Oil Price Forecast - Brent Hovers Around $68, WTI Slides Toward $62 as Iran Talks and Saudi Price Cuts Hit Oil

Oil Price Today – Brent (BZ=F) and WTI (CL=F) pinned in the low-$60s under geopolitical and macro crossfire

CL=F and BZ=F – trading levels, volatility and weekly damage

WTI futures CL=F are holding in a tight but heavy band in the low-$60s, recently orbiting roughly $62.5–$64.0 per barrel after another soft session, while Brent BZ=F is sitting just under $68, with recent prints around $67–$68.5. Brent has traded near $68.09 and WTI around $63.9, modestly above Thursday’s close but clearly below Monday’s marks, locking in the first weekly decline of 2026 after a seven-week run-up driven more by risk premium than by demand strength. Intraday behavior is classic late-trend fatigue: one-day pops of 2–3% on U.S.–Iran headlines that fade into closes lower in the week, with CL=F oscillating around $62–$64 and BZ=F chopping between about $66.9 and $68.8 rather than establishing new momentum higher.

Geopolitics and BZ=F – U.S.–Iran Oman talks keep the Strait of Hormuz premium alive but capped

The core geopolitical driver for BZ=F is the negotiation track between Washington and Tehran in Oman. Iran exports roughly 3.4 million barrels per day and controls the Strait of Hormuz, which carries close to 20% of global oil liquids. That is why a single report about talks being “called off” can push Brent up more than 3%, as happened when BZ=F spiked toward $69.5 before retracing once Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the meeting was still on. The market is already pricing a non-zero probability of a misstep that briefly disrupts flows or triggers naval incidents around Hormuz, and that premium is embedded in BZ=F at ~$68. At the same time, the longer the two sides sit in the same room without missiles flying, the easier it becomes for macro desks to fade that risk premium and re-anchor valuations to supply, demand and inventory data rather than “what-if” scenarios.

Saudi Aramco pricing and Brent (BZ=F) – four straight OSP cuts signal softer Asian demand

The sharpest fundamental tell for BZ=F is Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut official selling prices again. For March, Aramco moved Arab Light to Asia down to parity with the Oman/Dubai average, a 30-cent cut from February and the lowest differential since December 2020. Heavier grades to Asia were cut by about $0.40 a barrel, and prices for all grades into the U.S., Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean were also reduced. When the largest exporter in the system pushes its flagship grade down to benchmark rather than commanding a premium, it is effectively admitting that refiners are pushing back on pricing and that demand does not justify aggressive differentials. For BZ=F, that means the futures strip is being held up by OPEC+ policy and geopolitics while the physical barrel is quietly being discounted to keep flows moving. That divergence is not sustainable indefinitely: either Asian product margins and refinery runs improve, or Brent’s paper market needs to adjust lower to reflect weaker realized buying power.

OPEC+, inventories and CL=F – supply restraint masks a market that is not genuinely tight

OPEC+ left output policy unchanged for March and provided no firm guidance beyond Q1. That effectively keeps a soft floor under CL=F and BZ=F: the group is willing to defend prices from collapsing into the mid-$50s but does not want to reignite a rush toward $80+ that would trigger fresh non-OPEC supply and political backlash. U.S. inventory data fit that narrative. Commercial crude stocks, excluding the SPR, fell by around 3.5 million barrels to roughly 420 million, about 4% below the five-year seasonal average. On a headline level, that looks constructive for CL=F, but it needs to be read against Saudi OSP cuts and a relatively calm spot market. Draws of a few million barrels in a world with slowing demand growth and weaker product cracks do not justify a new bull leg by themselves. OPEC+ is essentially buying time: the cartel’s discipline prevents a disorderly crash in CL=F, but absent a demand surprise the same policy also caps the upside because every rally encourages cheating, hedging and opportunistic supply.

EU sanctions, Russian barrels and BZ=F – structural support for clean benchmarks outside the “shadow fleet”

On the sanctions front, the European Union has moved from calibration to escalation. The new package bans EU financial, legal, insurance and other maritime services for any shipment of Russian crude or refined products, effectively making the G7 price cap irrelevant inside EU jurisdiction because there is no longer a compliance carve-out: Russian cargoes simply cannot access EU-linked service providers, regardless of price. That forces more Russian barrels into a smaller “shadow fleet” of older tankers operating under opaque flags and insurance, and concentrates flows into buyers such as India and China who demand deeper discounts to compensate for sanctions, logistics and financing risk. For BZ=F, this is structurally supportive. European and aligned refiners are pushed further toward non-Russian grades, strengthening demand for Brent-linked streams and North Sea blends. The impact is greatest on differentials and spreads rather than outright price: Urals and other Russian grades must trade at steeper discounts, while BZ=F maintains a firmer floor than it otherwise would at the same macro backdrop.

