48 dry gas output printed ~107.9 Bcf/d, up ~5% y/y, a high-gravity headwind for sustained upside. Associated gas from oil plays and resilient core basins keep the production base stout, limiting follow-through beyond first resistance unless weather and exports do more of the heavy lifting.
Storage Math: A Small Build Can Do Big Technical Damage (In A Good Way)
The street is leaning toward a +9 Bcf EIA injection for the week ended Aug 1 versus a five-year average +29 Bcf. A single-digit build would validate tighter balances and should let NG=F punch at $3.19–$3.22 and re-test $3.301. Context matters: total inventories were 6.7% above seasonal norms after the prior +48 Bcf surprise build, and still 3.9% below last year. One light injection won’t erase the overhang, but two in a row would.
Global Balances: Europe Is Comfy, Asia Is Not Chasing, LNG Still Moves The Needle
European storage sits near ~70% full versus a ~78% five-year seasonal, and front-month TTF slipped below €34/MWh, a tell that oversupply fears haven’t left the continent. Italy and France crossed ~79% capacity, Norwegian pipes are steady, and LNG cargoes continue to land. That dulls the impulse for U.S. LNG pull-through unless the heat persists or an outage flares. The offset: U.S. LNG exports ran ~+18% y/y in May, and liquefaction uptime into late summer remains robust—any incremental trains staying online keeps the floor under bids around $2.97–$3.04.
Macro Pass-Through: When Gas Jumps, Bills Bite—and That Feedback Loop Matters
Spot gas spiked to $4.12/MMBtu in March (from $1.49 in March ’24), then eased to $3.02 in June ($2.54 a year earlier). Utilities passed through the fuel line-item—Louisiana saw July residential bills up +8% y/y on 1,000 kWh, with one IOU logging +29% and another +20%. Higher power bills can shave demand at the margin later in the shoulder season as conservation kicks in, which argues for fading blow-off spikes unless the weather shock persists.
Technical Map For NG=F: What The Tape Has To Do, In Order
A bullish three-day reversal triggered Wednesday remains alive as long as price holds $3.04 and the former downtrend line just reclaimed as support. The anchored VWAP from the recent swing sits near $2.97; lose it, and momentum stalls. Daily RSI bounced to ~44, still sub-neutral; bulls need >50 to legitimize a run at the triangle’s descending rail near $3.45. The market is also wearing a medium-term death cross (50-day < 200-day), which keeps rallies provisional until that structure heals. Upside marks: $3.19, $3.22 (20-DMA), $3.301 pivot, $3.45 and then $3.60 (50-DMA). Downside marks: $3.02 trendline, $2.97 AVWAP, $2.90–$2.85 shelf; below $2.85 opens a vacuum toward $2.58 and even $2.30 if the triangle breaks south.
Positioning And Flow: This Bounce Looks Like Shorts Running, Not New Money Flooding
The character of the move—fast, thin, resistant at scripted levels—reads like short-covering more than sticky length deploying. You can see it in how price tagged $3.15 and immediately respected the nearby caps. To convert a squeeze into trend, we need breadth: hotter-for-longer weather, a second straight sub-average EIA build, and evidence of stickier power burn, not just a headline pop.
Scenario Board For The Next 1–3 Weeks
Bullish continuation: EIA prints single-digit again next week, weather models hold hot into late August, and NG=F settles above $3.301. That opens $3.45 then $3.60, with stretch targets $3.80–$3.90 if cash markets confirm Tighten-and-fade: We pop through $3.19–$3.22, stall at $3.30–$3.45, and fall back to the $3.02–$2.97 pivot where dip-buyers defend. Range holds until storage re-asserts Bearish break: A cooler shift and a normal-to-high EIA injection knock futures below $2.90–$2.85; momentum accelerates toward $2.58 and potentially $2.30 as the multi-month triangle resolves down
Strategy, Risk, And A Clear Call On NG=F
This tape earns a Hold with a tactical bullish bias while above $2.97. For traders, the asymmetric setup is to buy pullbacks into $3.02–$2.97 with risk defined below $2.85, targeting $3.30 first, then $3.45–$3.60 if EIA confirms tightness. If NG=F fails $2.97 on a closing basis or the EIA print lands closer to the +20s Bcf five-year band, flip to Sell on a break below $2.85, with $2.58 as the first destination and $2.30 in play on momentum. The investment posture for non-levered exposure is Hold until a decisive weekly close either above $3.45 (uptrend confirmed, add) or below $2.85 (downtrend confirmed, reduce). The facts on the ground—107.9 Bcf/d supply, inventories 6.7% above norms, Europe cushioned near 70% full, and weather-driven power burn—say you respect resistance, buy only with defined risk, and let the $3.301 pivot tell you whether this is a squeeze or the start of a trend.
