Oil Price Forecast – WTI CL=F Stalls Near $60 While Brent BZ=F Holds Around $64

WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F – Oil Trading Near $60–$65 Inside A Bearish Surplus Regime

Spot Levels And Curve Position For WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F

West Texas Intermediate WTI CL=F is trading just below the psychological $60 mark, around $59–$60 per barrel, with the latest move showing roughly a 1.2% rise from about $59.00 toward $59.91. Brent BZ=F is sitting in the mid-$60s, around $64–$65, with an intraday gain of roughly 0.5% from about $64.13 to $64.50. Both benchmarks remain comfortably under the recent geopolitics-driven peaks near $62.20 for WTI CL=F and around $66.70 for BZ=F, and both contracts are still confined inside a descending price channel that started after the 2022 spike. The forward curve reflects that reality: modest near-term tightness around prompt dates, but structurally weak pricing further out as surplus barrels continue to dominate the medium-term narrative.

Geopolitical Premium Around WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F – Iran, Hormuz And Black Sea Risk

The latest spike in WTI CL=F and BZ=F was launched by the threat of U.S. strikes on Iran. Brent briefly pushed to almost $67, its highest level since early October, while WTI tagged the $62.20 area. Markets priced not only the risk of lost Iranian exports – which reached roughly 1.9 million barrels per day in the autumn – but also the possibility that Tehran might threaten traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling close to 20 million barrels per day and roughly a quarter of global seaborne crude flows. That is the fulcrum of the system; any credible threat there commands an immediate premium in BZ=F and CL=F.
That premium has already started to bleed out. Once the U.S. president signaled that Iran’s crackdown on protests was softening and downplayed the near-term probability of military strikes, Brent shed about $3 in a single session and WTI CL=F rolled over from the spike high back under $60. Prices have recovered some of the loss, but the tone shifted from “imminent strike” to “contained tension.” At the same time, drone attacks on tankers and infrastructure in the Black Sea have taken a concrete toll: Kazakhstan reported about a 35% plunge in output over the first half of January after strikes that also hit Caspian Pipeline Consortium assets. Kazakhstan is now asking the U.S. and EU for help securing exports, which confirms supply risk is real but localized rather than systemic.

Sanctions, Russian Caps And Venezuelan Flows Weighing On BZ=F And CL=F

Policy moves around sanctioned producers add another layer. The European Union is preparing to cut its price cap on Russian crude to $44.10 per barrel from next month, attempting to reduce Moscow’s oil income by tying Western insurance to that ceiling. So far, the cap has not crippled Russian revenues, but it forces Russian barrels to move via shadow fleets, re-flagged tankers and non-Western insurers, distorting logistics rather than removing barrels.
In parallel, Washington has effectively embedded itself deeper into Venezuela’s oil sector. U.S. officials confirmed an initial sale of Venezuelan crude worth about $500 million and signaled that more cargoes will follow. That sends barrels back into the Atlantic basin that had been partially forced out of mainstream flows. For WTI CL=F and BZ=F this is unambiguously bearish at the margin, even if Venezuelan infrastructure limitations mean the ramp is slow. The message to the market is simple: sanctioned oil is not disappearing, it is re-routing, and it is reinforcing the supply cushion that already exists.

Structural Oversupply – 2.3 Million b/d Surplus Hangs Over WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F

Behind the daily headlines sits a single dominant figure: an expected surplus of about 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026. Major investment-bank scenarios now assume that global crude supply exceeds demand by that magnitude unless a major disruption or fresh OPEC+ cut intervenes. This comes after Brent shed around 20% of its value in the previous year, even with sporadic geopolitical flares.
Inventory data back up the surplus story. Crude “on water” climbed to roughly 1.3 billion barrels in December, the highest level since the 2020 lockdown period. That volume equals about two weeks of global demand parked on tankers. In the absence of a genuine supply shock, that level of floating stock is not consistent with a sustained rally in BZ=F or CL=F. The U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency still project additional production growth for 2026, even as demand growth is clipped by efficiency gains, EV penetration and uneven macro data. The result is a market that consistently fades spikes toward the low-$60s in WTI CL=F and mid-$60s in BZ=F because the medium-term math still points toward excess supply.

