Oil Rockets to $74.95 While Nasdaq Cracks—Is CL=F on a Path to $100?

Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Retreat as Middle East Escalation and Trump’s Policy Rattle Markets

U.S. stock futures slid early Tuesday, dragged down by deepening fears over Middle East instability and erratic signals from President Donald Trump. Dow Jones futures (YM=F) dropped 0.5% to 42,698, while S&P 500 E-Mini contracts (ES=F) fell 0.36% to 6,014.25. Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) were hit even harder, down 0.6% at 22,085.75.

Despite a brief risk-on bounce Monday, investor nerves frayed after Trump ordered the evacuation of Tehran and departed the G7 summit early, emphasizing that he seeks “an end, not a ceasefire.” French President Macron’s suggestions of a ceasefire were quickly undercut by Trump’s hardline rhetoric. As missile strikes between Israel and Iran resumed, equities lost footing amid fears of a broader war.

Oil Surges Past $74 as Middle East Risks Threaten Supply Chain Stability

Crude oil surged as geopolitical risk premium returned. Brent futures (BZ=F) rallied 2.35% to $74.95, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) topped $73, with both benchmarks reacting to Trump’s remarks and ongoing regional conflict. As the possibility of oil infrastructure disruption in the Middle East rises, traders priced in more upside volatility.

This renewed energy rally comes at a critical time, with the U.S. administration pushing aggressive tariff policies that may also reshape global commodity flows. European natural gas prices also climbed, bolstered by fears of retaliatory energy cuts if Iran or its allies respond to Western military or trade pressure.

Gold Nears April Record Again, But Citi Warns Rally May Fizzle Below $3,000

Gold (GC=F) remained elevated at $3,403.90, just shy of its April record. The safe-haven metal gained 4% last week alone as conflict in the Middle East escalated, and Trump's trade unpredictability reawakened fears of systemic global disruption.

However, Citigroup forecasts a retracement. Analysts expect bullion to slide to $2,500–$2,700 by H2 2026, citing easing global slowdown fears, Fed rate cuts, and fading investment flows. Spot gold traded around $3,395 in Singapore, holding firm as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index stayed flat.

Solar Sector Implodes on Senate Tax Bill: RUN, ENPH, SEDG Collapse

A brutal premarket selloff hit U.S. solar stocks after Senate Republicans proposed full phase-outs of solar and wind tax credits by 2028. SunRun (RUN) plunged over 35% to $6.25. SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) collapsed 29%, and Enphase Energy (ENPH) dropped nearly 20% to $36.85. First Solar (FSLR) also fell sharply.

The legislative shock undermines core Inflation Reduction Act incentives. While some provisions on nuclear and hydro remain intact, renewables face a major rollback that could suppress sector CAPEX and profitability. Analyst Ed Mills noted the Senate version still pressures clean energy investments, despite being “better than the House bill.”

Microsoft (MSFT) Tumbles Amid OpenAI Tensions; T-Mobile (TMUS) Drops After $4.8B SoftBank Share Sale

Big Tech also stumbled. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped over 1% in premarket as its partnership with OpenAI faced scrutiny. Wall Street Journal reports suggest OpenAI may consider accusing MSFT of anticompetitive behavior, sparking investor concerns over the AI alliance’s future.

T-Mobile (TMUS) fell 4.38% to $220.88 after SoftBank (SFTBY) sold $4.8 billion worth of shares to finance an AI investment drive. The cash injection will likely deepen SoftBank’s aggressive pivot toward artificial intelligence, but the dilution rattled TMUS holders.

Defense Stocks Gain on War Risk, While Equities Could Consolidate in Summer Lull

Amid the geopolitical unease, defense names found support. Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) each gained ~1% in premarket. L3 Harris Technologies also rose marginally as military escalation fears mounted.

JPMorgan strategist Jason Hunter flagged signs of weakening momentum in global indices. Despite a bullish recovery off April lows, several benchmarks now show “momentum divergence sell signals,” potentially setting the stage for early summer consolidation or a deeper correction if sentiment deteriorates further.

Fed Holds Fire But Tariff, Inflation Mix Puts Policy in Crossfire

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week, though traders remain unsure how rising tariffs and Trump’s fiscal plans will shape future decisions. Bank of America said investor sentiment is recovering, with bearish positioning falling sharply from April’s tariff peak. Still, Fed watchers like Bill Adams (Comerica Bank) expect a patient stance amid conflicting inflation data and geopolitical flare-ups.

Retail sales data due today may offer insight into consumer resilience. Early forecasts suggest a 0.6% drop in May, with car sales notably weak post-tariff.

Asia and Europe Dip as Trump Trade Diplomacy Flounders

Asian indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.59% as the Bank of Japan stood pat on rates and signaled a slower pace of bond purchases. South Korea’s Kospi edged higher, but China’s CSI 300 ended flat and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.34%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slid 0.57% to a three-week low, dragged down by Germany’s DAX, which fell 1.6%, and France’s CAC 40, which dropped 1.2%. UK markets shrugged off the Trump–Starmer trade deal, with FTSE 100 down 0.5%. Lack of clarity on British steel and pharma tariffs kept enthusiasm muted despite aerospace and auto relief.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Verdict: Oil and Gold Remain Buys; Solar Is a Sell; Nasdaq Faces Short-Term Pressure

Buy:

• Brent crude (BZ=F): Bullish breakout risk remains high as Middle East tensions linger. Above $74, the technical ceiling may break.

• Gold (GC=F) short-term: Geopolitical tailwinds keep $3,400+ plausible even if Citi sees long-term retreat.

Sell:

• Sunrun (RUN), Enphase (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG): Senate-led tax clawbacks crush sector confidence. Exit now.

Hold:

• S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F): Temporary pullback likely, but resilience suggests no crash unless escalation turns systemic.

That's TradingNEWS