NFLX ($65.69) Trades at 19x Earnings Despite a 34.6% Margin — Path Back to $72.56 Needs Engagement Proof
Netflix grew operating income 37% and bought back a record $4.8B of stock | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- Netflix falls 4.37% to $65.69 after hitting $64.10, its lowest level in more than two years.
- Netflix cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast by $300 million to $2.7 billion.
- Q3 operating margin reached 34.6%, up from 28.2%, as operating income rose 37% to $4.46 billion.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) traded at $65.69 on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, down $3.01 or 4.37% from Tuesday’s close of $68.69, after reporting third-quarter results on Tuesday evening. The stock opened at $64.13, set an intraday low of $64.10, and recovered to a session high of $67.12 before settling back near $65.69. Volume reached 44.7 million shares, above the 34.3 million daily average. At $65.69, Netflix carries a market value of $272.7 billion on 4.16 billion shares outstanding, down from $285.9 billion at Tuesday’s close.
The intraday low marked a new 52-week low and the stock’s weakest level in more than two years. The previous 52-week low was $65.08, set on July 17, 2026. The 52-week high is $124.86, set on October 21, 2025, exactly one year ago, which means Netflix has lost 47.4% from its peak. The stock is down 26.9% year to date. If Wednesday’s losses hold, the company will have shed $17 billion of market value in a single session. The selling started before the report: Netflix fell 1.66% on Tuesday’s regular session from $69.85, and dropped 5.93% in after-hours trading once results hit.
The reaction runs against the headline numbers. Netflix earned $0.87 per diluted share, beating the $0.82 consensus and up 49% from $0.59 a year earlier. Operating income rose 37% to $4.46 billion, and operating margin reached 34.6%, up from 28.2% a year earlier and above the company’s own 33.2% forecast. Net income rose 44% to $3.66 billion. Netflix repurchased $4.8 billion of stock in the quarter, its largest buyback ever.
This forecast runs on a single thesis. Netflix’s profit engine is stronger than at any point in its history, but the market has stopped paying for profits and started pricing a growth slowdown. Revenue grew 11.8%, the slowest pace in nearly three years. The company cut its 2026 advertising revenue forecast by $300 million to $2.7 billion, guided fourth-quarter revenue and earnings below consensus, and faces questions about falling engagement. At 19 times trailing earnings, the stock trades at its lowest multiple in years. The $64.10 low is the line: holding it sets up a range of $64 to $72 while the market waits for proof that engagement and advertising are recovering. Losing it opens $60 and the $57 low end of analyst targets.
At least 14 brokerages lowered their price targets after the results. Several downgraded the stock, citing concerns that rising competition drives margin compression and slowing revenue growth.
Q3 Results: $12.874 Billion Revenue, 34.6% Margin, $0.87 EPS
Netflix’s third-quarter shareholder letter showed a quarter that met revenue expectations and beat on every profit line. Revenue reached $12.874 billion, up 11.8% from $11.51 billion a year earlier, or 11% on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis. That was in line with the company’s own forecast and $2 million short of the $12.876 billion consensus. Revenue growth was driven primarily by subscription revenue, reflecting increases in memberships and pricing, along with growth in advertising revenue and a favorable currency impact net of hedging.
Profitability was the standout. Operating income totaled $4.459 billion, up 37% from $3.248 billion a year earlier. Operating margin of 34.6% compared with 28.2% in the third quarter of 2025, an expansion of 640 basis points. Both figures beat the company’s forecast, which Netflix attributed mainly to the timing of expenses and slight revenue upside. Net income reached $3.664 billion, up 44% from $2.547 billion, for a net margin of 28.5%. Diluted EPS of $0.87 compared with $0.59 a year earlier.
Cash generation stayed strong. Free cash flow reached $2.884 billion in the quarter. Content assets stood at $34.6 billion. Netflix spent $4.8 billion on share repurchases, its largest quarterly buyback, and gross debt rose $1 billion from the second quarter as the company funded part of that buyback with borrowing.
The quarter shows how far Netflix’s operating leverage has come. The company generated $34.60 of operating profit for every $100 of revenue, against $28.20 a year earlier. Operating income grew at three times the rate of revenue. Content amortization, the largest cost line, has grown more slowly in the second half of 2026 after rising faster in the first half due to the timing of title launches, and Netflix expects it to rise about 10% for the full year.