Technical structure in CL=F and BZ=F – range-bound with a rising trendline and a clearly defined downside trigger

Technically, CL=F is trading in a defined range with an upward bias. On the daily timeframe, WTI has been consolidating between roughly $66.4 on the topside and $62.4 on the downside in recent weeks, with a rising trendline under price that originates from the autumn lows. That trendline is where systematic and discretionary accounts repeatedly step in: each time CL=F drifts into the lower $60s and tags that line, buy programs appear, and price rotates back toward the upper band. On the four-hour chart, that dynamic is even clearer. The line is acting as a pivot for short-horizon strategies that run tight risk below it and targets toward previous local highs. The first real technical warning shot only comes if CL=F breaks decisively below that trendline and pushes toward the $58.8 region that many desks mark as the next strong support. BZ=F is behaving slightly better than CL=F, consistently holding a multi-dollar premium and finding demand when it dips into the mid-$60s. That reflects the Hormuz risk premium and stronger pull from sanctions-constrained refiners, and it keeps the Brent–WTI spread wide enough to incentivize some seaborne arbitrage into the Atlantic Basin.

Macro overlays – dollar strength, Fed tone and cross-asset risk-off limit upside for CL=F and BZ=F

Macro conditions are not set up for a runaway rally in CL=F or BZ=F. The dollar index has bounced off its lows as Fed officials lean more hawkish, explicitly saying they are not prepared to cut rates again without clean evidence that disinflation has resumed. A stronger dollar directly raises the local-currency price of WTI and Brent for non-U.S. buyers, dampening incremental demand. At the same time, risk assets more broadly are under pressure: crypto has endured forced deleveraging, equities have rolled over from recent highs and even gold and silver have seen violent two-way swings. When cross-asset volatility spikes, capital allocators reduce gross exposure across the board, and commodities are not exempt. In that environment, CL=F in the low-$60s and BZ=F near $68 are high enough that profit-taking is rational but not high enough to trigger panicked short-covering. The macro message is simple: conditions are too fragile to support a sustainable move back above the low-$70s on WTI without a new shock, yet not weak enough to justify a structural collapse below the high-$50s unless global growth data deteriorate sharply.

Positioning and flows – trimmed speculative length, normalized physical flows and a two-sided tape

Positioning in CL=F and BZ=F has normalized from the extremes seen earlier in the risk-premium build-up. Managed money has reduced net long exposure, shedding some of the trend-following length accumulated during the seven-week rally, but has not flipped into a large structural short. Books are smaller and turnover is higher, which is exactly what you expect in a noisy, headline-driven market where no single narrative dominates. Physical flows reinforce that two-sided picture. India continues to buy discounted Russian crude while watching U.S.–India trade dynamics; China is opportunistic rather than aggressive; U.S. shale producers are maintaining capital discipline and are not rushing to flood the market with incremental barrels at $62–$64 WTI. That combination means there is no obvious supply shock on the horizon, but also no wall of new demand to absorb every dip. The result is a market where CL=F can trade between roughly $58 and $68 for an extended period, with temporary breakouts on geopolitical noise and quick mean-reversions when those headlines fade.

CL=F / BZ=F – buy, sell or hold at current levels with WTI around the low-$60s and Brent just under $70

Putting the pieces together, the picture is precise. CL=F around the low-$60s and BZ=F near $68 are sitting on the intersection of four forces: a stubborn but not unlimited U.S.–Iran risk premium, Saudi and OPEC+ policy engineered to protect a floor but not a spike, sanctions that structurally support non-Russian benchmarks, and macro conditions that lean against aggressive risk-on behavior. The tape is not screaming for a collapse, because OPEC+ discipline, EU sanctions on Russian flows and U.S. inventory levels prevent a disorderly oversupply. It is also not signaling a sustainable surge, because Saudi OSP cuts, cautious Asian demand and a firm dollar cap the willingness of refiners and macro funds to pay materially higher prices. In that setting, oil exposure via CL=F and BZ=F at current levels is best treated as a controlled-risk Buy with a hard line in the sand around $58–$60 on WTI. Above that zone, the structural support from sanctions and producer discipline, plus the ever-present Hormuz premium, argues that dips are more attractive than rips. A clean break of $58 in CL=F, accompanied by weaker demand data and softer Brent, would flip that stance to neutral or outright short, but until that technical damage is done, the balance of fact-based evidence still favors maintaining upside exposure with disciplined risk controls rather than abandoning oil altogether.

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