Oil Price Steady: WTI at $64.24, Brent at $68.19 Await Fed Verdict

WTI and Brent Struggle to Hold Gains as Fed Decision Looms

Oil futures softened mid-week with WTI (CL=F) trading at $64.24 per barrel, down 0.43%, and Brent (BZ=F) at $68.19, lower by 0.41%. Both benchmarks are locked inside tight ranges, pressured by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut. Traders are reluctant to push prices higher without clarity from Chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. dollar’s rebound has also weighed on crude, eroding the appeal of dollar-priced commodities.

Inventory Data Sparks Volatility in Crude Oil Markets

The U.S. EIA reported a massive 9.3 million-barrel draw in crude inventories last week, bringing stockpiles to 415.4 million barrels, roughly 5% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories also fell by 2.3 million barrels, while distillates rose 4 million barrels. The API’s earlier estimate of a 3.42 million-barrel draw underestimated the scale of supply contraction, which initially pushed prices upward before fading as macro headwinds took over. These swings confirm that supply tightness persists, even as traders remain cautious about demand growth.

Geopolitical Tensions and Russian Supply Disruptions

Ukrainian drone attacks have repeatedly hit Russian refineries, forcing state pipeline operator Transneft to warn of potential production cuts, though the company later dismissed the claims as disinformation. Still, these strikes have had tangible effects on export flows, tightening physical supply into Europe. Brent briefly spiked above $69 on speculation of extended Russian losses, though the rally cooled as markets awaited U.S. policy confirmation. Traders remain highly sensitive to any escalation in the Black Sea and Baltic export routes.

OPEC+ Balancing Act and Baseline Disputes

OPEC+ faces renewed tension over production capacity baselines ahead of its next meeting. Iran has widened its crude discounts to China, undercutting Saudi barrels, while African producers lobby for higher quotas. The OPEC basket currently trades near $70.89, only modestly lower, but reflects the cartel’s struggle to balance falling Russian flows, resilient U.S. shale output, and surging Iranian exports. The risk of a contentious OPEC+ meeting could inject further volatility into Brent pricing, especially if Saudi Arabia pushes back against member overproduction.

Technical Picture for WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F)

WTI crude hovers just below the critical $65 resistance, sitting near its 50-day EMA. A break above this level would open a path toward $67.50 and the 200-day EMA at $70.16. On the downside, support lies at $62, with a failure there risking a slide back toward $60. Brent mirrors this setup, capped near $69 while support sits at $66. A sustained close above $70 would be a bullish breakout, but failure to defend $66 could reset the market lower toward $63.

Macro Headwinds and Fed’s Policy Path

Beyond geopolitics, the immediate driver is the Fed. A 25-basis-point cut is priced in, lowering the target range to 4.0%–4.25%, but the risk is whether Powell signals further easing or takes a more cautious stance. Should the Fed hint at fewer cuts in 2026, the dollar could strengthen, capping oil upside. Conversely, dovish guidance could push Brent above $70. Markets are also bracing for Trump’s trade policy adjustments, which could realign global flows if tariffs extend into energy-linked products.

Outlook: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

With WTI at $64.24 and Brent at $68.19, the market is finely balanced between bullish supply-side risks and bearish macro headwinds. Inventory draws and Russian supply disruptions argue for strength, while Fed policy uncertainty and sluggish demand cap rallies. The technicals point to range trading unless a decisive breakout occurs. At these levels, crude oil remains a Hold, with opportunistic buys near WTI $62 and Brent $66, and profit-taking advisable into $70–$71 resistance unless OPEC+ or Fed policy shifts decisively bullish.

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