Role Of Sanctioned Barrels And 1.3 Billion Barrels On Water

The 1.3 billion barrels floating at sea are not all freely available. Roughly a quarter of that oil comes from Russia, Iran and Venezuela – producers constrained by sanctions and price caps. These barrels often move via opaque trades, ship-to-ship transfers and extended routes, creating a lag between loading and final discharge. They are harder to track and slower to clear, which inflates the headline “on water” figure.
However, they do eventually land. That is the critical point for BZ=F and CL=F. Discounted Russian grades still reach India, China and other willing buyers. Venezuelan heavy crude is being blended and resold under U.S. oversight. Iranian barrels keep slipping into Asia on dark fleets. The tanker backlog therefore overstates how much oil is actually “stuck” but underlines that the system has more movable supply than the official numbers imply. For pricing, that means any dip in demand or pause in Chinese stockpiling can quickly translate into visible inventory builds in OECD hubs and renewed pressure on benchmarks.

China, EV Adoption And Demand Risk For BZ=F And CL=F

On the demand side, the picture is noisy rather than catastrophic. Chinese customs data show record crude imports both in December and across 2025, as refiners took advantage of lower prices and Beijing opportunistically rebuilt stocks. That has provided an important floor under BZ=F and CL=F. But there are signs that part of this strength reflects inventory games rather than pure end consumption. China has reportedly drawn down reserves in order to reshuffle stocks and exploit arbitrage windows.
Going forward, the risk is that China steps back from aggressive stockpiling. If Chinese buyers reduce incremental purchases and allow more surplus to redirect into OECD storage, inventory levels in Europe and the United States will move from comfortable to clearly swollen. At the same time, Chinese and European EV adoption is steadily eroding the growth rate of gasoline and diesel demand. Germany’s relaunch of a multi-billion EV subsidy program is one example of policy that caps road-fuel growth even if total vehicle miles rise. Over a three- to five-year horizon, this takes several hundred thousand barrels per day off the upside case for demand, reinforcing the argument that BZ=F and CL=F need lower prices to clear excess supply if there is no major shock.

U.S. Shale, OPEC+ And Production Trajectory For WTI CL=F

On the supply side, the character of U.S. shale has changed. Producers are now explicit that they will not chase volume with WTI CL=F near $50. They want price stability closer to the upper $50s and $60s before committing fresh capital. The latest U.S. Short-Term Energy Outlook points to domestic crude output flattening this year and starting to edge lower into 2027. That removes the most aggressive marginal supplier that drove prior down-cycles.
Yet globally, production growth does not vanish. OPEC+ has paused the unwinding of the 2022 support cuts but is still pumping at levels that leave room for an oversupplied market once sanctioned barrels, Venezuelan flows and Kazakh exports are fully accounted for. Nigeria continues to miss quotas, but others are filling gaps. Add in the U.S. decision to refill some strategic reserves with heavy grades, including Venezuelan blends, and the net effect is a system where there is still more crude than demand growth justifies at current prices. For WTI CL=F, that combination is why rallies into the low-$60s keep stalling.

Technical Framework For WTI CL=F – Resistance At $62.20, Support Between $58 And $49

From a weekly log chart, WTI CL=F is trading below a key resistance zone at $62.20. That level marks the geopolitics spike high during the Iran scare and aligns with the mid-line of a duplicated descending channel drawn between the June 2025 high and the December 2025 low. Price is still below that mid-line and the weekly RSI remains under the 50 neutral mark, confirming a neutral-to-bearish bias rather than an emerging bull trend.
If CL=F can produce a weekly close above $62.20 and hold, upside targets cluster around $64.70, which marks the upper boundary of the 2025–2026 down-channel, and then around $66.90, where the broader downtrend from 2023 is currently capping the market. In that band hedging from producers and selling from macro funds would likely accelerate, given the backdrop of a forecast 2.3 million b/d surplus.
On the downside, $58 is the first critical support and $55 the second. A clean break and sustained trade below $55 would expose the lower channel boundary near $53 and then around $49. Those levels correspond to prior 2023–2024 lows and to the region where U.S. shale executives have indicated that new investment becomes unattractive. In other words, the $49–$53 region in WTI CL=F is where the physical system forces a response if prices stay there long enough.