The year-to-date path set up the third quarter. First-quarter revenue grew 16% with a 32.3% operating margin and EPS of $1.23. Second-quarter revenue reached $12.6 billion, up 13%, with operating income of $4.2 billion and a 33.4% margin. Third-quarter growth of 11.8% continued the deceleration from 16% to 13% to under 12%.
The market’s problem with the quarter is not what happened but what it implies. Revenue growth has slowed in each quarter of 2026, and the fourth-quarter guidance shows the slowdown continuing. Profit growth driven by expense timing and margin expansion cannot offset decelerating revenue indefinitely.
The Guidance Miss: Q4 Revenue $13.442 Billion, EPS $0.67
The fourth-quarter outlook triggered the selloff. Netflix guided fourth-quarter revenue to $13.442 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 12%, or 11% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by growth in memberships, pricing and advertising revenue. Consensus had expected $13.517 billion. The $75 million shortfall is 0.6% below estimates, a small miss in dollar terms but a signal that growth is not reaccelerating.
Earnings guidance missed by a wider margin. Netflix guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.67, against a $0.73 consensus, an 8% shortfall. The company projects a fourth-quarter operating margin of 26%, up from 24.5% a year earlier, but that includes a negative impact of about 120 basis points from recently announced headcount reductions. Without the restructuring charge, the fourth-quarter margin would be near 27.2%.
Full-year guidance narrowed toward the low end. Netflix now expects 2026 revenue of $51.1 billion, 0.2% below the midpoint of its prior range. The original 2026 guidance issued in January called for $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, representing 12% to 14% growth. At $51.1 billion, full-year growth lands at 13% from fiscal 2025 revenue of $45.2 billion. Netflix said subscription revenue growth has outperformed its expectations, which means advertising accounts for the shortfall.
The operating margin target held. Netflix maintained its 2026 operating margin target of 31.5%, up from 29.5% in 2025, and its forecast implies annual operating income growth of 20% or more. At $51.1 billion of revenue and a 31.5% margin, full-year operating income would reach $16.1 billion. The company also trimmed its 2026 free cash flow outlook.
The guidance pattern explains the stock’s reaction. Netflix has delivered or beaten its own forecasts on profitability all year, but revenue has drifted toward the low end of its range. Investors who bought Netflix for durable double-digit growth now see a company growing revenue at 11% to 12% with margins doing the heavy lifting. Fourth-quarter revenue growth of 11.5% would mark the slowest quarter of the year.
The restructuring charge adds context. Netflix announced headcount reductions and an executive shakeup ahead of the quarter. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the changes were a step toward focusing on the core business of producing quality TV shows and movies to make Netflix a must-have service. Cost cuts support margins but signal that management sees a need to reset after a period of slowing growth.
Advertising: $2.7 Billion Instead of $3 Billion
The advertising cut is the single number that did the most damage. Netflix now expects 2026 advertising revenue of about $2.7 billion, down from approximately $3 billion previously. The company attributed the $300 million reduction to a slower-than-expected rollout of some ad product capabilities. Co-CEO Greg Peters said advertising revenue is still expanding more than 80% this year, but acknowledged the company fell behind internal targets because of delays in rolling out ad tech features and partner integrations.
The context shows how central advertising has become to the Netflix story. In fiscal 2025, ad revenue rose more than 2.5 times to over $1.5 billion. At the start of 2026, Netflix forecast that ad revenue would roughly double. A $2.7 billion result would represent growth of 80% or more, strong in absolute terms but short of the doubling investors had priced.
Advertising is a small share of revenue but a large share of the growth narrative. At $2.7 billion, ads represent 5.3% of Netflix’s $51.1 billion in projected 2026 revenue. But advertising is the business line expected to drive growth as subscription revenue matures in developed markets. Ad-supported memberships grew 35% and drive more than half of new sign-ups in markets where the ad tier is sold. The ad tier’s scale is what investors expected to lift margins and revenue over the next several years.
The shortfall raises questions about execution. Netflix built its own ad technology platform rather than relying entirely on partners, and the rollout delays suggest that platform is taking longer to reach full capability than planned. Advertisers want measurement, targeting and programmatic buying tools that match what YouTube, Meta and Amazon offer. Each delay pushes revenue into later periods and gives competitors more time to win advertiser budgets.
