Ripple XRP Price Set for Breakout as SEC Update and ETF Flows Converge

Ripple XRP Price Set for Breakout as SEC Update and ETF Flows Converge

Whale accumulation, Fibonacci extensions, and the looming legal deadline create a make-or-break moment for Ripple’s token, targeting $5.50 and beyond | That's TradingNEWS

TradingNEWS Archive 8/5/2025 9:30:07 PM
Crypto XRP USD

Recent On-Chain Momentum Ignites XRP-USD Rally

July unfolded as one of the most explosive periods in XRP’s history, with the token rocketing from just under $2.90 to a 12-month peak of $3.84, a leap exceeding 65 percent between July 6 and July 18. That surge pulverized the $3.00 psychological barrier and set off a $33 million one-minute volume spike, underscoring the ferocity of the move. Even as XRP-USD retraced to $2.95, sustained support between $2.90 and $3.00 has held firm, signaling that buyers remain firmly in control at those levels. Net ETF inflows topped $300 million into leveraged XRP vehicles, while August began with price action consolidating above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $3.10—evidence that on-chain conviction is far from exhausted.

Regulatory Countdown and ETF Approval Prospects

All eyes are fixed on August 15, the date the SEC must file its next brief in the Ripple case. Legal strategists posit that any sign of an appeal withdrawal or settlement could instantly reclassify XRP-USD as a non-security, removing a valuation overhang that has capped speculative appetite. Parallel to the court drama, the debut of the ProShares XRP futures ETF on July 18 and over a dozen spot-XRP ETF applications—ranging from Bitwise to Grayscale—have pushed prediction markets to price in an 80 percent-plus probability of spot-ETF approval by year-end. The convergence of regulatory clarity and institutional product launches could provide the spark for XRP to revisit $4.20 resistance and, ultimately, challenge its all-time high at $3.84.

Whale Flows and Institutional Engagement

Deep-pocketed holders have been both fueling and tempering the breakout. Whale wallets collectively withdrew over $2.1 billion in sell orders during the rally, even as leveraged longs worth $14 million appeared on major exchanges. This dichotomy suggests that while smart money positions for upside into legal catalysts, some larger holders are locking in profits ahead of binary events. Despite intermittent sell-side pressure, daily net accumulation by seasoned addresses has outnumbered distribution on half of trading days since the July leg up, reinforcing the view that core support lies near $3.00 and that sustained consolidation above that mark often presages the next leg higher.

Technical Landscape: Fibonacci, Patterns, and Key Levels

XRP-USD has broken free of a multi-year triangle formation, with the RSI perched above 61 and the MACD histogram flashing fresh green bars. Immediate resistance sits at $3.84, the July high, with the 50 percent Fibonacci extension pointing to $4.46 and the 61.8 percent extension at $3.80—levels that coincide with the first real breakout hurdle in several Elliott Wave counts. Should XRP hold $3.00, a push through $3.84 could accelerate a test of $5.53, the 169.8 percent extension, while longer-term fan-based targets extend into the $6.00–$8.00 zone. Conversely, failure below the 50 EMA near $2.76 risks a retest of $2.60, the secondary support level where buyers reentered aggressively in mid-July.

Alternative Payment Narratives Challenge XRP

Emerging PayFi protocols such as Remittix have begun siphoning attention from XRP’s cross-border thesis. Having raised $18 million and sold 579 million tokens, Remittix enables direct crypto-to-fiat transfers without centralized on-ramps. Its upcoming wallet beta on September 15 threatens to reallocate capital from XRP’s utility narrative to a faster, more narrowly focused payments solution. Simultaneously, supportive stablecoin legislation in the U.S. has positioned Ripple’s RLUSD to capture yield-seeking flows that could drive higher burn rates on the XRP ledger and boost transaction volume. These competing value propositions underscore that XRP must reclaim and hold $3.50 quickly to fend off narrative drift.

Medium to Long-Term Forecasts and Price Targets

Machine learning models anticipate XRP reaching $3.12 by August 31, 2025—an outcome that looks conservative against current momentum. CoinCodex projects a 2026 floor of $3.00, average levels near $3.88, and highs approaching $4.95, implying a 63.25 percent return from today’s $3.03. Beyond that, 2027 and 2028 targets of $6.21–$7.18 reflect anticipated enterprise adoption of RippleNet and ODL corridors, while long-range forecasts to 2030 span $8.00–$15.00, driven by potential CBDC integrations and tokenized financial infrastructure. The most ambitious logarithmic analyses, like EGRAG Crypto’s $48.90 target, rest on historic parabolic blow–offs but carry commensurate risk. Standard Chartered sees $12.25 in five years, Morningstar predicts $6.15 in ten, and a consensus of professional Elliott Wave and Fibonacci studies center $5.00–$7.00 as the next major plateau.

Decision and Recommendation

Given the convergence of on-chain accumulation, looming regulatory catalysts, proliferating institutional ETF products, and a clear technical uptrend, XRP-USD merits a buy stance for investors with a tolerance for event-driven volatility. Maintaining stops below $2.90 guards against downside while positioning for a surge toward $4.46 and beyond once legal clarity arrives. Overweights in XRP remain justified until proven otherwise, with a medium-term price expectation centered on $5.50 and a longer-term potential toward $10.00 as institutional adoption solidifies.

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