SoFi Technologies Stock Price Forecast: SOFI Stock Reprices Around $20.84 After $1B Quarter and 2026 Profit Surge

SoFi Technologies Stock – NASDAQ:SOFI repriced after a sentiment-driven meltdown

NASDAQ:SOFI – Price, trading range and what the market is really discounting now

SoFi Technologies stock (NASDAQ:SOFI) is trading around the low-$20s, with prints near $20.84 after a previous close at $19.46. The shares are moving inside a 52-week range of $8.60 to $32.73 and imply a market capitalization in the roughly $25–26 billion zone. At current levels the stock has surrendered more than a third of its late-2025 rally, even as the business has just delivered its first $1 billion revenue quarter, nine consecutive GAAP-profitable quarters and a raised 2026 outlook. The core disconnect is clear: the business is behaving like a scalable fintech platform with bank economics, while the stock has been repriced closer to a volatile financial cyclical that the market is de-rating on macro and regulatory fears rather than on company-specific deterioration.

SOFI – Revenue scale passes $1 billion per quarter and the mix tilts toward fee income

Q4 2025 pushed adjusted net revenue to roughly $1.01 billion, up around 37–38% year over year, taking full-year adjusted net revenue to about $3.59 billion with a similar growth rate. Fee-based revenue – the strategic driver that proves SoFi is more than a leveraged loan book – reached roughly $443–444 million in Q4, growing about 52–53% year over year. That fee stream is now responsible for the majority of incremental growth and is rising faster than total revenue. For 2026 management is guiding to approximately $4.65–4.66 billion of adjusted net revenue, implying near-30% year-over-year growth from an already scaled base. At the same time guidance calls for adjusted EPS around $0.60, more than 50% above 2025 levels, which means EPS is compounding even faster than the top line as operating leverage shows up in the P&L.

SOFI – Lending engine, originations and the quality of the loan book

The lending franchise remains the backbone of NASDAQ:SOFI, and the numbers confirm it is scaling without sacrificing credit standards. Q4 originations reached about $10.49–10.5 billion, up roughly 46% year over year. Personal loans contributed around $7.5 billion of that, growing about 43% year over year and remaining the primary profit driver. Home-loan originations broke the $1 billion mark for the first time, almost doubling with growth around 95–96% year over year, while student-loan originations climbed to about $1.86 billion, up roughly 38% and marking the strongest quarter since early 2020. Credit performance aligns with a prime borrower base: personal-loan charge-offs sit around 2.8%, more than 50 basis points better than a year ago, and the average borrower carries a FICO score in the mid-700s with six-figure income. That places the portfolio at the high-quality end of consumer credit. At the same time, every major personal-loan sale since Q3 2023 has cleared above 105% of face value, with 2025 averages near 106%. Institutions do not repeatedly pay above par for weak paper, so that execution level is a direct validation of SoFi’s underwriting and loan quality.

SOFI – Deposit growth, funding costs and why the bank charter now matters

The balance sheet profile has shifted decisively away from the capital-markets dependence that defined the early SoFi story. Customer deposits have climbed to roughly $37.5–38 billion, with about $4.6 billion added in Q4 alone. Around 97% of direct-deposit clients treat SoFi as their primary account, which creates sticky funding at a scale that matters. The average rate paid on those deposits is approximately 181 basis points cheaper than comparable warehouse and wholesale facilities. At current balances that gap translates to nearly $680 million in annualized interest-expense savings. For NASDAQ:SOFI this means loan growth is supported by a structural funding advantage: the company can choose to hold loans when spreads are attractive, or sell when markets are paying healthy premiums, without being forced into fire-sale transactions. That flexibility is precisely what non-bank fintechs lack and is a key reason why SoFi’s lending economics are holding up even through macro noise and sector volatility.

SOFI – Profitability, margins and the shift from “someday earnings” to delivered earnings

The 2025 numbers effectively ended the “can this ever be profitable?” debate. Adjusted EBITDA for the year crossed roughly $1.05 billion, up more than 58% year over year, while Q4 adjusted EBITDA reached around $318 million, up about 60% year over year. Net income hit roughly $174 million in Q4 and delivered nine straight GAAP-profitable quarters, which is not common at this growth rate in fintech. Return on tangible common equity moved to about 8% for the year from roughly 4% twelve months earlier. Management continues to target a longer-term ROTCE band of 20–30%, signalling they expect incremental profitability to improve further as scale is reached in fee-based businesses. For 2026 SoFi is guiding to adjusted EBITDA near $1.6 billion on about $4.66 billion of revenue, implying a mid-30s percentage EBITDA margin and adjusted net income around $825 million. That would equate to an 18% net margin and adjusted EPS of about $0.60, roughly 54% above 2025 levels, extending a multi-year trend of margins and earnings expanding faster than revenue.

SOFI – Fee-based engines, cross-selling and why this is more than a consumer lender

The revenue mix increasingly supports the argument that NASDAQ:SOFI is not simply a leveraged balance-sheet lender. The member base has grown to roughly 13.7 million users, up about 35% year over year, and total products have climbed to around 20.2 million. That implies the platform is deepening relationships, not just acquiring single-product accounts. Cross-sell penetration has reached roughly 40%, meaning four out of ten customers now use more than one SoFi product. Financial Services and the Technology Platform units generated around $579 million in net revenue in 2025, up more than 60% year over year, and increasingly match the lending segment in incremental growth contribution. These segments are capital-light and carry contribution margins in the 40–50% range, which is materially higher than pure lending margins. On top of that, SoFi has launched SoFi Pay, a blockchain-enabled cross-border payments product already live in more than 30 countries, and SoFi USD, a proprietary stablecoin that makes SoFi the first U.S. national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public permissionless network. If management executes on banking-as-a-service and tech-platform wins off the back of SoFi USD and the core stack, the platform begins to resemble an infrastructure provider to other institutions, not just a front-end consumer brand.