The ad cut also connects to the broader advertising market. Meta Platforms reports after Wednesday’s close, and its ad revenue results will show whether the digital advertising market is strong overall. A strong Meta print would suggest Netflix’s shortfall is company-specific execution, which could be fixed. A weak one would suggest the advertising market itself is softening, which would raise concerns about Netflix’s ad growth in 2027.
For the stock, the ad business now has to prove itself again. Netflix is not expected to report ad revenue detail every quarter, which means investors will rely on management commentary and the annual guidance. A 2027 ad forecast that resets expectations credibly, issued with fourth-quarter results in January, would be the next opportunity to rebuild confidence.
Engagement: Viewing Hours Under Pressure
The deeper concern behind the selloff is engagement. Management acknowledged investor concerns about growth in viewing hours and said it aims to accelerate that growth. One measure of viewing time per member fell from 66 hours in the first half of 2023 to 49 hours in the first half of 2026, a decline of 26%. Netflix has also announced it will shift to publishing its viewing report annually in the first quarter, starting in 2027, rather than twice a year, which reduces visibility into engagement trends.
Engagement matters because both of Netflix’s revenue streams depend on it. Subscription revenue depends on members seeing enough value to keep paying as prices rise. Advertising revenue depends on hours viewed on the ad tier, because ad inventory scales with viewing time. Falling engagement per member limits both pricing power and ad inventory.
Competition for attention has intensified. Netflix competes not only with other streaming services but with YouTube, short-form video platforms and video games for leisure time. The streaming giant faces what has been described as an attention scarcity issue. Management argued that engagement remained healthy given the response to this year’s price increases, which went as expected in the U.S. and Canada, but the market wants evidence that viewing is growing.
Netflix’s content strategy is shifting in response. Sarandos said the company would focus on its core business of producing quality TV and film to make Netflix a must-have service, and said the executive shakeup was a step toward that goal. Netflix also announced a content licensing agreement with Brazil’s Globo, which adds local programming in a key growth market. The emphasis on bigger U.S. hits suggests management sees a need for more breakout programming to drive viewing.
The membership base remains large. Netflix crossed 325 million paid memberships in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers in 2025, focusing instead on revenue and operating margin as its primary metrics. That shift means engagement data and revenue growth are now the main windows into member health.
For the stock, engagement is the variable that could reverse the narrative. If viewing hours stabilize and the ad tier keeps adding members, the ad shortfall becomes a timing issue and revenue growth can reaccelerate. If viewing keeps declining, both pricing and advertising face limits, and the current revenue deceleration could continue into 2027.
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Valuation: 19 Times Trailing Earnings, the Cheapest in Years
The selloff has pushed Netflix to its lowest valuation in years. At $65.69, the stock trades at 19.0 times trailing earnings per share of $3.46. On forward earnings, the multiple stood at 20.14 at Tuesday’s close and sits near 19.3 times after Wednesday’s decline. Trailing revenue of $48.37 billion gives a price-to-sales ratio of 5.6 times. Trailing net income stands at $13.65 billion, up 33.2% from a year earlier.
Those multiples are low by Netflix’s standards. A year ago, at its 52-week high of $124.86, the stock traded at a far higher multiple on lower earnings. The 47% decline from that peak has occurred while operating income and net income grew more than 30%, which means the entire decline has come from multiple compression.
The comparison with media and tech peers frames the valuation. Netflix sits between Disney and Spotify on valuation, with a forward multiple near 19, revenue growth of 13.4%, and an operating margin above 33%. Disney trades at a lower multiple with slower growth and lower margins. Spotify trades at a higher multiple with faster revenue growth but lower margins. Netflix’s combination of double-digit growth and a margin above 30% is rare in media.
Capital returns support the valuation. Netflix repurchased $4.8 billion of stock in the third quarter, equal to 1.8% of its current market value. The company had $27.1 billion of buyback capacity remaining before the quarter. At the current price, a $4.8 billion quarterly pace would retire 73 million shares per quarter, or 1.8% of shares outstanding. Sustained buybacks at depressed prices increase per-share earnings growth even if net income growth slows.
Analyst targets point well above the current price. The average 12-month target from 52 analysts stands at $90.75 to $91.39, 38% above $65.69, with a range of $57 to $126. At least 14 brokerages cut targets after the results, and the average fell from higher levels. The consensus rating remains Buy. The lowest target of $57 sits 13% below current levels.
