Oil Price Forecast: WTI Stays Near $63 As Brent Climbs Toward $70 On War Premium

Oil Price Forecast: WTI (CL=F) And Brent (BZ=F) Between War Premium And Surplus Risk

WTI (CL=F) Price Structure Around $62–64: Risk Premium Holding A Bearish Channel

WTI (CL=F) is trading in the low 60s, with spot swings around $62–63.50 after a sharp rebound from a nearly 5.3% drop that briefly pushed the market toward the $61–62 zone. The VT snapshot shows WTI at $62.45, reclaiming all key moving averages as the 21-day and 50-day SMAs complete a bullish crossover, while price sits just above the 200-day SMA at $61.95 and the shorter-term 21-day SMA near $60.47. Trend strength is confirmed by an ADX around 32.8, and the RSI remains in bullish territory rather than stretched, signaling a trend that has renewed energy instead of fading out. At the same time, Oilprice quotes WTI near $63.20 and Brent (BZ=F) around $67.44–67.51, confirming that crude has bounced into a zone where the chart and the macro narrative are now clashing.

Geopolitics: Strait Of Hormuz Risk Keeps A War Premium In WTI (CL=F) And Brent (BZ=F)

Front-month crude is being supported by live U.S.–Iran tension around the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. carrier group shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached in the Arabian Sea, and separate reports describe Iranian gunboats moving toward a U.S.-flagged tanker north of Oman. Those incidents hit exactly where the physical system is most vulnerable: Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq ship most of their crude through Hormuz, and any misstep in that corridor immediately threatens several million barrels per day of seaborne flows. CNBC’s tape reflects this, with Brent (BZ=F) at $67.51 and WTI at $63.43, showing modest percentage gains on the day despite a broader equity selloff that normally caps rallies. Without the Middle East tension, broker commentary is clear: oil would be lower because the underlying supply-demand balance is not tight enough to justify a sustained risk-free rally from the low 60s.

Inventory Data: U.S. Draws Above 11 Million Barrels Signal Real Tightness At The Margin

The U.S. inventory picture has shifted from neutral to supportive. Industry figures indicate a crude stock draw in excess of 11 million barrels in a single week, where analysts had been looking for a modest build. That is a material surprise for the largest producer-consumer in the world and marks a clear inflection from the balanced pattern seen through much of 2025. On the official side, the latest EIA reports show repeated weekly draws, confirming that the U.S. system is now in a phase where consumption plus exports are running ahead of production and imports. This is the third consecutive week of significant draws, not a one-off anomaly, and it is happening as the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk hotspot. The combination of physical route risk plus hard inventory tightening explains why WTI (CL=F) is holding above the 200-day moving average instead of slipping back into the high-50s as pure macro models would imply.

Macro Demand: IEA Growth Upgrade, U.S.–India Trade Deal And Emerging Asia

On the demand side, the narrative for Oil in 2026 is driven by steady, not explosive, growth. The IEA has upgraded its global demand growth projection to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day for 2026, underpinned by two pillars that already show up in trade flows. First, international air travel has fully re-normalized, and jet fuel demand is now a structural support rather than a recovery story. Second, industrial and petrochemical demand in emerging Asia outside China remains firm, with diesel and naphtha consumption reinforcing the call on seaborne barrels. A U.S.–India trade agreement that explicitly improves energy-related trade further locks in incremental flows into South Asia and supports a higher floor for medium-sour grades tied to these routes. At the same time, Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and sanctions pressure keep portions of Russian supply constrained or rerouted at a discount, tightening some parts of the Atlantic Basin even while headline balances still point to a surplus.

OPEC+ And The IEA: 4 mb/d Surplus Projection Caps The Upside For WTI (CL=F) And Brent (BZ=F)

The upside is constrained by the 2026 supply story. The IEA’s balance points to a potential global surplus close to 4 million barrels per day, a level that historically weighs heavily on the forward curve unless major outages occur. OPEC+ has responded by extending a pause in production increases into March, framing this as a drive for “market stability” but in reality acknowledging that pushing more barrels into this backdrop would destabilize price. The latest OPEC report reinforces a neutral view: supply and demand appear broadly balanced under base-case assumptions, with no new coordinated cuts but also no accelerated ramp-up. That leaves OPEC+ spare capacity in the background as a ceiling on any risk-driven rally. Even as tensions in the Middle East lift spot prices, the knowledge that millions of barrels per day of low-cost OPEC capacity remain off the market keeps longer-dated contracts from repricing to a new structural high.

U.S. Shale, Equinor And The End Of The Supercycle Pricing Assumption

Non-OPEC supply no longer behaves like the 2010s. U.S. shale output has plateaued around the low-13 million bpd area, with capital discipline replacing the previous growth-at-all-costs model. Majors are signaling through capital allocation that they do not expect a sustained $90–100 strip. Equinor’s 2025 results crystallize this shift: the Norwegian major’s realized liquids price dropped to $58.6 per barrel in Q4 2025 from $68.5 a year earlier, and yet the company delivered record full-year production of about 2.14 million boepd, with Q4 output near 2.20 million boepd. Despite that volume growth, Equinor has slashed its 2026 share buybacks from $5 billion to $1.5 billion, effectively resetting shareholder returns around a lower price deck. Management describes this as moving out of a natural gas and liquids “supercycle” into a normalized environment where companies “have to manage within their means”. That comment applies directly to Oil pricing: corporate planning is now anchored closer to $55–65 WTI and $60–70 Brent rather than the high-price regime that prevailed right after the pandemic.

