Ripple XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD at $3.02 Eyes $4.70 Breakout on Fed Cut and ETF Bets

XRP-USD Breaks $3.00 Barrier as ETF Hopes, Fed Cut Bets, and Banking Deals Drive Momentum

Ripple’s token XRP-USD is trading at $3.02, up 4.15% on the session and marking its third straight daily gain. The move above the key $3.00 level is backed by a 99% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and Ripple’s new custody partnership with BBVA in Spain, extending its banking reach beyond Switzerland and Turkey. With a market capitalization of $178 billion and 24-hour turnover near $6.8 billion, XRP holds firm as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, showing strength at a time when Bitcoin consolidates near $111K.

Technical Structure of XRP-USD Suggests Room Toward $4.70

The breakout above the $2.96–$3.00 resistance band coincided with XRP reclaiming its 50-day EMA and overtaking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from June lows to July highs at $3.65. Volume surged to 159.6 million, nearly triple the average, confirming institutional participation in the breakout. Momentum indicators remain constructive: RSI is mid-50s, MACD nears a bullish crossover, and accumulation patterns are clear. Analysts see near-term resistance at $3.30–$3.50, with a measured move from the three-month flag formation projecting as high as $4.70, representing a 55% upside from current prices.

Macro Backdrop Boosting XRP Against Bitcoin and Ethereum

Monetary conditions remain a decisive driver. With Fed futures pricing a near-certain 25 bps cut and some traders positioning for 50 bps, the dollar’s weakening underpins flows into crypto. Institutional ETF inflows add to this backdrop. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $246 million in early September, led by BlackRock’s iShares trust at $434.3 million net inflows and Fidelity’s FBTC at $25.1 million. Bitcoin’s illiquid supply reached 14.3 million BTC, but XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, advancing 7.5% in three days compared with muted moves in BTC. This divergence reinforces XRP’s relative strength in the short run.

Ripple Expands Banking Adoption with BBVA Custody Rollout

Ripple’s announcement that it will provide digital asset custody services for BBVA Spain deepens its footprint in European banking. This follows previous integrations in Switzerland and Turkey and leverages Europe’s MiCA framework for crypto services. Cassie Craddock, Ripple’s European managing director, emphasized that MiCA clarity has emboldened banks to roll out digital asset offerings for retail and institutional clients. These incremental custody wins add to Ripple’s payment utility story, positioning XRP not just as a speculative token but as a bridge currency actively integrated into banking operations.

Whale Accumulation Confirms Institutional Positioning

Even as exchange reserves of XRP hit 12-month highs, whale activity signals confidence. Large holders added 10 million XRP within 15 minutes of Tuesday’s breakout and accumulated 340 million tokens over recent weeks, equating to over $700 million in value. This divergence—short-term selling pressure from exchanges versus long-horizon whale accumulation—indicates that strategic capital is positioning for further upside, potentially ahead of October’s SEC review of six XRP ETF applications.

On-Chain Ecosystem Health Shows Weakness Despite Price Gains

Data from DeFiLlama show that XRP Ledger TVL has slipped from $120 million to $98 million over the past two months, while daily DEX volumes hover near $2.3 million, suggesting declining developer activity and user engagement. This ecosystem stagnation contrasts with the bullish price action and whale accumulation, raising questions about sustainability if banking partnerships and ETF approvals fail to materialize. XRP’s value proposition remains tied heavily to institutional adoption rather than grassroots DeFi traction.

Forward Projections for XRP-USD Into 2025

Forecasts remain wide. Base-case technical projections call for a test of $3.30–$3.60, with a successful push unlocking the $4.70 measured target. Bullish institutional scenarios project $5–$8 by late 2025, and more aggressive ETF-driven models cite ranges of $10–$15, echoing Standard Chartered’s earlier notes. Conservative bearish cases point to a slip under $2.88 if support fails, with risk of retesting $2.70 lows from late summer.

Verdict on XRP-USD

Ripple’s XRP-USD stands at the center of macro and structural catalysts. A Fed rate cut and banking expansion are bolstering price, whales are accumulating aggressively, and ETF approvals in October could reshape liquidity dynamics. Risks lie in ecosystem stagnation and exchange inflows, but the chart setup favors bulls in the near term. At $3.02, XRP is a Buy with targets at $3.50 and $4.70, while longer-term holders can position for potential $8–$10 levels into 2025 if ETFs and bank adoption align.

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