Valuation alone has not stopped the decline. The stock has traded near a 52-week low for months, and investors have shown they will not pay a growth multiple for a company whose revenue growth is decelerating. A low multiple becomes a catalyst only when the growth outlook stabilizes.
Technical Levels: $64.10 Floor, $68.69 to $72.56 Overhead
The chart puts Netflix at a critical support. Wednesday’s intraday low of $64.10 is the new 52-week low and the lowest price in more than two years. The prior 52-week low of $65.08, set on July 17, 2026, broke during the session, and the stock now trades just above that former support. A level near $65.52 was cited as a key support before the open, and Wednesday’s recovery to $65.69 has held just above it.
Resistance starts at $67.12, Wednesday’s high. Above it, $68.69 is Tuesday’s close and the level from which the post-earnings gap opened. The $69.85 to $70.66 zone marks Tuesday’s open, Monday’s close and the pre-earnings high. The $72.56 level is where Netflix traded the week before earnings, after a 4.1% weekly gain. Above that, the stock sits below its 200-day simple moving average, which marks the longer-term downtrend line.
On the downside, $64.10 is the line that matters. A close below it would confirm a breakdown to new two-year lows and open $62, then $60, the round number. The $57 level, the lowest analyst target, is the next downside reference.
Distances from $65.69 define the risk. The upside to $68.69 is 4.6%, to $72.56 is 10.5%, and to the $90.75 average target is 38%. The downside to $64.10 is 2.4%, to $60 is 8.7%, and to $57 is 13.2%.
The intraday pattern offers a mild positive signal. Netflix opened at $64.13, made its low at $64.10 within the first trading minutes, and rallied to $67.12, a 4.7% recovery off the low. After the initial drop, shares traded as high as $66.53, down 3.3% from the previous close, before settling lower. Buyers stepped in at the open rather than letting the stock extend its after-hours decline.
Netflix shares are not usually volatile. The stock has had only eight moves greater than 5% over the past year. A 4.4% decline on earnings day is in line with the options-implied move, which suggests the market priced this reaction.
The key signal is the close relative to $64.10 and $65.08. A close above $65.08 would show the prior 52-week low is holding as support. A close near $64 would leave the door open to further selling as funds that track momentum reduce positions.
Competition: YouTube, Disney and the Attention Economy
Netflix’s growth slowdown comes as competition for viewers and advertisers intensifies. YouTube dominates streaming viewing time on televisions in the U.S. and competes directly for both audiences and ad budgets. Short-form video platforms compete for the same leisure hours. Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount and others continue to invest in streaming, and several have bundled their services to reduce churn.
Analysts have flagged competition as the core risk. One downgrade warned that rising competition drives margin compression and slowing revenue growth at Netflix. That concern centers on content costs: if Netflix needs to spend more on programming to defend engagement, the margin expansion that drove third-quarter profit growth would slow.
Netflix’s response has been to focus on scale and quality. With more than 325 million paid memberships, Netflix has the largest global subscriber base in streaming, which lets it spread content costs across more members than any rival. Its operating margin of 34.6% is far above competitors, many of which are still working toward consistent streaming profitability. That margin gives Netflix room to spend more on content without losing money.
Advertising competition is fiercer. Netflix entered advertising late compared with YouTube, Meta, Amazon and broadcast television. Its ad tier offers premium, brand-safe inventory, but advertisers expect the measurement and targeting tools that more established platforms offer. The rollout delays behind the $300 million ad cut suggest Netflix is still building those capabilities.
Live content and sports represent a new front. Netflix has added live events and sports rights to drive engagement and attract advertisers, who pay premium rates for live audiences. Those rights carry high costs and require infrastructure to deliver live streams reliably. Their success will shape both engagement and ad revenue in 2027.
International markets remain a growth driver. Netflix delivered double-digit revenue growth in all regions in the second quarter, surpassing quarterly revenue of $4.0 billion in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and $1.5 billion in both Latin America and Asia-Pacific. The Globo licensing deal strengthens its position in Brazil. Growth in the U.S. and Canada slowed to 10% in the second quarter, which shows how much Netflix depends on international markets for its double-digit growth.