Technical Map For WTI (CL=F): Channel Resistance At $66.60, Structural Breakout Only Above $70

The WTI (CL=F) chart is dominated by a descending channel from the 2022 highs, reinforced by a more orderly bear structure since 2023. The current rebound is the sixth attempt to break through the channel’s upper boundary, which aligns around $66.60 on the weekly log scale. Short-term, the market is back in a bullish hold above $62, with the price trading over the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs, a configuration that normally supports continuation. If WTI closes firmly above the $64.80–65.00 resistance cluster, upside opens toward $66.60, where prior rallies have failed. Only a clean weekly close above that area, followed by continuation toward the $70 threshold, would qualify as a structural breakout and signal that the multi-year downtrend has broken. On the downside, loss of $61.95 and then $60 would re-establish a bearish bias, putting $58 and $55 back on the radar, with a tail-risk extension toward the high-40s if the IEA surplus narrative gains momentum and geopolitical stress eases.

Technical Map For Brent (BZ=F): $65 Support, $70–74.50 As The Decision Zone

Brent (BZ=F) presents a parallel structure, trading near $67–68 and hugging the upper band of its own descending weekly channel. The benchmark recently pushed as high as $70.50 before pulling back and rebounding off the $65 support zone. As long as price holds above $65, the market is in a bullish penetration phase within a still-intact downtrend, repeatedly testing resistance rather than breaking down. A clean hold above $68 keeps pressure on the $70 handle, and a push through that level would place the $74.50 zone in play, defined by Fibonacci extensions built from the April 2025 low, June 2025 high and December 2025 low. That $70–74.50 corridor is the real decision area: either it delivers another rejection that sends Brent back toward $62.20 and $59.80, or it finally breaks and signals a medium-term trend shift. A sustained move below $65 would confirm renewed downside and reopen a path toward $51–49, where the lower band of the channel coincides with levels likely to attract dip-buyers focused on long-run marginal cost.

Dollar, Equities And Cross-Asset Flows: Why Rallies Keep Stalling

The DXY has turned higher even as precious metals and crude push up from recent lows, a configuration that usually reflects geopolitically driven risk-off flows rather than pure growth optimism. Equities have seen a broader selloff, with risk assets bleeding at the index level while WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) find support from headline risk and inventory data. That cross-asset backdrop caps rallies: every time crude pushes higher on a Middle East headline, the stronger dollar and weaker equity tape lean against the move. The PVM remark that “Oil would be lower without Middle Eastern sabre-rattling” captures this tension; the macro side is not confirming a runaway growth story. Instead, the tape shows a market that is repricing specific risk, not rewriting the global demand outlook.

Short-Term Trading Range For WTI (CL=F) And Brent (BZ=F): Defined Floors And Ceilings

In the near term, WTI (CL=F) is boxed into a $60–66.5 range, with $62–63 as the active pivot. The floor is anchored by the 200-day SMA at $61.95, the 21-day SMA at $60.47, and the fresh memory of the recent 5.3% selloff that exhausted sellers into that zone. The ceiling is defined by the $64.80–65.00 resistance band and the channel top at $66.60, which has already turned back multiple attempts. For Brent (BZ=F), the working corridor is $65–70, with $68 acting as the rotational center. Above those bands, crude quickly encounters macro and positioning resistance. Below them, the IEA surplus and OPEC+ neutrality come back into focus, making it difficult to argue for an unbounded collapse as long as U.S. inventories keep drawing and Hormuz remains unstable.

Direction Bias On Oil (WTI CL=F, Brent BZ=F): Cautious Bullish Stance With A Range-Bound Ceiling

Putting the numbers together, Oil is not in a clean bull market, but it is also not priced like a market drowning in oversupply. WTI (CL=F) holding in the low-60s and Brent (BZ=F) around the high-60s reflects a balanced mix of war premium, tightening U.S. inventories and disciplined OPEC+ supply, set against a structural 4 mb/d surplus projection and maturing demand growth. From a directional standpoint, the current setup justifies a cautious bullish bias rather than a deep value call. Dips toward the $60–61 WTI zone and $65 Brent are more likely to attract buying interest as long as Hormuz risk is active, U.S. draws stay sizeable and IEA demand revisions remain stable or positive. At the same time, rallies into the $66–70 WTI zone and $70–75 Brent are likely to face profit-taking and fresh hedging from producers who, like Equinor, are managing for a normalized price deck instead of a new supercycle. Under these conditions, Oil trades as a range-bound bullish bias market: upside is real but capped, downside is present but buffered, and the key drivers to watch are any shift in Hormuz tension, a break in the U.S. inventory pattern, or a material revision to the IEA’s surplus outlook.

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