NASDAQ:SOFI – Tangible book value, dilution and per-share economics

Book value and share-count dynamics are central for a name growing as fast as NASDAQ:SOFI. Tangible book value per share has risen to about $7.01, up roughly 56–57% year over year and nearly 18% quarter over quarter. Shares outstanding stand around 1.27 billion, up roughly 16.5% year over year as a result of stock-based compensation and prior capital raises. Dilution is therefore real and must be monitored, but the fact that tangible book per share is compounding faster than the share count shows that retained earnings and asset growth are outpacing equity issuance. The risk is that if growth slows sharply while stock-based compensation remains elevated as a percentage of revenue, per-share metrics would come under pressure. For now, as long as tangible book and EPS continue to compound at double-digit rates, the capital allocation profile remains acceptable for a high-growth fintech-bank hybrid.

NASDAQ:SOFI – Valuation reset, PEG profile and how the market is pricing the growth curve

Valuation has compressed sharply from the peak even as fundamentals strengthened. At the highs in late 2025, NASDAQ:SOFI traded near 9.4x forward sales with the stock in the low-$30s. After the selloff the multiple is closer to 6.1x forward sales, near the five-year average around 5.3x and far from the extremes of the prior momentum phase. On earnings, the stock was previously valued at over 70x forward non-GAAP EPS; with 2026 EPS guided to roughly $0.60 and the share price around $20–21, the forward P/E compresses into the low-30s, dropping into the high-teens on 2028 EPS if management hits its mid-term trajectory. With consensus expecting adjusted EPS to grow at roughly a 38–40% compound rate over the next three years, the implied three-year PEG ratio is around 0.98x. That places SoFi cheaper on a growth-adjusted basis than some slower-growing payment networks and many software franchises that carry PEG ratios well above 1.5x. The market today is not paying for blue-sky optionality; it is paying a moderate premium for a business that is actually delivering growth and profitability.

SOFI – Technical picture, key support zones and sentiment washout

From a price-action perspective NASDAQ:SOFI has moved from an overextended breakout into a classic reset. The decline from the low-$30s to roughly $20 represents a drop of more than 30%, which meets the technical definition of a bear move for an individual stock. The $20 area aligns with a high-volume support band from mid-2025 where long-term holders previously accumulated. Momentum indicators have slipped into oversold territory and daily volumes have started to stabilize after the heaviest selling. As long as the stock holds the high-teens to $20 region, the broader uptrend from the sub-$5 lows of 2022 remains intact. A clear and sustained break below that band would signal a more serious regime shift, but current trading looks more like a sentiment flush in a volatile sector than a structural repudiation of the earnings story.

NASDAQ:SOFI – Regulatory, macro and business-model risks that can change the thesis

The risk profile for NASDAQ:SOFI remains elevated and must be weighed against the growth opportunity. On the regulatory side, proposals to cap credit-card APRs and reshape consumer fees could reshape U.S. consumer finance economics. If large banks are forced to lower card rates aggressively, one path is that overall credit availability tightens, which could reduce refinancing demand and pressure the spread between SoFi’s personal-loan rates and card APRs. Alternatively, pressure on traditional banks could accelerate customer migration toward technology-first platforms, enhancing SoFi’s competitive position. Macro risk sits in the background: a sharp rise in unemployment or a meaningful deterioration in household balance sheets would push charge-offs higher toward management’s 7–8% stress-case tolerance band and would compress lending contribution margins. There is also funding and capital-markets risk if the appetite for SoFi’s loan tranches at 105–106% of par were to weaken, forcing the company to hold more loans on balance sheet for longer. Finally, heavy stock-based compensation and share issuance must trend down as a percentage of net revenue over time to protect per-share value; if SBC remains structurally high while growth slows, equity returns would be diluted even if the business continues to expand in absolute terms.

NASDAQ:SOFI – Insider activity, institutional stance and the S&P 500 inclusion angle

Insider behavior and institutional positioning act as confirmation or contradiction of the fundamental story. The next place to watch is the dedicated SOFI insider transactions section and the broader SOFI stock profile to see whether senior executives are accumulating or distributing near current prices. At the same time, large banks and sell-side houses have started to shift from skepticism to endorsement, with recent upgrades to overweight and price targets in the low-$30s signalling that institutional analysts believe the pullback has overshot on the downside. With nine consecutive GAAP-profitable quarters, quarterly revenue now above $1 billion and 2026 net income guidance above $800 million, NASDAQ:SOFI is also moving into the territory where S&P 500 inclusion becomes realistic if execution continues. That would create a structural bid from index funds and benchmarked products that need to own new entrants once they are added.

NASDAQ:SOFI – Overall positioning of the stock after the correction

Bringing the key metrics together, NASDAQ:SOFI is compounding adjusted net revenue around 30% annually, pushing EPS up close to 40% per year on management’s roadmap, and has shifted from a capital-markets-dependent lender to a deposit-funded bank-fintech hybrid with a growing fee-based and tech-platform engine. Tangible book value per share is rising more than 50% year over year despite dilution, and the company has moved through nine straight GAAP-profitable quarters while guiding to roughly $825 million of net income and about $1.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The stock, meanwhile, has re-rated from more than 9x forward sales and a P/E above 70x to around 6x sales and a low-30s forward P/E on 2026 earnings, with a sub-1x three-year PEG. The business still carries high-beta exposure to regulatory shifts and the consumer credit cycle, but after the selloff the valuation now reflects a significant discount to the earnings and growth profile rather than an overextended momentum premium.

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