Market Backdrop: Meta Tonight, 10-Year at 5.12%
Netflix falls on a day when the broader market is rising. The S&P 500 traded higher and the Nasdaq rallied as SpaceX’s results and Super Micro Computer’s sales preannouncement revived the AI trade. Netflix is not part of that AI hardware story, and its decline stands out against a risk-on session. Netflix was among the weakest stocks in communication services on Tuesday, along with Meta and Alphabet.
Meta reports after Wednesday’s close, with its call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Meta’s advertising revenue trends will offer a direct read on the digital ad market. Strong ad growth at Meta would suggest Netflix’s shortfall is company-specific, which supports the view that execution can be fixed. Weak ad growth would raise concerns that the digital advertising market is slowing, which would weigh on Netflix’s ad outlook for 2027.
Macro conditions weigh on growth stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.12%, and the Federal Reserve is priced for an 89% to 94% chance of a December hike. High yields compress the multiples investors are willing to pay for future earnings, which helps explain why Netflix’s multiple has fallen to 19 times even as earnings grew 44%. A Fed that signals December as its final hike on October 28 would ease pressure on growth multiples.
Consumer spending matters for subscriptions. Higher energy prices, with Brent crude near $109, and higher borrowing costs squeeze household budgets. Streaming subscriptions are discretionary, and price-sensitive members may trade down to cheaper ad-supported tiers or cancel. Netflix’s price increases this year went as expected, but further increases will face a tighter consumer.
Earnings season has punished soft guidance across sectors. Intuitive Surgical fell 7.5% premarket despite beating estimates, and General Motors fell 6.84% on Tuesday after beating but guiding below consensus. Netflix fits that pattern: a beat on profit, a miss on outlook, and a sharp decline. Companies that beat and raise have rallied, while those that beat and guide lower have sold off.
The market’s message is clear. Investors are paying for growth and visible upside, and penalizing any sign of deceleration. Netflix needs to show revenue growth stabilizing at 12% or better and advertising regaining momentum to reverse the de-rating.
Catalysts: Meta Tonight, Fed October 28, Q4 Results in January
The next catalyst arrives within hours. Meta’s third-quarter results and ad revenue commentary after Wednesday’s close will set the tone for digital advertising stocks. Netflix’s ad business is small compared with Meta’s, but the read-through on advertiser demand matters for Netflix’s 2027 ad growth.
Price target revisions will continue through the week. At least 14 brokerages cut targets on Wednesday, and further revisions could pressure the stock if they include additional downgrades. Most targets remain well above the current price, with the average near $91, which provides support from investors who view the selloff as overdone.
The Federal Reserve meets October 27 to 28. A press conference that frames December as the final hike would ease pressure on growth multiples and support a rebound in Netflix. A hawkish signal would extend the de-rating.
Netflix’s next earnings report arrives on or around January 19, 2027, when the company will report fourth-quarter results and issue full-year 2027 guidance. That guidance will be the next major test. A 2027 revenue forecast with growth of 12% or more and a credible ad revenue outlook would reset the narrative. A forecast showing further deceleration would confirm the market’s concerns.
Content releases matter between reports. Netflix’s fourth-quarter slate, including holiday programming and live events, will drive viewing hours and subscriber retention. Strong engagement around major releases would ease concerns about falling viewing time. Third-party viewing data and Netflix’s own top-10 lists offer interim signals.
Ad product rollouts are the operational catalyst. Netflix said the ad shortfall came from slower-than-expected rollout of some ad product capabilities and partner integrations. Announcements that those capabilities are live, or new partnerships with ad tech providers, would signal the delays are resolved.
Capital returns provide a steady bid. Netflix’s $4.8 billion third-quarter buyback was its largest ever. If the company continues repurchasing at that pace at depressed prices, it will absorb a meaningful share of selling and support per-share earnings growth.
Bull and Bear Cases After the Selloff
The bull case rests on profitability and valuation. Netflix’s operating margin of 34.6% is the highest in its history, operating income grew 37%, and net income grew 44% to $3.66 billion. The company maintains its 31.5% full-year margin target and expects operating income growth of 20% or more in 2026. At 19 times trailing earnings, the stock trades at its lowest multiple in years. The record $4.8 billion buyback shows management sees value at these prices. Advertising is still growing more than 80% in 2026, and the ad tier drives more than half of new sign-ups where it is offered. If engagement stabilizes and the ad rollout catches up, revenue growth can hold at 12% and the multiple can recover toward 25 times, which would put the stock near $86, close to the analyst consensus.