Technical Framework For Brent BZ=F – Holding Above $58, Capped Below $66.60–$70

For Brent BZ=F, the monthly log structure tells a similar story. Price trades in the mid-$60s, around $64–$65, above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 surge. That places the primary structural support at $58 for Brent, mirroring the $55 line in WTI. As long as BZ=F holds above $58 on a monthly closing basis, the long-term structure remains a controlled downtrend rather than a breakdown.
On the topside, the first reference level is the recent geopolitics high near $66.60. A sustained break beyond that point is needed to test the upper trend channel between roughly $67.80 and $68.79, with the $70 round number sitting just beyond as a sentiment pivot. Without a genuine supply shock, the combination of high tanker stocks, the 2.3 million b/d surplus projection and record Chinese imports that are partly stock-driven makes it difficult for Brent to live comfortably above $70. Any move into that region is likely to attract both producer hedging and demand destruction.
If BZ=F loses $58 and closes below it, technical targets align with the fundamental oversupply narrative. Projections cluster around $51–$49, where the lower boundary of the downtrend from December 2023 resides. That is the zone where longer-term buyers would likely re-enter and where OPEC+ pressure to cut more aggressively would spike.

Derivatives, Timespreads And Sentiment Around CL=F And BZ=F

Options and spreads confirm the cautious stance in WTI CL=F and BZ=F. CME data for March 2026 crude options show put volume exceeding call volume, with both overall volume and open interest drifting lower. This points to a market that is hedging downside risk rather than positioning for an explosive rally. Speculative participation has thinned as traders tire of whipsaws driven by changing headlines on Iran, sanctions, tariffs and macro data.
The term structure tells a more nuanced story. The prompt ICE Brent timespread has remained relatively firm even as flat price softened, indicating localized tightness in near-dated barrels. Disruptions such as reduced Kazakh flows through the CPC terminal are keeping the front of the curve from collapsing into deep contango. But further along the curve, spreads flatten and soften, reflecting expectations of comfortable or excessive inventories by late 2026 if the projected 2.3 million b/d surplus materializes. The implication for BZ=F and CL=F is clear: the market is prepared for volatility, but it is not structurally positioned for a sustained bull run.

Balancing Oversupply And Geopolitics – Oil Price View On WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F

Combining the data, WTI CL=F near $59–$60 and Brent BZ=F near $64–$65 are pricing a modest premium for Iran, Black Sea risk, Venezuelan uncertainty and Russian sanctions, but the dominant driver is still surplus supply. The 2.3 million b/d surplus forecast for 2026, the 1.3 billion barrels of crude afloat, the re-emergence of Venezuelan exports under U.S. management and the continuing flow of Russian and Iranian barrels via alternative routes all argue for a ceiling on rallies unless a large, lasting disruption occurs. At the same time, producer pain thresholds and structural supports between $53 and $49 in CL=F and $51–$49 in BZ=F argue against a one-way collapse. In that band, U.S. shale activity would be cut back more aggressively and OPEC+ would likely be forced into deeper cuts.

Verdict For Oil – WTI CL=F And Brent BZ=F Rated Sell On Strength With Bearish Bias

Given current prices around $59 in WTI CL=F and $64–$65 in Brent BZ=F, projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026, 1.3 billion barrels on water, the first $500 million Venezuelan cargo sold and more to come, localized disruptions in Kazakhstan and the Black Sea, Chinese imports at records but partially stock-driven, and technical structures that cap WTI below $62.20 and Brent below roughly $66.60–$70, the risk-reward profile is skewed to the downside. At these levels, oil does not justify a core long exposure. The more rational strategy is to treat WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F as Sell on strength instruments, with rallies into the $62–$66 zone in WTI and the $66.60–$70 band in Brent as opportunities to reduce length or add hedges. The more attractive accumulation window for medium-term longs sits lower, around $53–$49 for WTI CL=F and $51–$49 for Brent BZ=F, where technical support, producer discipline and probable OPEC+ intervention converge. Until prices approach those lower bands or a major supply shock breaks the surplus narrative, the stance on oil remains bearish with a Sell bias, not a Buy or neutral Hold, at the current $59–$65 range.

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