The bear case rests on growth. Revenue growth slowed to 11.8% in the third quarter, the slowest in nearly three years, and fourth-quarter guidance points to 11.5%. Advertising guidance fell $300 million, showing execution problems in the business line meant to drive future growth. Viewing time per member fell 26% from 2023 to 2026, and Netflix is reducing the frequency of its viewing reports. Competition from YouTube and short-form video is intensifying. Fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.67 missed consensus by 8%, and headcount reductions signal a cost reset. If revenue growth slows to 10% in 2027, the stock could de-rate further toward 16 to 17 times earnings, putting it near $57 to $60.
The middle ground reflects the current setup. Netflix is a highly profitable company with slowing growth, priced at a multiple that reflects that slowdown. The stock is unlikely to recover quickly without evidence of reacceleration, but its valuation and buyback limit downside.
The $64.10 low is the hinge between these cases. Holding it suggests the market has priced the bear case at current levels. Breaking it suggests investors expect further deterioration.
Forecast Scenarios: $72.56 Upside, $57 Downside, $64.10 Pivot
The base case is a range between $64 and $72 into the January earnings report. Netflix’s valuation at 19 times earnings, its record buyback, and an average analyst target near $91 provide support near $64. Slowing revenue growth, the ad cut and engagement concerns cap rallies below the $72.56 pre-earnings level. Within that range, the stock is likely to drift with broader growth-stock sentiment and Meta’s ad read-through.
The bullish scenario requires a catalyst that challenges the slowdown narrative. A strong Meta ad report showing the digital ad market is healthy would frame Netflix’s shortfall as company-specific and fixable. A Fed that signals December as its last hike would ease pressure on growth multiples. Evidence of stronger engagement around fourth-quarter releases or announcements that delayed ad capabilities are live would support the story. With two or more of those in place, Netflix would reclaim $68.69, its pre-earnings close, then test $70.66 and $72.56, 10.5% above current levels. A sustained move toward $80 would require January guidance that shows 2027 revenue growth stabilizing at 12% or more.
The bearish scenario starts with a close below $64.10. That would confirm a break to new two-year lows and trigger selling from momentum-driven funds. A weak Meta ad report, further brokerage downgrades, or a hawkish Fed would accelerate the move. Netflix would target $62, then $60, 8.7% below current levels, and the $57 low analyst target, 13.2% lower. At $57, the stock would trade near 16.5 times trailing earnings.
The probability weighting favors the range. The stock has already fallen 47% from its high, the multiple has compressed to 19 times, and the company is buying back stock at a record pace. Those factors limit the downside. But the absence of a near-term growth catalyst until January limits the upside. The pivot is $64.10: a close above $65.08 confirms support, while a close below $64.10 opens the downside path.
Verdict: Neutral Above $64.10, Bearish Below
Netflix at $65.69 is neutral while it holds above $64.10, with a bearish turn on a close below that level. The third-quarter results showed a company more profitable than ever: operating margin of 34.6% against 28.2% a year earlier, operating income up 37% to $4.46 billion, net income up 44% to $3.66 billion, EPS of $0.87 against $0.82 expected, and a record $4.8 billion buyback. The company maintained its 31.5% full-year margin target and expects operating income growth of 20% or more.
The market looked past those numbers to the growth outlook. Revenue grew 11.8%, the slowest in nearly three years. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $13.442 billion missed the $13.517 billion consensus, and EPS guidance of $0.67 missed $0.73 by 8%. Full-year revenue landed at $51.1 billion, below the midpoint of the original range. Advertising guidance fell $300 million to $2.7 billion on delayed ad product rollouts. Viewing time per member has fallen 26% since 2023. At least 14 brokerages cut targets, and the stock fell to its lowest level in more than two years.
The valuation now reflects that slowdown. At 19 times trailing earnings and 5.6 times trailing sales, Netflix trades at its lowest multiple in years, 47.4% below its 52-week high of $124.86, with an average analyst target of $90.75 to $91.39, 38% above the current price.
The levels decide the call. A close above $68.69 reclaims the pre-earnings level and opens $72.56. A close below $64.10 opens $60 and $57. Meta’s ad results tonight, the October 28 Fed decision and the January earnings report with 2027 guidance set the path, and engagement data is the variable that will decide whether the de-rating reverses.